2025 forecast contests -- enter for June 2025 contest, adding seasonal max (deadline 06z June 1st)

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts for May 2025

 

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA

 

wxallannj__________________________+2.5 _+2.5 _+2.5 __ +3.5 _+1.3 _+1.2 __+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.3

BKViking ___________(-2%)_________+2.3 _+2.3 _+2.1 __ +1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+2.0 _+1.3 _+1.3

RJay ________________(-2%)________ +2.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.5 __ 0.0 _+1.5

wxdude64 ________________________ +1.8 _+1.9 _+1.7 __ +2.1 _+1.4 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.5 _+0.4

DonSutherland1 ___________________ +1.7 _+1.7 _+1.7 __+1.3 _+0.8 _+0.9 __+0.2 _-0.8 _+0.2

Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

___ Consensus ___________________+1.5 _+1.6_+1.7 __+1.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+0.5 _+0.5

StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.4 _+1.6 _+1.8 __ +2.9 _+0.4 _-0.6 __+1.1 _ +0.1 _+1.0

so_whats_happening ______________+1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 __+1.9 _+0.5 _-0.2 __+1.5 _+0.3 _+0.5

Roger Smith _______________________ +1.3 _+1.4 _+1.5 __+1.2 _+0.7 _+0.5 __+2.7 _+1.0 _+1.5

RodneyS __________________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.4 __ -1.8 _ +0.2 _+0.7 __+1.0 _-0.2 _-0.6

hudsonvalley21 ____________________+0.8 _+0.6 _+0.3 __ +1.4 _+1.7 _+1.2 __+1.8 _+2.1 _-0.2

Tom _______________________________ +0.6 _+0.8 _+0.8 __+1.1 _+0.4 _+0.9 __+0.8 _+0.5 _+0.7

___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0

______

Persistence (Apr 2025) _____________+3.5 _+1.6 _+2.2 __+1.1 _+4.5 _+4.6 __+1.7 _+1.4 _+0.8

==================

Normal is lower than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL, DEN

[Roger Smith]

<<< SNOWFALL CONTEST FINAL REPORT ?? >>>

(probably our final update, will keep an eye on DEN just in case)

 

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

 

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

____________________

To date _____ (May 15) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

 

__Scoring update (in order)__

_ underlined errors are forecasts lower than actual ... rest are forecasts higher than actual to date _

 

Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL

 

_01__hudsonvalley21 ___________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5

_02 __so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __20.8 ____8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___ 64.1

(02.1)_Persistence (2023-2024)__6.9__ 5.4__18.3 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3

_03 __Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6

 

_04 __wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____7.7 _ 1.7 __ 12.3 ___ 92.3

_05 __Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3

(5.3)___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 __ 99.1

_06 __BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___ 110.1

 

(6.2)___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6

_07 __RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5

_08 __RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___ 118.4

_09 __Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0 _ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___ 131.6

_10 __wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2 _ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5

_11 __Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4

(will post final comments at end of May)

 

[Roger Smith]

Tracking anomalies and projections ...

_____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

___ anom 1-15 ______ +3.5 _ +2.8 _ +3.0 ___+1.0 _ +0.1 _ +1.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.2 _ -0.5

___ p anom 1-31 ____ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.5 __ +3.0 _ +1.5 __ 0.0

___ anom 1-31 ______ -0.3 _ -0.5 _ +0.5 ___ -2.6 _ +1.0 _ +3.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ -0.5

[Roger Smith]

 

Preliminary scoring for May 2025

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTAL

 

wxallannj________________________ 50 _ 40 _ 60 _ 150 _ 00 _ 94 _ 74 _ 208 _ 458 _ 60 _ 80 _ 94 __ 234 ___ 692

BKViking ___________(-2%)_______53 _ 43 _ 67 _ 163 _ 20 _100 _ 70 _ 252 _ 520 _ 80 _ 96 _ 74 __ 250 ___ 770 (754)

RJay ________________(-2%)______ 69 _ 39 _ 59 _ 167 _ 08 _100 _ 70 _ 240 _ 490 _ 70 _ 70 _ 70 __ 210 ___ 700 (689)

wxdude64 ______________________ 74 _ 52 _ 76 _ 202 _ 06 _ 92 _ 72 _ 232 _ 506 _ 70 _ 80 _ 92 __ 242 ___ 748

