MikeB_01 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 honestly, not a bad position heading into tonight. I dont think anyone is getting 4" out of this, but the HRRR has been trending a little north and west. Also the SREFS have PIT at 2". I think we could see a situation where some in the northwest part of the area are around 1" and some in the southeast are 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I'm a little surprised at how dry so many of the mesoscale models are, basically amounting to a disorganized, strung-out mess of a system that barely qualifies as a s/w. I guess the old adage that "too cold to snow" remains true. Couldn't quite get the timing right. As others have said, though, snow growth will determine our final outcome. It should have the appropriate fluff factor, just looks like dry air and the energy separation is our problem. 7 minutes ago, TimB said: I would think we can be upset with 1-2” if Friday also busts. With yesterday’s snow, PIT is at 5.9” for the season. I personally would say a season total of 10.0” at the end of January is the bare minimum dividing line between being kinda bummed and complete despair. That requires us to get 4.1” before the thaw. Yeah that's the concern. To be honest, my ceiling on this winter was 30" given historical analogs and similarities, but to find a relatively strong snowfall producing pattern and not manage something even moderately sized would be underwhelming, to say the least. January is usually our best month, too. We may be relying on February to get anywhere close to even low-end historical predicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 gfs gives us 2 to 4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, meatwad said: gfs gives us 2 to 4" Damn you, you beat me to it. Weenie rule number 1 always hug the model with the most snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I'll hug this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 12 minutes ago, meatwad said: gfs gives us 2 to 4" It's maddening how Allegheny is always on the fringe, just to far North for those Southern systems, but not far enough north for good LES or fighting the warm tongue. Pivot that qpf another 25-50 miles and we could score a solid 4 inches. It's always a game of inches with storms I know, but always seems that is were the cutoff sets up one way or the other. Kuchera maps are probably better bet given we should be at 15:1 - 20:1 ratios vs those generic 10:1 maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 NWS seems to have bumped us back up into the 2” range. Models are looking pretty good for the late week storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I just hope we break 2 inches so Climate chaser can stop posting those depressing charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Rd9108 said: I just hope we break 2 inches so Climate chaser can stop posting those depressing charts. That’s going to be a tall order, considering PIT is west so more likely to get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Gfs has us snowing by around 3 AM. HRRR is around 1 AM. Gonna be interesting to see how far north the heavier bands can make it. I'm guessing they will just fall short of AGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I think we get like an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I think what we need is for trends to move towards a 2-3” event that impacts the morning rush, an advisory gets issued, and then @KPITSnowmeasures like 1.2” in his backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 From a local met on another board There is a stronger, farther NW precip shield in KY/MO/IL compared to the HRRR short-term forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Also this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 46 minutes ago, TimB said: I think what we need is for trends to move towards a 2-3” event that impacts the morning rush, an advisory gets issued, and then @KPITSnowmeasures like 1.2” in his backyard. I’m just going to have to block All of you since all you do is be ********s to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, KPITSnow said: I’m just going to have to block All of you since all you do is be ********s to me. That was meant all in good fun. It’s MLK day, so I was thinking of the great MLK Day bust of 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I do not like overnight snowfalls. You go to sleep and it snows and you wake up and it is on the ground but just about over. I like to see the snow falling during the day like last week. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Latest HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 If we get 2-3, id be happy with it. Not bad considering the weakness of this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Short term Models trending less and less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 hours ago, Rd9108 said: From a local met on another board There is a stronger, farther NW precip shield in KY/MO/IL compared to the HRRR short-term forecasts Obviously a weenie radar hallucination 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Already a nice coating down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro still likes 3. 1-3 was and always was the call for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 43 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Euro still likes 3. 1-3 was and always was the call for this Except you know fkr the last week when this was supposed to be our window for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Except you know fkr the last week when this was supposed to be our window for a big storm. The pattern materialized. Just unlucky the storm didn't materialize the same way. Still a chance this weekend. Winter isn't over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: The pattern materialized. Just unlucky the storm didn't materialize the same way. Still a chance this weekend. Winter isn't over. I agree. Pretty much all guidance gets us to this look by the end of Jan, decent +pna / -epo for cold delivery then hints blocking reloads through Feb. No reason to shut the blinds. Plus we have at least 2 snow events. Not every good pattern delivers a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: Except you know fkr the last week when this was supposed to be our window for a big storm. Do ever see the positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, Mailman said: Already a nice coating down here. You're in a pretty good spot for this one. Wouldn't be shocked if you got 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Short range looks solid fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Short range looks solid fwiw HRRR is usually pretty good,so we can only hope it sees something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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