Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[Stx_Thunder]

Euro & GFS still trending very abnormally for the time of year, higher on PW Thursday and Friday for SETX (now as high as 2.8 in.). WPC now going with a decent sized moderate flooding risk area on day 3 period today, but also stating a High risk is definitely not out of the question.

I can easily see why as both models are also projecting some pretty strong ML shortwave energy going east into ETX/SETX both Thursday & Friday afternoons. There’ll also be parallel boundary (west-east) storm motions, so there’s likely going to be some cell training involved as well. But it’s very likely there’s going to be more MCS activity in the state at least on Thursday, either way.

 

 

[Chinook]

It was kind of neat to see 4 or 5 or 6 supercells with hail lined up yesterday from Mexico to Texas to the Gulf of Mexico

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

9 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Euro & GFS still trending very abnormally for the time of year, higher on PW Thursday and Friday for SETX (now as high as 2.8 in.). WPC now going with a decent sized moderate flooding risk area on day 3 period today, but also stating a High risk is definitely not out of the question.

I can easily see why as both models are also projecting some pretty strong ML shortwave energy going east into ETX/SETX both Thursday & Friday afternoons. There’ll also be parallel boundary (west-east) storm motions, so there’s likely going to be some cell training involved as well. But it’s very likely there’s going to be more MCS activity in the state at least on Thursday, either way.

 

 

PW that high usually happens in August and is usually associated with a tropical wave.  2.8" is fairly rare, even JAS.  

[Stx_Thunder]

On 5/15/2024 at 5:44 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

PW that high usually happens in August and is usually associated with a tropical wave.  2.8" is fairly rare, even JAS.  

It’s very abnormal either way for mid May standards anywhere in the state.

The models might be overdoing the values a little as they’ve trended slightly lower today, but even near 2.5 “ PW pooling south of the frontal boundary (that will be in ETX tomorrow) is definitely still way above normal for this time of year. 

Models & CAMs honing in on convective or more likely MCS action moving southeast into SETX by late afternoon from NTX.

With all the ML energy and surface focus from the frontal/outflow boundaries in the region and mostly parallel storm motion flow to it promoting cell training, along with a decent LL southerly inflow jet from the gulf (pretty strong positive theta advection), could have some actually high rain rates (potentially 5”/hr +), in the strongest storms with PW close to 2.5” further south into Houston and the coast, also.

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said:

It’s very abnormal either way for mid May. The models might be overdoing the values a little as they’ve trended slightly lower today, but even near 2.5 “ PW pooling south of the frontal boundary (that will be in ETX tomorrow) is definitely still way above normal anywhere in the state this time of year. 

Models & CAMs honing in on convective or more likely MCS action moving southeast into SETX by late afternoon from NTX.

With all the ML energy and surface focus from the frontal/outflow boundaries in the region and mostly parallel storm motion flow to it promoting cell training, along with a decent LL southerly inflow jet from the gulf (pretty strong positive theta advection), could have some actually high rain rates (potentially 5”/hr +), in the strongest storms with PW close to 2.5” further south into Houston and the coast, also.

 

 

Models are in fairly good agreement that the counties just N of the Houston metro will see the heavy rain.  Or, where they need it least, they get the most.  HRRR has some areas where the heaviest rain has fallen getting over 7 inches.  W of here in the AUS and SAT areas, enhanced for hail seems likely for storms mid-afternoon.  Tornado risk as well with fairly high SigTor's on 3 km NAM in the I-35 corridor in Central Texas.

[Stx_Thunder]

7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Models are in fairly good agreement that the counties just N of the Houston metro will see the heavy rain.  Or, where they need it least, they get the most.  HRRR has some areas where the heaviest rain has fallen getting over 7 inches.  W of here in the AUS and SAT areas, enhanced for hail seems likely for storms mid-afternoon.  Tornado risk as well with fairly high SigTor's on 3 km NAM in the I-35 corridor in Central Texas.

CAMs don’t tend to do well with MCS propagation/evolution southward into southern half of state this time of year (except ARWs at times).

