2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Kevin Reilly]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET fwiw has TCG/a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27

————

 I’m getting slightly concerned with this as it’s coming from a currently active AEW that’s now in the E ATL based on what I’m seeing on the 0Z and earlier runs of the UKMET. The 0Z has this AEW move to the N Leewards vicinity at 96 and then form the TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas. It is then recurving NNW around a strengthening Bermuda high and threatening the SE US mid to late next week with no sharp upper trough to allow a sharp enough recurve to protect the coast.


 I looked back and found a WNW moving distinct disturbance from this same E ATL AEW as far back as the 0Z 7/27 UKMET run.

So long it doesn't visit me in Kitty Hawk Outer banks I am fine.  I will be there August 2nd to August 9th.

[GaWx]

Good news regarding microwave scans:

 

[GaWx]

 Though 8/4-10 dropped likely partially related to little support for the current MDR AEW, today’s Euro Weeklies are slightly more ominous than yesterday’s for August’s ACE as a whole:  

% of 2005-24 averages:
8/4-10: 80% (slightly lower than yest.)
8/11-17: 190% (slightly higher than yest.)
8/18-24: 210% (much higher than yest.)
8/25-31: 110% (same as yest.)

Taken as a whole, these probably imply a prog of ~38 ACE for next month fwiw. Please don’t shoot the innocent messenger!

[Boston Bulldog]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Good news regarding microwave scans:

 

Amazing news. SSMIS and similar polar-orbiting scans aren’t perfect, but they are the best Hurricane inner core analysis tool outside of in-situ observations and radar. 

[GaWx]

The UKMET is back to having a TD form on the 0Z. But unlike yesterday’s 0Z, which developed the current central MDR wave that was moving NNW to threaten the SE US, this one forms on an old front just off the SE US coast. After forming, it crawls NNE to just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast remaining as a TD:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 32.0N 75.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2025 96 31.4N 75.7W 1010 29
1200UTC 04.08.2025 108 32.1N 74.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 05.08.2025 120 32.1N 75.0W 1013 25
1200UTC 05.08.2025 132 33.1N 73.9W 1015 23
0000UTC 06.08.2025 144 34.3N 73.9W 1015 23
1200UTC 06.08.2025 156 35.7N 73.6W 1014 30
0000UTC 07.08.2025 168 37.6N 73.0W 1012 28

*Edit: 0Z Euro is a bit similar to 0Z UKMET but with just a very weak sfc low rather than a TD. It similarly goes up the US E coast just offshore and toward Cape Cod and Maine.

[GaWx]

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (12Z) has a TD from off the SE US from a frontal zone with no notable strengthening and with very slow movement. This run has it initially moving NE/NNE before turning to the WSW and then SW a couple hundred miles off NC:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 32.9N 73.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2025 72 32.7N 72.9W 1010 26
0000UTC 04.08.2025 84 33.1N 71.9W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.08.2025 96 33.9N 70.8W 1010 29
0000UTC 05.08.2025 108 34.3N 70.4W 1012 27
1200UTC 05.08.2025 120 35.1N 69.4W 1014 30
0000UTC 06.08.2025 132 35.8N 69.2W 1014 31
1200UTC 06.08.2025 144 36.4N 69.1W 1015 30
0000UTC 07.08.2025 156 36.0N 69.8W 1015 31
1200UTC 07.08.2025 168 35.5N 70.4W 1016 29

[GaWx]

August ACE forecast: Today’s Euro Weeklies vs yesterday’s (using 2005-24 base)

8/4-10: 0.9 vs 0.8
8/11-17: 1.5 vs 1.9
8/18-24: 1.6 vs 2.1
8/25-31: 1.2 vs 1.1

Overall, I’d call this slightly less active than yesterday’s run but still a good bit more active than 2005-24 average ACE for August as a whole.

[Floydbuster]

I think things may turn on the next couple of weeks in the Atlantic. The long range ensembles look nasty, some showing hurricane landfalls in the Gulf or Florida east coast, and the wind shear is looking more and more favorable. This could all culminate during a positive phase of the MJO.

[GaWx]

For the first time this season, the latest UKMET (12Z) has a TC in the MDR (moving WNW):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.3N 40.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2025 120 10.3N 40.8W 1013 25
0000UTC 07.08.2025 132 11.4N 42.4W 1012 25
1200UTC 07.08.2025 144 13.0N 44.1W 1012 26
0000UTC 08.08.2025 156 14.8N 46.7W 1012 28
1200UTC 08.08.2025 168 16.1N 50.7W 1011 27

[BarryStantonGBP]

this possibly could be the E storm based on the ECMWF probability models

[GaWx]

 Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z/12Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas. It could easily look very different as early as tomorrow.

 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS vs the 0Z EPS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now:

 

 *Edit: I’m counting 50% of 12Z EPS members with a TC from this AEW. That’s quite high from this far out for the often rather conservative EPS.
 
 In addition, there are 5 TC members from the followup AEW threatening the NE Caribbean to Bahamas.

[BarryStantonGBP]

SAINT LEZAK HAS SPOKEN

 

Tropical Development Windows Are Approaching
Two Key LRC Predictions Are Already in the Forecast

The next three weeks mark a critical transition in the tropics. As Saharan dust slowly retreats and the thunderstorm activity increases over the open Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean Sea, we are forecasting a much more favorable environment for tropical development.