DonSutherland1 _________________ 76 _ 56 _ 76 _ 208 _ 22 _ 96 _ 68 _ 248 _ 524 _ 44 _ 54 _ 96 __ 194 ___ 718

Scotty Lightning ________________ 70 _ 70 _ 90 _ 230 _ 28 _ 80 _ 90 _ 260 _ 520 _ 60 _100 _ 90 __ 250 ___ 770

___ Consensus _________________70 _ 58 _ 76 _ 204 _ 20 _100 _ 70 _ 252 _ 526 _ 66 _ 80 _ 90 __ 236 ___ 762

StormchaserChuck _____________ 72 _ 58 _ 74 _ 204 _ 00 _ 88 _ 38 _ 178 _ 448 _ 62 _ 72 _ 80 __ 214 ____ 662

so_whats_happening ____________72 _ 58 _ 76 _ 206 _ 10 _ 90 _ 46 _ 208 _ 480 _ 70 _ 76 _ 90 __ 236 ___ 716

Roger Smith _____________________74 _ 58 _ 80 _ 212 _ 24 _ 94 _ 60 _ 240 _ 514 _ 94 _ 90 _ 70 __ 254 ____ 768

RodneyS ________________________ 80 _ 70 _ 98 _ 248 _ 84 _ 84 _ 64 _ 202 _ 440 _ 60 _ 66 _ 88 __214 ____ 654

hudsonvalley21 __________________84 _ 78 _ 96 _ 258 _ 20 _ 86 _ 74 _ 242 _ 466 _ 76 _ 88 _ 98 __ 262 ___ 728

Tom _____________________________88 _ 74 _ 94 _ 256 _ 26 _ 88 _ 68 _ 244 _ 478 _ 56 _ 80 _ 86 __ 222 ___ 700

___ Normal______________________100 _ 90 _ 90 _ 280 _ 48 _ 80 _ 50 _ 220 _ 410 _ 40 _ 70 _100 __ 210 ___ 620

______

Persistence (Apr 2025) __________30 _ 58 _ 66 _ 154 _ 26 _ 30 _ 58 _ 176 _ 440 _ 74 _ 98 _ 84 __ 256 ___ 696

==============================

Extreme forecasts

 

 

[so_whats_happening]

On 5/15/2025 at 8:14 PM, Roger Smith said:

<<< SNOWFALL CONTEST FINAL REPORT ?? >>>

(probably our final update, will keep an eye on DEN just in case)

 

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___ 38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___49.0_ 6.3_87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0 __ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.3

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __57.4 _ 5.8 _91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

 

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

____________________

To date _____ (May 15) _______ 14.9__12.9 _28.1 ___17.6 _28.7__ 77.2 ___ 47.7 __2.3 __75.7 ____305.1

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

 

__Scoring update (in order)__

_ underlined errors are forecasts lower than actual ... rest are forecasts higher than actual to date _

 

Rank _FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_DTW_BUF ___ DEN_SEA_BTV ___ TOTAL

 

_01__hudsonvalley21 ___________ 2.1 _ 8.1 __ 0.1 _____ 8.4 __ 4.7 __ 24.8 ____ 3.3 _ 1.7 __ 8.3 ___ 61.5

_02 __so_whats_happening ______ 1.9 _ 6.1 __ 6.9 ____ 11.4 __ 2.3 __20.8 ____8.7 _ 0.7 __ 5.3 ___ 64.1

(02.1)_Persistence (2023-2024)__6.9__ 5.4__18.3 ___ 4.6 __ 5.2 ____5.9 ____ 3.1 _2.0 _ 14.9 ___ 66.3

_03 __Don Sutherland1 ___________ 6.9 _ 3.6 __6.9 ___ 22.4 _ 16.3 __ 17.8 ____7.3 _ 5.7 __ 0.7 ___ 87.6

 

_04 __wxallannj __________________ 10.1_ 17.1 __ 5.9 ___ 14.4 __ 6.3 __ 16.8 ____7.7 _ 1.7 __ 12.3 ___ 92.3

_05 __Scotty Lightning ___________ 5.1 _ 12.1 __ 1.9 ___ 17.4 __ 1.3 __ 28.8 ____ 2.7 _0.7 _ 24.3 ___ 94.3

