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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude ... after the 40 or 50 years of our lives [probably] suffering the vicissitudes of New England climate betwixt March 10 and May 10 ... this doesn't suck.  It just is...

     normal

Sure, but "normal... WTF ever that is,  can be boring :lol:

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35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's your forecast. We score

Look I expect it to snow here again this season…probably multiple times. We’ll probably pull a couple of days BN this month too. But this is transition season and I’m treating it like we’re 2 weeks ahead of schedule based on how far ahead of climo most of the CONUS and southern Can are. Albedo is way down and the frost line is way north. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Look I expect it to snow here again this season…probably multiple times. We’ll probably pull a couple of days BN this month too. But this is transition season and I’m treating it like we’re 2 weeks ahead of schedule based on how far ahead of climo most of the CONUS and southern Can are. Albedo is way down and the frost line is way north. 

Agree

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Record warm winter. Tough for the ACATT peeps. Those dam debbies man. 

So so easy to Monday Morning QB I don't remember your forecast but if you called for an all time warm winter excellent call.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

So so easy to Monday Morning QB I don't remember your forecast but if you called for an all time warm winter excellent call.

Yea, no one expected this warmth....Raindance was closest, but even he was too cool. Bluewave seemed to have the right idea, but he only does 2 week increments, which is probably part of the secret to his sucess. lol

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, you said you were starting to agree and quote me saying " mainly rain for most in SNE for all of March is a safe bet"

Didn't mean it that way. I had hopes for the 10th 11th as did some Mets but the evolution is north although certainly if a 524 is below us we probably at minimum snow squall 

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So so easy to Monday Morning QB I don't remember your forecast but if you called for an all time warm winter excellent call.

I don't do long range calls. But I call it as I see it in the 2 week timeframe looking ahead. I even made a post back in earlier Feb about not liking the look in the Bering Sea when models showed the favorable pattern. And that pattern went to shit quick. 

 

Dendrite mentioned it beautifully. Although I think a large event is going to be a tall task, maybe we get a couple of trash can toppers that last until 11am.  I understand that pattern shown could support a larger event....but I will say it again...talk to me inside 5 days. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't do long range calls. But I call it as I see it in the 2 week timeframe looking ahead. I even made a post back in earlier Feb about not liking the look in the Bering Sea when models showed the favorable pattern. And that pattern went to shit quick. 

 

Dendrite mentioned it beautifully. Although I think a large event is going to be a tall task, maybe we get a couple of trash can toppers that last until 11am.  I understand that pattern shown could support a larger event....but I will say it again...talk to me inside 5 days. 

100% correct call and great observation.

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Just now, dendrite said:

BN for that period overall??? Send me some of your brownies. 

Why? You persistent forecasting? I just think the pattern breaks down and we see more PNA ridging and EPO negative than we had. Again can be scored. 

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It's funny when someone posts a day ten torch that ends up 40 degrees it's hey it was 10 days out but if someone posts a BN 10 day that ends up AN then a label.is attached like ACATT.  

We’re going to pull a +15 to +20 day up here today. 

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Let's just agree that the next few months are going to suck more than not. We'll get some beautiful days mixed in which tells us those days on a more consistent basis are approaching but we all know how springs work around here:

1. We could have a two week stretch of widespread 60's/70's within the region mid-month, higher elevations and northern New England will still have some snow threats well through April. We could get a stretch of 70's/80's and they still will.

2. We are going to have some brutal periods of chilly temperatures, stiff northeast breezes, clouds, showers, heavier rain.

3. We'll have some days with wild weather differences within the region. This will be characterized by periods where we get over the top warmth and NNE is dabbing 70's and lower 80's while SNE is shocked in with some marine crap. 

4. We'll have days when portions of SNE are into the 60's and 70's while other parts are backdoored and dealing with 40's and low clouds/drizzle. 

We are about to get a mixture of everything through the next 7-8 weeks. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Let's just agree that the next few months are going to suck more than not. We'll get some beautiful days mixed in which tells us those days on a more consistent basis are approaching but we all know how springs work around here:

1. We could have a two week stretch of widespread 60's/70's within the region mid-month, higher elevations and northern New England will still have some snow threats well through April. We could get a stretch of 70's/80's and they still will.

2. We are going to have some brutal periods of chilly temperatures, stiff northeast breezes, clouds, showers, heavier rain.

3. We'll have some days with wild weather differences within the region. This will be characterized by periods where we get over the top warmth and NNE is dabbing 70's and lower 80's while SNE is shocked in with some marine crap. 

4. We'll have days when portions of SNE are into the 60's and 70's while other parts are backdoored and dealing with 40's and low clouds/drizzle. 

We are about to get a mixture of everything through the next 7-8 weeks. 

Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work.

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