2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Kevin Reilly]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z UKMET fwiw has TCG/a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27

————

 I’m getting slightly concerned with this as it’s coming from a currently active AEW that’s now in the E ATL based on what I’m seeing on the 0Z and earlier runs of the UKMET. The 0Z has this AEW move to the N Leewards vicinity at 96 and then form the TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas. It is then recurving NNW around a strengthening Bermuda high and threatening the SE US mid to late next week with no sharp upper trough to allow a sharp enough recurve to protect the coast.


 I looked back and found a WNW moving distinct disturbance from this same E ATL AEW as far back as the 0Z 7/27 UKMET run.

So long it doesn't visit me in Kitty Hawk Outer banks I am fine.  I will be there August 2nd to August 9th.

[GaWx]

Good news regarding microwave scans:

 

[GaWx]

 Though 8/4-10 dropped likely partially related to little support for the current MDR AEW, today’s Euro Weeklies are slightly more ominous than yesterday’s for August’s ACE as a whole:  

% of 2005-24 averages:
8/4-10: 80% (slightly lower than yest.)
8/11-17: 190% (slightly higher than yest.)
8/18-24: 210% (much higher than yest.)
8/25-31: 110% (same as yest.)

Taken as a whole, these probably imply a prog of ~38 ACE for next month fwiw. Please don’t shoot the innocent messenger!

[Boston Bulldog]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Good news regarding microwave scans:

 

Amazing news. SSMIS and similar polar-orbiting scans aren’t perfect, but they are the best Hurricane inner core analysis tool outside of in-situ observations and radar. 

[GaWx]

The UKMET is back to having a TD form on the 0Z. But unlike yesterday’s 0Z, which developed the current central MDR wave that was moving NNW to threaten the SE US, this one forms on an old front just off the SE US coast. After forming, it crawls NNE to just offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast remaining as a TD:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 32.0N 75.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2025 96 31.4N 75.7W 1010 29
1200UTC 04.08.2025 108 32.1N 74.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 05.08.2025 120 32.1N 75.0W 1013 25
1200UTC 05.08.2025 132 33.1N 73.9W 1015 23
0000UTC 06.08.2025 144 34.3N 73.9W 1015 23
1200UTC 06.08.2025 156 35.7N 73.6W 1014 30
0000UTC 07.08.2025 168 37.6N 73.0W 1012 28

*Edit: 0Z Euro is a bit similar to 0Z UKMET but with just a very weak sfc low rather than a TD. It similarly goes up the US E coast just offshore and toward Cape Cod and Maine.

[GaWx]

For the 2nd run in a row, the UKMET (12Z) has a TD from off the SE US from a frontal zone with no notable strengthening and with very slow movement. This run has it initially moving NE/NNE before turning to the WSW and then SW a couple hundred miles off NC:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 32.9N 73.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2025 72 32.7N 72.9W 1010 26
0000UTC 04.08.2025 84 33.1N 71.9W 1009 26
1200UTC 04.08.2025 96 33.9N 70.8W 1010 29
0000UTC 05.08.2025 108 34.3N 70.4W 1012 27
1200UTC 05.08.2025 120 35.1N 69.4W 1014 30
0000UTC 06.08.2025 132 35.8N 69.2W 1014 31
1200UTC 06.08.2025 144 36.4N 69.1W 1015 30
0000UTC 07.08.2025 156 36.0N 69.8W 1015 31
1200UTC 07.08.2025 168 35.5N 70.4W 1016 29

[GaWx]

August ACE forecast: Today’s Euro Weeklies vs yesterday’s (using 2005-24 base)

8/4-10: 0.9 vs 0.8
8/11-17: 1.5 vs 1.9
8/18-24: 1.6 vs 2.1
8/25-31: 1.2 vs 1.1

Overall, I’d call this slightly less active than yesterday’s run but still a good bit more active than 2005-24 average ACE for August as a whole.