Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[Chargers09]

Worst climo. 

[Powerball]

DFW set a record maximum low of 79*F yesterday.

[Powerball]

Getting walloped right now with a severe t'storm.

Power went out briefly then popped back on for now, and had some large hail for a brief moment.

[Stx_Thunder]

Some decent convective cluster action starting to get going on the mid-coast now ahead of that front that’s to bring some fairly comfortable conditions across the state the next few days (definitely fall-like all things considered just coming out of summer & still September). Nothing powerful though so far on lightning strike analysis.

The drier frontal airmass could get sustenance for several days with the northerly flow on the outer western circulation of hurricane Helene as it goes inland and north into the mid-south.

- - - - -
WBZ height is pretty low for the time of year on BRO and CRP soundings today. Right near 10,000’ now on special 18Z obs on CRP with a bit of a dry slot 700mb - 500mb layer which may enhance the severe wind gust and hail potential a little bit in the strongest cells earlier this evening over STX. SPC surprisingly has marginal risk area even down the lower coast on current D1 outlook through early tomorrow (despite the still quite meager shear values).

[Powerball]

As things stand now, October is on track for the warmest on record for DFW...

Also, crazy as it might be, DFW may have a legit shot at finishing the month with no precip (obviously also being the driest on record).
 

[Powerball]

Tomorrow's record high for DFW is 91*F, which is also the forecast high.

[A-L-E-K]

seems like low hanging fruit record wise but i don't follow your climo enough

[Chargers09]

No measurable rain since 9/5

[cstrunk]

Changes coming later next week, it seems. Just in time for my wedding weekend. 

[Stx_Thunder]

3 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Changes coming later next week, it seems. Just in time for my wedding weekend. 

Both GFS and Euro starting to show a potentially robust cutoff H5 Low out west over Baja/W Mex around Nov 5. If that's the case, then we could have a more prolonged wet period over the state to start November (and possible severe). Ensembles have been outputting some fairly signficant rain amounts in early November for about a week now. Latest ECMWF run going up to 4 in. over the northern half.

Given that LN still hasn't developed even officially into a weak state (like CPC insisted earlier this year, by August/September), the odds are decent for at least some actual rainfall over much of the state. And dynamical ENSO models now aren't showing much of any LN developing this winter. Which would be better overall for TX.

[Stx_Thunder]

Still looks, and getting even more and more convectively interesting now (severe potential also) with each new Euro and GFS run, tomorrow night - Tuesday morning for pretty much all the eastern half. Even San Antonio area, and into deep STX. 'Not surprised at all SPC hasn't even pushed the marginal risk area on D2 outlook update earlier today over STX (typical of them).

Incoming ML trough/H5 Low out west keeps trending further south in the state, speeding up the arrival of 40+ kt DL shear now and better dynamics toward the lower coast also (more in line now with the incoming frontal convective activity Monday night). CIN is already fairly weak on this evening 0Z soundings (noticing that down here today with bigger cumulus formation and storms last Friday morning that I didn't expect), and projected to rapidly erode tomorrow evening (if any by then).

Bulk shear already around 50 knots and 40 at H5 on 0Z Del Rio sounding this evening. Moisture will likely be enough. Only thing possibly sig lacking is good enough ML lapse rates that are projected to lower as Monday night progresses.. Later this week into next week could also get interesting with trends.

[Powerball]

The more I look over everything, today is feeling like a somewhat underhyped setup...

[Sydney Claridge]

I'm definitely keeping an eye on that area of showers currently over the DFW area (and more generally along and west of the I-35 corridor in north Texas), to see if any supercells try to go up within the next few hours.

[Powerball]

Here we go...

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1853481628875809191?t=1dheqYTKF1zbmnQsj1x5rw&s=19

[Sydney Claridge]

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Here we go...

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1853481628875809191?t=1dheqYTKF1zbmnQsj1x5rw&s=19

70/40 tornado probabilities too. The watch does cover a large area (DFW all the way up to the OK/KS border), though.

[Stx_Thunder]

Clearly seeing the robust ML Low spinning even on radar over NM (south of Albuquerque) and still edging south over the past several hours. Also seeing a few lightning strikes starting to show up now in the light precip shield around the center near Albuquerque.

Del Rio 12z UA obs earlier this morning already has around 60 knots effective shear and WBZ height now under 10 kft. Fairly stout and typical, but definitely not un-breakable 850mb inversion. Especially with all the dynamics and front coming in later today or this evening.

Definitely going to be interesting tonight even over the southern half and San Antonio area in the more robust thunder initiation zone.