(5.3)___ Consensus ____________ 0.1 _ 10.7 _ 6.7 ___ 17.4 __8.0 __27.0 ____ 9.7 _ 3.5 _16.0 __ 99.1

_06 __BKViking ___________________ 2.9_ 14.1 _ 15.9 ___ 12.4 __ 0.7 __ 20.8 ___ 7.3 _11.7 __24.3 ___ 110.1

 

(6.2)___ Normal 1991-2020 ____ 1.2 _ 16.9_ 21.1 ___ 20.8 _ 16.3 __16.5 ___ 3.0_ 4.0__11.8 ___ 111.6

_07 __RJay _______________________10.9 _ 0.9 _21.9 ___ 11.4 __ 6.3 __ 22.8 ___ 12.3_ 3.7 _ 24.3 ___ 114.5

_08 __RodneyS ____________________9.1 _ 9.1 _ 10.4 ___ 24.9 _ 16.3 __ 21.8 ____8.6 _ 7.2 __ 8.9 ___ 118.4

_09 __Tom ________________________11.3_ 25.2_ 14.3 ___ 20.0 _ 13.6 _ 25.4 ___ 10.0 _ 4.1 __ 7.7 ___ 131.6

_10 __wxdude64 _________________ 3.9_ 23.3_ 16.2 ___ 20.2 _ 12.6 _ 45.7 ___23.5 _ 5.1 _27.0 ___ 177.5

_11 __Roger Smith ________________ 1.4_ 19.1 _ 18.9 ___ 33.0 _ 23.5 _ 51.1 ___ 43.0_ 0.8_ 33.6 ___ 224.4

(will post final comments at end of May)

 

Oh man that was close. Congrats @hudsonvalley21

As always thanks Roger!

[hudsonvalley21]

On 5/20/2025 at 7:34 AM, so_whats_happening said:

Oh man that was close. Congrats @hudsonvalley21

As always thanks Roger!

Thanks, yes it was real close. Also, thanks Rodger for your time and efforts 

[Roger Smith]

June contest, with seasonal max added, begins now ... will add annual scoring update to this post, May scoring post already exists (for final edit June 1st) before snowfall contest posts above ...

[Scotty Lightning]

June

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0       0.5        0.5     1.0      1.5       0.5      2.0     0.5

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.2      2.3     2.6         0.5       2.1      1.3         0.7      1.8      0.7 

 

June

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.6      2.2      2.3         2.6      0.2     0.8       0.4      1.3       0.5

[bkviking]

DCA:  +2.1

NYC:  +2.2

BOS:  +2.1

ORD:  +1.9

ATL:  +0.3

IAH:  +0.5

DEN:  +1.8

PHX:  +1.0

SEA:  +1.9

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  +2.4

NYC:  +2.4

BOS:  +2.0

ORD:  +1.4

ATL:  +1.2

IAH:  +1.0

DEN:  +0.7

PHX:  +2.5

SEA:  +0.2

[Tom]

DCA:  +1.8       101

NYC:  +1.6        99

BOS:  +1.7         98

ORD:  +1.1        102

ATL:  +1.7        103

IAH:  +0.9       105

DEN:  +0.5      101

PHX:  +2.1       118

SEA:  +0.8       96

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA:  +1.6

NYC:  +1.8

BOS:  +2.0

ORD:  +0.8

ATL:  +0.6

IAH:  +0.7

DEN:  +2.5

PHX:  +2.7

SEA:  +1.0

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +0.8

NYC:  +1.2

BOS:  +1.4

ORD:  +0.4

ATL:  +0.8

IAH:  + 0.5

DEN:  -0.4

PHX:  +0.4

SEA:  +0.9

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     1.1        1.0         -1.8    -0.7     1.2        0.1       0.1       1.1

[Rjay]

DCA: +2.5

 

NYC: +2.5

 

BOS: +2.5

 

ORD: +2.5

 

ATL: +1.5

 

IAH: +2.0

 

DEN: +1.0

 

PHX: +1.0

 

SEA: +1.0

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+1.7    +1.6     +2.1       +1.4     +1.1    +1        +2.1    +1.3    +2.1

[Roger Smith]

+3.0 for all exc west (3 stn) +1.5

102 _ 100 _ 100 __ 101 _ 102 _ 107 __ 107 _ 120 _ 99

(add your seasonal max forecasts, by 6-10 is fine)