Latest Euro 0z run tonight has most plausible scenario for the time of year (May being the most active spring month in TX) and has been doing fairly well with convection since start of year, showing pretty large MCS going all the way down to the upper coast. As long as organized activity is going on in NTX down into ETX earlier today (Thursday), with all the convective/outflow processes upstream the front should be pretty close to Houston by evening.

None of the reliable models are showing it but unless shortwave energy tracks much further north or 850mb flow veers more westerly late in the day in SETX, there shouldn’t be any reason why Houston wouldn’t get hit fairly hard (probly Galveston also) as well especially coming in at the right time of day with daytime heating assistance (little/no sfc CIN) also before the event is over around there (or offshore and/or in LA state) by late evening.

- - -

It’s looking dry now for most of state Friday with the front further south except down here (but everywhere for weekend into next week). I should still be able to cash in nicely once more Friday before things really start to dry out. But the growing influence from the typical furnace subtrop High out west next week might not be that strong or long-lasting as even latest GFS runs are showing some possible MCS activity later next week, thankfully.

I’m fairly convinced now this summer, not going to have the kind of hot or rain-free persistence like last summer (except maybe NTX). Especially with any kind of EN not in the cards the rest of this year.

[Stx_Thunder]

WPC finally going with a High risk area now in ETX.  It’s been a good while since I’ve seen any high risk ERO here in TX. Since 2021 if I’m not mistaken.

Currently seeing thunder activity in NTX (west of DFW area) getting its act together going southeast.

Overall and all things considered on models since the past few days, it’s looking pretty busy all-around convective wise for ETX/SETX through today.

 

[Chinook]

There's a new tornado watch centered on Houston

Quote

NWS Storm Prediction Center

240 PM CDT

Thu May 16 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Louisiana Southeast Texas Coastal Waters

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop and spread east-southeastward through early tonight along a composite outflow boundary sagging southward across east Texas. The potential for supercells with large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes will increase with new storm development south of the outflow.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

This went in the wrong thread...

 

  

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

18Z HRRR would give me a day off (off today for doctor's appointment, and I need a day off) if NW Harris County rainfall verified.  HRRR gets excitable with rainfall accumulations, but someone is probably getting 6 inches today/tonight.

 

Major flooding still occuring on the Trinity River at Liberty.  Parts of the Navasota, San Jacinto and Brazos are still in flood as well, and the latest rains haven't arrived.

 

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024
Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu May 16 2024 - 12Z Fri May 17 2024

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PINEY WOODS REGION OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...16Z Update...

The premise of the previous forecast remains the same with a
Dangerous and Life-Threatening flash flood event forecast across
portions of east TX through western LA. The recent trends in hi-res
guidance have allowed for a further consensus on where the heaviest
precip will occur, and the magnitude of the potential with the 12z
HREF probability fields very much outlining the upper end prospects
for not only flash flooding, but significantly impactful flooding
given the anticipated totals, rates, and antecedent soil moisture
for the area(s) of impact.

A couple of the probability fields that stand out include; 12z
HREF EAS probability for at least 3" is now upwards of 50-80%
within the confines of east TX from Trinity county to just across
the LA line. Probabilities above 60% for the EAS are statistically
significant due to how that probability is calculated and reserved
for higher end consensus amongst the hi-res deterministic and
time- lagged suite within the ensemble. Neighborhood probability
for at least 2"/hr rates have grown in areal coverage through the
period with a general 20-40% located from central TX down through
the Piney Woods area north of Houston. A bullseye of 50-60% is
located across east TX during the late-afternoon to early evening
hours across the above area as well, signaling the potential for
prolific rainfall within the expected High Risk zone. The last
statistically significant probability is the zone of >50%
probability for at least 5" based on the 12z HREF neighborhood
probability over east TX. 50-70% probabilities encompass the entire
zone within the forecasted High Risk, a positive correlation for
the potential and current forecast.

