Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.

[Burghblizz]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Lol this is the graphic you are trusting. 

 

They always overdo route 119 from Uniontown to near Latrobe. I can say with almost 100% certainty it isn’t snowing 4” in Uniontown. It might 10 miles away and 800’ higher - but it’s just not happening where the population centers are. 

[KPITSnow]

13 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Literally has a snow hole right over the metro. Do you think that has a 100% chance of verifying?

Yes

[KPITSnow]

KPIT keeps backing off the metro totals

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

KPIT keeps backing off the metro totals

It’s gone back and forth, but the 6z HRRR and 3k NAM are showing 0.7” and 0.5” respectively. Is there anyone here who would consider those amounts a win?

[ChalkHillSnowNut]

41 minutes ago, TimB said:

It’s gone back and forth, but the 6z HRRR and 3k NAM are showing 0.7” and 0.5” respectively. Is there anyone here who would consider those amounts a win?

I’m under a winter storm warning for 6-12 but my actual local forecast is like 2-4….and yes-it would be a huge win! It all depends on where the banding sets up-kpit will end up with over an inch for sure, based on what I’m looking at

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

It’s gone back and forth, but the 6z HRRR and 3k NAM are showing 0.7” and 0.5” respectively. Is there anyone here who would consider those amounts a win?

.7 qpf, or .7 inches of snow.

 

.7 inches of snow would not be a win lol

[TimB]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

.7 qpf, or .7 inches of snow.

 

.7 inches of snow would not be a win lol

Snow. I’d be thrilled with .7 qpf, that’s like warning level shit.

[KPITSnow]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

Snow. I’d be thrilled with .7 qpf, that’s like warning level shit.

Yeah, .7 inches would not be a win, and knowing my luck you’ll get .5 inches of it in a 30 minute stretch at 8 am to make my morning commute a disaster 

[Mailman]

The boundary layer flow will veer back to the NW this evening,
with additional lake and terrain enhancement. Forecast snow 
amounts have changed little, with 2 to 5 inches in the advisory 
areas, and 6-12 in the warnings. NBM probabilities remain high
for warning level snow where the warning is in place. There is 
some concern a band of lake enhanced snow could result in 
localized higher accumulations especially across Mercer county.
Maintained the current headlines as is for now, as confidence 
is not high enough for warning level snow there. Steep lapse 
rates continue through much of the night, before a subsidence 
inversion begins to develop later tonight/early Tuesday, 
resulting in a gradual decrease in snow shower coverage and 
intensity.

[Ahoff]

18 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

.7 qpf, or .7 inches of snow.

 

.7 inches of snow would not be a win lol

I’m not sure you or Tim would be satisfied with anything.  We could get 3” and you guys would still bitch that it wasn’t 4.

[Ahoff]

The airport has started reporting snow mixing with the rain.  Though it is still warm, that seems earlier than expected.

[Rd9108]

Can we just wait and see where the bands actually set up before we immediately become negative? Models can only see so much, who knows maybe we get a surprise. The pattern sucks anyway. 

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Can we just wait and see where the bands actually set up before we immediately become negative? Models can only see so much, who knows maybe we get a surprise. The pattern sucks anyway. 

Are we allowed to be negative if the bands do set up in stupid places?

[TimB]

Most of the negativity stems from the fact that we’ve gotten 18” of snow in the past like 21 months. We need something, anything, to get this train back on the tracks.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

12 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

The airport has started reporting snow mixing with the rain.  Though it is still warm, that seems earlier than expected.

Seeing snow now as well. Can't hurt if its a bit sooner than expected. Not expecting much until later this afternoon though.

[Rd9108]

6 minutes ago, TimB said:

Most of the negativity stems from the fact that we’ve gotten 18” of snow in the past like 21 months. We need something, anything, to get this train back on the tracks.

Even if we get snow it's gonna be gone by the end of the week. Until the pattern changes any snow we get is short-lived. Snow atleast will be flying in the air today.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

14 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Can we just wait and see where the bands actually set up before we immediately become negative? Models can only see so much, who knows maybe we get a surprise. The pattern sucks anyway. 

This is what I was getting at when I said the pattern didn't look great but it wasn't a complete shutout look. Should have 2 days of cold and snow in the air, and hopefully score an inch or so.

As for being negative, I guess it's relative to ones expectations. I'll be happy just to see snow falling, hopefully get enough to cover the ground and take the kids around to look at lights with a wintry backdrop. If that's only a half inch so be it.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

15 minutes ago, TimB said:

Are we allowed to be negative if the bands do set up in stupid places?

To me any place other than my backyard is stupid, so if that means yours instead of mine then I'll be by with an industrial blow torch to melt the snow you stole from me. 

 

 

I'm joking by the way.... I think. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Even if we get snow it's gonna be gone by the end of the week. Until the pattern changes any snow we get is short-lived. Snow atleast will be flying in the air today.

By the end of the week? It’ll be gone by Wednesday afternoon, maybe even tomorrow if we get any sun at all.

[TimB]

But is retention a reasonable expectation in a Nino, even in the depths of a rockin’ winter?

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, TimB said:

But is retention a reasonable expectation in a Nino, even in the depths of a rockin’ winter?

Yes of course but we need arctic air which the pattern doesn't support. Guess we shall see as we enter January. All it takes is one storm and all the sudden we consider this a good winter. I'm not gonna lie though if I didn't admit that I like snow in December. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

6 minutes ago, TimB said:

By the end of the week? It’ll be gone by Wednesday afternoon, maybe even tomorrow if we get any sun at all.

If sun angle is a concern on December 19th.... 

5 minutes ago, TimB said:

But is retention a reasonable expectation in a Nino, even in the depths of a rockin’ winter?

I guess to add, I think retention (again relative, do you mean 1 day, 1 week?) is reasonable mid Dec - end of Jan assuming you have a pattern that supports cold and a get a couple inches on the ground, otherwise no not reasonable. This situation, not reasonable, we are basically on an island of winter today and tomorrow in a sea of blah. Take what you can get, and try to have some fun in the misery right?

[Rd9108]

Nws mentions snow will fall but may have a hard time to accumulate with the warm ground fwiw.

[KPITSnow]

1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

I’m not sure you or Tim would be satisfied with anything.  We could get 3” and you guys would still bitch that it wasn’t 4.

It’s all about context. If I get a squall with three inches out of this I’d be thrilled. If I am Forecast a day out for 8 inches and get 3 that sucks

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

It’s all about context. If I get a squall with three inches out of this I’d be thrilled. If I am Forecast a day out for 8 inches and get 3 that sucks

Yeah, my point is I’m not sure anything will suffice at this point.  You find the negative in every situation.

[CoraopolisWx]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Yes of course but we need arctic air which the pattern doesn't support. Guess we shall see as we enter January. All it takes is one storm and all the sudden we consider this a good winter. I'm not gonna lie though if I didn't admit that I like snow in December. 

I probably should go back and research December 2020. 
I don’t remember anything special about the pattern, which delivered such a good month. 

[TimB]

PIT reported moderate snow with half-mile visibility for a minute.

[Mailman]

Was coming down good here for like 15-20 minutes.

[Ahoff]

Pretty big flakes here.

[Ahoff]

Definitely squally right now.