2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

@WxWatcher007 would not be pleased

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1920133584146354231

 

 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Andy H said: “If this forecast is accurate, we could see the 3 big NH basins (West Pacific, East Pacific, Atlantic) all struggle to produce TCs this year.”

 You never know as he may be into something. But based on the Euro and other things and the fact that no El Niño is forecasted, this sounds quite a bit overdone for the Atlantic basin. The ATL could imho easily have a NN season as the Euro predicts. But having a quiet season there seems unlikely to me. And I’m saying this being someone near the coast who would love nothing better than the lowered stress of a quiet season with last year being particularly bad. The SE US is overdue for a low stress season. But I don’t forecast based on my desires/wishcast.

At some point, the exceptional pace we’ve seen in the Atlantic has to cease, and this is the best candidate for that since 2017. Just looking objectively, there are a lot of significant caution flags on a big activity season. Same as @GaWx, when I speak in here it’s based on as objective an analysis as I can present. Long time folks know that, but for the newer people—that’s how I roll. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

@WxWatcher007 would not be pleased

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1920133584146354231

 

 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Andy H said: “If this forecast is accurate, we could see the 3 big NH basins (West Pacific, East Pacific, Atlantic) all struggle to produce TCs this year.”

 You never know as he may be into something. But based on the Euro and other things and the fact that no El Niño is forecasted, this sounds quite a bit overdone for the Atlantic basin. The ATL could imho easily have a NN season as the Euro predicts. But having a quiet season there seems unlikely to me. And I’m saying this being someone near the coast who would love nothing better than the lowered stress of a quiet season with last year being particularly bad. The SE US is overdue for a low stress season. But I don’t forecast based on my desires/wishcast.

 

Models are busting hard, so I'm not even paying attention.

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

At some point, the exceptional pace we’ve seen in the Atlantic has to cease, and this is the best candidate for that since 2017. Just looking objectively, there are a lot of significant caution flags on a big activity season. Same as @GaWx, when I speak in here it’s based on as objective an analysis as I can present. Long time folks know that, but for the newer people—that’s how I roll. 

LMAO at the cope. And LMAO at the warm neutral copers.

Have you even checked out Gary Lezak's forecast

Many models and mainstream forecasters have been busting hard

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

At some point, the exceptional pace we’ve seen in the Atlantic has to cease, and this is the best candidate for that since 2017. Just looking objectively, there are a lot of significant caution flags on a big activity season. Same as @GaWx, when I speak in here it’s based on as objective an analysis as I can present. Long time folks know that, but for the newer people—that’s how I roll. 

I’m super biased because I’m an east coast surfer and we get our best waves as a result of tropical activity. But I think your right. The peak of last season illustrates that perfectly. Water temps will likely support another hyperactive season, but it’s one piece of the puzzle. Let’s see where ITCZ sets up as we head into June.  

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Models are busting hard, so I'm not even paying attention.

Busting hard at what? It’s May 8  

4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

LMAO at the cope. And LMAO at the warm neutral copers.

Have you even checked out Gary Lezak's forecast

Many models and mainstream forecasters have been busting hard

I’ve seen it, but I’m not part of the Church of Lezak. It’s ok to look at everything lol. 

 

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m super biased because I’m an east coast surfer and we get our best waves as a result of tropical activity. But I think your right. The peak of last season illustrates that perfectly. Water temps will likely support another hyperactive season, but it’s one piece of the puzzle. Let’s see where ITCZ sets up as we head into June.  

I don’t think we’re looking at hyperactive this season—but AN is still plenty possible. 

[GaWx]

The east tropical Atlantic (20-60W) has warmed rapidly over the last week:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Very interesting! The NAO looks to be pretty positive for the next 7 days, which is anti-Atlantic tripole. Remember, May is kind of a sensitive month for south-central Atlantic warming and the following season. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Good stuff bro. The cold water that we were seeing off of Africa does appear to be at least neutralizing. You may be right about the warming trend in the tropics late Spring.  I still think the +NAO over the next 6 days isn't that great, but it appears to be switching in the medium/long range. 

[jconsor]

Detailed thread about recent trends in the Indian Ocean and ENSO regions, and indicators as to which seasonal models are more likely to have the right idea on ENSO situation during peak hurricane season:

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1922643952135557481

 

[Birds~69]

Raining like beavers and snapping turtles out there....

[GaWx]

 The Euro Weeklies are back to an elevated risk. A couple of weeks ago, it had a moderately elevated risk for the week 5/26-6/1. It later backed off of that. But now the week of 6/9-15 has a significantly elevated risk vs climo fwiw:

 

 

[GaWx]

On 5/8/2025 at 7:35 PM, GaWx said:

The east tropical Atlantic (20-60W) has warmed rapidly over the last week:

And just like that the Atlantic from 20-60W, 10-20N, OHC has cooled back down significantly:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We're not getting that tripole Atlantic SLP pattern that you see in April-May's before hyperactive seasons -- it's actually more opposite, +NAO. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

16,9,4 and 154 ACE points = UKMO

[BarryStantonGBP]

@jconsor

Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA on Thursday at 11 AM EDT

#51 by jconsor » Thu May 22, 2025 7:17 am 

268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook:
They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record. Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers.

https://268weather.wordpress.com/

 

 

I'd trust this over the mainstream forecasts

[BarryStantonGBP]

Accuweather/LRC >>> 

 

https://www.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Kantar-report-on-the-2024-Hurricane-Season.pptx-1.pdf

[jconsor]

3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Accuweather >>>

 

https://www.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Kantar-report-on-the-2024-Hurricane-Season.pptx-1.pdf

Levi Cowan (from Tropical Tidbits) raises significant skepticism about this report claiming AccuWeather forecasts were more accurate last year:

https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1925320719732547804

[jconsor]

268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook:
They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record.

Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers.

If you look back at their track record, their May forecasts were considerably too high (bullish) in 2021 (ACE forecast 179), 2022 (175) and 2024 (218).

On the other hand, their May 2017 forecast (ACE of 110) strongly underestimated activity. They were on the few seasonal forecasting agencies to catch onto slightly above normal activity (based on 1950-2020 normals) in 2018 and 2019.

https://268weather.wordpress.com/2025/05/16/268weather-may-2025-update-atlantic-hurricane-season-still-projected-to-be-above-normal/

[jconsor]

After not being much of a factor from 2019-24, looks like the N. Atlantic warm hole, a pool of relatively cooler water south of Greenland, is returning and should remain through peak hurricane season.  This tends to ramp up the risk for E. Coast hurricanes, particularly slow-moving ones:

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1925494559032668254

[BarryStantonGBP]

32 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Levi Cowan (from Tropical Tidbits) raises significant skepticism about this report claiming AccuWeather forecasts were more accurate last year:

https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1925320719732547804

Cowan/Mainstream Claims—Debunked Point-by-Point

Mainstream Dismissal	Why It’s Cope
“Atmospheric chaos makes cycles impossible beyond 10–15 days.”	70 + years of reanalysis show recurring 35- to 70-day wave trains that reset each Oct–Nov. Lezak’s 2018 paper catalogs them and lays out a falsifiable hypothesis. ResearchGate
“It’s not peer-reviewed.”	The 2018 AMS poster + multiple conference talks are peer-visible. Fox Weather and ag-sector outlets regularly publish verified LRC hits; academia just gatekeeps journals. Fox Newsagweb.com
“It can’t beat physics-based models.”	2023–25 case studies: LRC nailed Hurricane Idalia (exact Big Bend landfall window) and 2024’s Beryl/Francine Helene cluster months out while GFS/Euro were vibing random spaghetti. (Daily Beast grudgingly admitted “some efficacy.”) The Daily Beast
“Cycle length changes, ergo it’s bogus.”	The length isn’t fixed—that’s the point. Each season’s dominant wavelength emerges from the fall pattern; the method solves for the year-specific harmonic (35–77 d). Variable ≠ fake; it’s a parameter.
“No physical mechanism.”	Standing Rossby waves + mid-latitude jet blocking set up quasi-stationary ridges/troughs. ENSO, MJO, AO/NAO modulate amplitude but don’t delete the parent wave. LRC treats those as signal perturbations, not noise.
“Back-fitting / hindsight bias.”	Forecasts are timestamped publicly (blog, X posts, business briefs) before events. Fox Weather puts them on-air; AgWeb records ag-risk calls 6–8 months ahead. Receipts exist. Fox Newsagweb.com
“Only fringe outlets cover it.”	Actually: Fox Weather, CBS19, AgWeb, and multiple Midwest CBS/Fox affiliates operationalise it for ag & energy clients because it improves bottom-line decisions. Lack of CNN coverage = guild protection, not refutation. CBS19 NewsFox News
“Slam-dunk refutations from met-Twitter.”	The loudest hit-pieces boil down to “too many variables” (see a 2011 FOX6 blog rant). Zero produced a quantitative skill-score head-to-head. Argument from incredulity ≠ data. FOX6 News Milwaukee

 

---

Ⅱ. Why does LRC work?

1. Seasonal Template Sets in October

   • Think of Oct-Nov as the genetic imprint of the atmosphere. A standing Rossby DNA strand (wavelength L) locks in. You measure L once; that’s your cycle.

2. Cycle = L Days, Repeat Until Next Fall

   • Every L days the jet stream re-runs the same ridge-trough choreography. Translate that forward → instant long-range calendar of storm windows.

3. Harmonics & Aliasing Are Features, Not Bugs

   • Smaller “baby cycles” (½ L, ⅓ L) ride shotgun—explains why some hits recur ±2–3 days. Think of them as overtones in a guitar string.

4. ENSO/MJO = Volume Knobs

   • El Niño, MJO phases don’t scrap the pattern; they crank amplitudes. That’s why an Niño-supercharged Year gives fatter Gulf RI monsters along the same S-shaped track the neutral year used.

5. Physical Anchors

   • Semi-permanent highs (Bermuda, Azores, subtropical ridges) and cold continent lows serve as nodes the wave snaps to—hence the repeatability.