[Powerball]

https://x.com/NWSFortWorth/status/1853510330326061529?t=37bJVDljta42xds3pfA6Jw&s=19

 

[Powerball]

It's getting pretty randy just SW of DFW now...

[TXHawk88]

Let’s see how this all unfolds

[Powerball]

27 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

Let’s see how this all unfolds

 

Might have spoke too soon.

Things are looking more messy on the latest radar frames, and the active warnings have ended

[Powerball]

Quiet as its kept, might have a flash flood episode setting up for parts of DFW too...

[Powerball]

Tornado Watch has been dropped for the western half of DFW...

[Stx_Thunder]

Getting more robust and sustained cluster development just northwest of San Antonio with a new severe warning there and new development ongoing now further southwest. All activity in the region is still progressing south fairly slow also since cells initiated about 3 hours ago now.

[Stx_Thunder]

No outbreak by any means yesterday, but was not a bust in the state either.

-  And I have to give GEFS and EPS systems actual credit for the preliminary projection & track of yesterday's deep ML Low into NM and panhandle, from Oct 20th - 25th. They were basically trash for when summer started this year, but this is a pretty good make up. Especially coming out of a unusually quiet October.

[Stx_Thunder]

Looks a bit interesting tonight near/just west of DFW area, and possibly Coastal/SETX Monday afternoon with the front from that next incoming deep but compact ML Low out west. Tracking even further south over northern Mex on wv right now. CAPE and ML lapse rates (again) are going to be the negating factors.

And Fall, actually coming in this week with a reinforcing polar surge dropping all the way through the state mid-week. 40s F everywhere (including STX) Thursday morning on both GFS & Euro. Euro showing DPs in the 10s over CTX Wednesday afternoon (fairly impressive for the time of year).

[Powerball]

DFW has at least tied the record high of 82°F today.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

DFW has at least tied the record high of 82°F today.

83°F was the official high at DFW, breaking the previous record of 82°F set in 1905...

[Stx_Thunder]

'Loving this very comfortable polar airmass intrusion and overrunning pattern ongoing around here (1st real one of the season) that looks to stay in place until the middle of next week. Gotta be thankful for that and came in early yesterday on the holiday also (as it should more often this time of year).

Decent, but typical net result coastal troughing looks to deepen next to Deep STX the next few days, so overrunning rainfall and even some thunder potential is there for the entire Coastal region. Euro, has been putting out some decent amounts for the time of year & scenario (and all things considered lately with the basically statewide drought now also). Up to a couple inches total over SETX into next weekend, but may be overdone and because of the time of year.

GFS going somewhat drier, but is showing hints of the coldest wx of the season over the state (so far) going into the 1st full week of December. Which wouldn't be surprising now as I'm also seeing a trend in the GEFS painting a more persistent - AO phase going into mid-December. Which could lead to a more prolonged chill period also. That'd be quite a turnaround before the end of the year, from all the warmth of late.

[Powerball]

For DFW:

With November having officlally ended, it was the 8th warmest on record with an average temp of 61.7°F.

Also, Fall 2024 was the 3rd warmest on record with an average temp of 72.2°F.

 

[Stx_Thunder]

Overrunning cold rain & elevated thunder setup this weekend looks good for much of the state. The best statewide rain setup even out west in the more drought-stricken areas of the Western hill country and San Antonio region (since start of Nov). Likely no drought buster around there with this kind of winter setup, but is definitely a step in the right direction.

Euro and GFS have been showing up near an inch or so in some areas out there through early next week in the past several runs. Higher totals will obviously be further east per usual closer to the coastal surface Low/warm front moving near the coast in response to the incoming ML Low out west.

Seeing that next cutoff incoming ML Low starting to take shape this evening near the AZ/Mex border and appears to be deepening. Which could cause it to dive further south in Mex before it ejects this weekend. Either way, models have been showing plentiful support for lift aloft during the past couple days of runs along with saturated low-mid levels. ML lapse rates are already fairly steep this evening around the state. Already seeing some high-based sporadic lightning activity going on this evening over WTX.

- - -

Saw there was some fairly frequent lightning discharges and elevated thunder clustering scenario in yesterday's SS shortwave energy over C - ETX. Some powerful CG strikes yesterday around midday (>100 kA) on the map in such overrunning pattern. Wednesday 12Z DFW ua obs only had about 500 MUCAPE (if that) with definitely not the steepest of ML lapse rates (only about 6 but did go above 7 late in the day) either to really support that kind of frequent lightning discharge. Though some of those convective tops yesterday did manage near 40 Kft looking at ET radar data.