Precip totals within the latest HREF blended mean are now between
5-8" within the outlined High Risk as well, so the pattern is
favorable and becoming inherently agreed upon by the short term
guidance. This is a high-end flash flood potential for many across
TX through portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley as the complex
is expected to translate eastward into the Deep South by the end of
the period.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm still pretty sure the rain will be the bigger story.

[Stx_Thunder]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0276&yr=2024

Large, elongated MCS closing in on Houston. Looks fairly impressive over ETX with a good area of -70 C to -80 C cloud tops embedded.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

He has only 24 followers, but there was (still is) a warning in the area.

 

 

[Chinook]

that tornado warning on the squall line is now just 37 miles from Houston

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The couplet is actually heading for my part of Harris County.

 

[Chinook]

this whole tornado warning may in fact be a nasty combo of wind and hail

[cheese007]

Downtown Houston direct hit

[Torch Tiger]

I've been watching webcams, very familiar with SE texas.  Big hit, many webcams down and that's rare.  Looked wild.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Someone else posted CC drop near Hockley, TX a few minutes ago with reports of trees snapped and uprooted and at least one house losing a roof.

 

 

[cheese007]

Possible TDS in Houston

[Chinook]

I do not know if this was a TDS on the north side of Houston, but radar base velocities showed winds of 70-120mph in the rain clouds, close to the surface

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Just had a brief ~20 second long wind gust, long past the storm.   Just drops of water.  Local KHOU has random pieces of debris, like a very large tree branch, downtown where there shouldn't be trees to lose large branches.  Wife's tia has a tree down in her yard.

[cheese007]

 

[Stx_Thunder]

Was watching the front edge of the convective line from the west about to get into Houston on ABC13 tower cam live stream a short while ago.

https://youtu.be/z-VVLWWvAEU

It was already very cloudy ahead of it, and then it literally got DARK in just a matter of minutes when it came in. Saw a few power flashes also. I’m almost sure it was straight line winds seeing how it looked on this tower cam that faces southwest - west.

 

- Crazy how it went to that scene after how it looked at 8:40 am today on Houston uptown Earthcam.

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/texas/houston/?cam=houston

[cheese007]

Windows blown out downtown

[cheese007]

Tornado Warning
TXC071-291-170045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0035.240517T0021Z-240517T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
721 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
  Southeastern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 721 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Anahuac, or 9 miles east of Beach City, moving
  northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Anahuac around 725 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Hankamer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2972 9473 2977 9476 2993 9455 2977 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 245DEG 37KT 2976 9470

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Cady

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

38 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

 

There were Twitter posts showing CC drop at various locations.  Cypress was one of those locations.  Up to 700k CenterPoint customers w/o power.  From X, a lot of people near Cypress posting images of these towers.

[Stx_Thunder]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

I've been watching webcams, very familiar with SE texas.  Big hit, many webcams down and that's rare.  Looked wild.

The ABC13 tower cam in Houston survived the convective wind onslaught from what I was seeing on the YouTube livestream just a short time ago now that the line has moved off.

The live rail cams (with audio) like this one seem to have gone out as it’s still just replaying the stream when the thunder line was moving through the metro: 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Uqq-1HPjJ2o

I thought it was my connection though. But power went out for those railroad cameras in the city from what I’m seeing in the live chat.

[Chinook]

This is measured by downtown-- 62 knots ( Houston Dunn Helistop airport?)

Quote

KMCJ 162355Z AUTO 34023G62KT 310V010 BKN006 BKN014 OVC030 20/19 A2964 RMK A01

 

[canderson]

My family from Pearland to the woodlands is without power 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

29 minutes ago, canderson said:

My family from Pearland to the woodlands is without power 

We're lucky,  The CenterPoint grid is not robust in our neighborhood, but we have power.  Light flickered while the storm was still well W of here, with near calm winds.  I'm guessing the transmission towers out by Cypress going down.  Then again when the line hit.  But they came on before the rain was even over.  Before the second round of severe t-storm winds (not as strong as the first, but impressive) that surprised me because it had almost stopped raining.