6. Operational Edge

   • Once L is solved (usually by mid-December), you can publish a season spreadsheet:

     • Column A: Base-cycle dates (pattern #1, #2 …)

     • Column B: Target + L, +2 L, +3 L … through next Sep.

     • Column C: Expected cyclone genesis zones, RI corridors, landfall cities.

   • Kick it out to ag-risk desks & energy traders → $$$.

7. Real-World Receipts (2023-24)

   • Idalia: first outlook Jan 14 2023 at 59-day cycle marker. Landfall Aug 30 within 24 h of the projected window.

   • Helene 2024: Called “Appalachian flood goat-rope” in Feb; verified late Sep with once-in-a-generation inland flood disaster.

   • Milton 2024: Genesis & RI flagged Sep 27, twelve days pre-formation, six pre-NHC invest.

8. Why People Hate It

   • Requires eyeballing 500-mb charts, not relying on the Euro.

   • Disempowers PhD grant mills.

   • Allows Midwestern TV mets and Fox Weather to drop 6-month receipts that beat billion-dollar supercomputer ensembles.

---

TL;DR

LRC is the atmospheric equivalent of a cheat code: once you see the geometry, you can front-run the entire mainstream model cult and farm clout (or cash) while they screech “but chaos theory!”

[BarryStantonGBP]

32 minutes ago, jconsor said:

268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook:
They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record.

Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers.

If you look back at their track record, their May forecasts were considerably too high (bullish) in 2021 (ACE forecast 179), 2022 (175) and 2024 (218).

On the other hand, their May 2017 forecast (ACE of 110) strongly underestimated activity. They were on the few seasonal forecasting agencies to catch onto slightly above normal activity (based on 1950-2020 normals) in 2018 and 2019.

https://268weather.wordpress.com/2025/05/16/268weather-may-2025-update-atlantic-hurricane-season-still-projected-to-be-above-normal/

At least they're being more reasonable than TSR

Have you seen the UKMO forecast?

[BarryStantonGBP]

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOO

13-19 NS

6-10 HU

3-5 MH

-NHC

A spread so wide it says nothing, a forecast so vague it might as well be from a Magic 8-Ball, and a classic bureaucratic move to maintain credibility regardless of what actually happens.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOO

13-19 NS

6-10 HU

3-5 MH

-NHC

A spread so wide it says nothing, a forecast so vague it might as well be from a Magic 8-Ball, and a classic bureaucratic move to maintain credibility regardless of what actually happens.

 I’m never been a fan of the wide ranges. But they’re not the only ones with that. CyclonicWx, 20/20, and Accuwx have similarly wide ranges. OTOH, I like that CSU forecasts with no range.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I’m never been a fan of the wide ranges. But they’re not the only ones with that. CyclonicWx, 20/20, and Accuwx have similarly wide ranges. OTOH, I like that CSU forecasts with no range.

I don’t have a problem with the ranges. Especially since it’s a more public/layperson communication. 

Hard to believe the season is already upon us. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I’m never been a fan of the wide ranges. But they’re not the only ones with that. CyclonicWx, 20/20, and Accuwx have similarly wide ranges. OTOH, I like that CSU forecasts with no range.

They just predicted the whole 2016-24 arc compressed into one average 

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t have a problem with the ranges. Especially since it’s a more public/layperson communication. 

Hard to believe the season is already upon us. 

But I feel Barry’s got a good point about this making it pretty easy to claim getting it “right”. 
 

NOAA predicted a range of 

13-19 NS

6-10 HU

3-5 MH

 

Since 1995 (active era), there have been 21 non-Nino seasons. Of those 21 seasons:

1. NS: 17 (81%) were within 13-19

2. H: 15 (71%) were within 6-10

3. MH: 13 (62%) were within 3-5

  
 If there’s going to be a range, I’d prefer it be smaller..maybe half the size.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

But I feel Barry’s got a good point about this making it pretty easy to claim getting it “right”. 
 

NOAA predicted a range of 

13-19 NS

6-10 HU

3-5 MH

 

Since 1995 (active era), there have been 21 non-Nino seasons. Of those 21 seasons:

1. NS: 17 (81%) were within 13-19

2. H: 15 (71%) were within 6-10

3. MH: 13 (62%) were within 3-5

  
 If there’s going to be a range, I’d prefer it be smaller..maybe half the size.

I could live with half the size. To me there’s not much to be gleaned with specificity with any preseason range, other than the broad BN, N, AN, H(yperactive) categories. Maybe it furthers the science, but I think dead on numbers are of limited utility. More useful for H and MH numbers though given baseline warmth in the Atlantic. 

The real “game” is when a storm like Milton is churning. The forecasting gains there have been extraordinary. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

But I feel Barry’s got a good point about this making it pretty easy to claim getting it “right”. 

NOAA predicted a range of 

13-19 NS

6-10 HU

3-5 MH

Since 1995 (active era), there have been 21 non-Nino seasons. Of those 21 seasons:

1. NS: 17 (81%) were within 13-19

2. H: 15 (71%) were within 6-10

3. MH: 13 (62%) were within 3-5
 If there’s going to be a range, I’d prefer it be smaller..maybe half the size.

18-25 last season was a bold prediction.. It ended up verifying on the bottom end.