In fact, two of our key LRC-based tropical windows—predicted months ago—are expected to show up soon. These are not random guesses. These are precise forecast targets based on storm energy identified last fallthat is now cycling back through the pattern.

As you’ll see in the graphic below, the timing and placement of these systems align directly with the Weather 20/20 LRC predictions that have been part of our Tropical Outlook Guide since spring.

We’ll continue to track these windows closely in our daily updates and highlight what’s coming next a week from now in our early August Tropical Update next Saturday.

 

 

Conclusion: A Quiet Start, But a Pattern-Driven Storm Season Awaits

While the hurricane season has begun on a quiet note, we are not fooled by the calm—and you shouldn’t be either. The Saharan dust outbreaks and persistent summer anticyclone have done their job suppressing early activity, but the LRC tells a deeper story.

We’re entering a new phase now—one where multiple tropical windows, renewed storm energy, and shifting jet stream dynamics begin to align. As we’ve shown throughout this report, the pattern is right on schedule. 

 

https://weather2020.substack.com/p/tropics-stay-quiet-impacts-from-saharan

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Based loosely on the 12Z Euro/UKMET/GEFS, the 6Z/0Z GEFS, the 0Z/12Z EPS, yesterday’s Euro Weeklies, and the forecasted MJO, it appears to me that there’s a somewhat enhanced chance of a TS/H threat around the NE Caribbean ~8/9-10, around the Bahamas/FL ~8/12-13, and either the US Gulf coast or the US E coast ~8/14-16. This isn’t an explicit forecast but rather just notable hints of what may be to come for those areas. It could easily look very different as early as tomorrow.

 12Z EPS is somewhat ominous/more active for the Bahamas/CONUS vs the 0Z EPS during Aug 12-16. *Potential* mid August threat from NE Caribbean to CONUS as it appears now:

How many NS are predicting for august chap?

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

How many NS are predicting for august chap?

 Fwiw, I predicted 5 August NS (vs active era avg of 4) in the basin based mainly on the last few days of active Euro Weeklies along with MJO.

[BarryStantonGBP]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Fwiw, I predicted 5 August NS (vs active era avg of 4) in the basin based mainly on the last few days of active Euro Weeklies along with MJO.

I used the Euro models (weeklies/sub-seasonal range forecast) and somehow came up with:

Dexter: 8-10 Aug, NW Gulf, C1

Erin: 12 - 16 Aug, EC FL swell, MDR, brush, C3

Fernand: 19 - 24 Aug, gyre NE Gulf, TS

Gabs: 27 Aug - 2 Sep, Caribbean - NE Gulf, C2

Humberto: wait until September (or the very last day of August, probably CV long track), C4

 

I personally see 4 NS just based on the Euros alone

 

Thoughts?

 

Quote

What to watch

1. 8–10 Aug: quick Gulf spin-up (Dexter) under a brief shear lull.

2. 12–16 Aug: MDR wave with hot SSTs + low shear → Erin RI signature (tight core, explosive 24–36 h).

3. 19–24 Aug: weak vortex parked N Gulf; rain footprints instead of wind headlines (Fernand).

4. 27 Aug–3 Sep: monsoon-gyre or Caribbean seed into central Gulf; steady strengthening. N Gulf impacts likely (Gabrielle).

5. 5–15 Sep: African wave train + favorable MJO → Humberto’s Cape-Verde catwalk.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

6 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I used the Euro models (weeklies/sub-seasonal range forecast) and somehow came up with:

Dexter: 8-10 Aug, NW Gulf, C1

Erin: 12 - 16 Aug, EC FL swell, MDR, brush, C3

Fernand: 19 - 24 Aug, gyre NE Gulf, TS

Gabs: 27 Aug - 2 Sep, Caribbean - NE Gulf, C2

Humberto: wait until September (or the very last day of August, probably CV long track), C4

 

I personally see 4 NS just based on the Euros alone

 

Thoughts?

 

 

TomballEd points out the possible "Erin"

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I used the Euro models (weeklies/sub-seasonal range forecast) and somehow came up with:

Dexter: 8-10 Aug, NW Gulf, C1

Erin: 12 - 16 Aug, EC FL swell, MDR, brush, C3

Fernand: 19 - 24 Aug, gyre NE Gulf, TS

Gabs: 27 Aug - 2 Sep, Caribbean - NE Gulf, C2

Humberto: wait until September (or the very last day of August, probably CV long track), C4

 

I personally see 4 NS just based on the Euros alone

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 I just saw the new Euro Weeklies and am sticking with 5 NS. They are notably active again for mid to late August.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I just saw the new Euro Weeklies and am sticking with 5 NS. They are notably active again for mid to late August.

Thoughts on how I mapped how each NS might go? Anything you’d change? 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Thoughts on how I mapped how each NS might go? Anything you’d change? 

That’s too detailed for me. So, I’ll leave those month long details to you. The only thing I’m saying is to watch for a midmonth TS/H NE Car to US.

[BarryStantonGBP]

42 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That’s too detailed for me. So, I’ll leave those month long details to you. The only thing I’m saying is to watch for a midmonth TS/H NE Car to US.

I translated them into NS 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 16.9N  48.9W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 08.08.2025  156  16.9N  48.9W     1012            25
    0000UTC 09.08.2025  168  18.4N  51.5W     1012            26

[WxWatcher007]

I still think 1-2 TCs before August 20, but I’m increasingly bullish for my peak season forecast (again).