2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

@WxWatcher007 would not be pleased

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1920133584146354231

 

 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Andy H said: “If this forecast is accurate, we could see the 3 big NH basins (West Pacific, East Pacific, Atlantic) all struggle to produce TCs this year.”

 You never know as he may be into something. But based on the Euro and other things and the fact that no El Niño is forecasted, this sounds quite a bit overdone for the Atlantic basin. The ATL could imho easily have a NN season as the Euro predicts. But having a quiet season there seems unlikely to me. And I’m saying this being someone near the coast who would love nothing better than the lowered stress of a quiet season with last year being particularly bad. The SE US is overdue for a low stress season. But I don’t forecast based on my desires/wishcast.

At some point, the exceptional pace we’ve seen in the Atlantic has to cease, and this is the best candidate for that since 2017. Just looking objectively, there are a lot of significant caution flags on a big activity season. Same as @GaWx, when I speak in here it’s based on as objective an analysis as I can present. Long time folks know that, but for the newer people—that’s how I roll. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

@WxWatcher007 would not be pleased

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1920133584146354231

 

 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. Andy H said: “If this forecast is accurate, we could see the 3 big NH basins (West Pacific, East Pacific, Atlantic) all struggle to produce TCs this year.”

 You never know as he may be into something. But based on the Euro and other things and the fact that no El Niño is forecasted, this sounds quite a bit overdone for the Atlantic basin. The ATL could imho easily have a NN season as the Euro predicts. But having a quiet season there seems unlikely to me. And I’m saying this being someone near the coast who would love nothing better than the lowered stress of a quiet season with last year being particularly bad. The SE US is overdue for a low stress season. But I don’t forecast based on my desires/wishcast.

 

Models are busting hard, so I'm not even paying attention.

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

At some point, the exceptional pace we’ve seen in the Atlantic has to cease, and this is the best candidate for that since 2017. Just looking objectively, there are a lot of significant caution flags on a big activity season. Same as @GaWx, when I speak in here it’s based on as objective an analysis as I can present. Long time folks know that, but for the newer people—that’s how I roll. 

LMAO at the cope. And LMAO at the warm neutral copers.

Have you even checked out Gary Lezak's forecast

Many models and mainstream forecasters have been busting hard

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

At some point, the exceptional pace we’ve seen in the Atlantic has to cease, and this is the best candidate for that since 2017. Just looking objectively, there are a lot of significant caution flags on a big activity season. Same as @GaWx, when I speak in here it’s based on as objective an analysis as I can present. Long time folks know that, but for the newer people—that’s how I roll. 

I’m super biased because I’m an east coast surfer and we get our best waves as a result of tropical activity. But I think your right. The peak of last season illustrates that perfectly. Water temps will likely support another hyperactive season, but it’s one piece of the puzzle. Let’s see where ITCZ sets up as we head into June.  

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Models are busting hard, so I'm not even paying attention.

Busting hard at what? It’s May 8  

4 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

LMAO at the cope. And LMAO at the warm neutral copers.

Have you even checked out Gary Lezak's forecast

Many models and mainstream forecasters have been busting hard

I’ve seen it, but I’m not part of the Church of Lezak. It’s ok to look at everything lol. 

 

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m super biased because I’m an east coast surfer and we get our best waves as a result of tropical activity. But I think your right. The peak of last season illustrates that perfectly. Water temps will likely support another hyperactive season, but it’s one piece of the puzzle. Let’s see where ITCZ sets up as we head into June.  

I don’t think we’re looking at hyperactive this season—but AN is still plenty possible. 

[GaWx]

The east tropical Atlantic (20-60W) has warmed rapidly over the last week:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Very interesting! The NAO looks to be pretty positive for the next 7 days, which is anti-Atlantic tripole. Remember, May is kind of a sensitive month for south-central Atlantic warming and the following season.