mikeeng92 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Banding into RVA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 @Inudaw More amped storm helps our chances for once? Tilts the bands into RVA? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 NAM temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I know its aggravating but you have to click the tiny box twice to see the map. Nam very impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, ldub23 said: I know its aggravating but you have to click the tiny box twice to see the map. Nam very impressive. You're looking better and better each model suite now. You're definitely going to see flakes. At least a few inches. That was a great NAM run for RIC and east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam looks terrific 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The 3K looks even better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: The 3K looks even better. Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Map? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Stormpc said: The 3K looks even better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Kuchera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Awesome disco from Wakefield. Leaves the door open for the positive bust: Given how much models have trended over the past 24 hours and lingering uncertainty with respect to how much snow will accumulate farther inland, have opted to hold off on Winter Weather Advisories for this forecast cycle. The EPS probs for >3" of snow has increased to 50% all the way to Richmond with lower (but nonzero) probs extending across most of the FA. Nearly all model guidance continues to show strong banding and heavy rates of 1- 2"+/hour developing Sun evening inland as the surface low rapidly deepens and the upper level system moves overhead. As such, there likely will be a quick transition from rain to heavy wet snow for most of the area late Sun afternoon into Sun evening as the band slowly pivots E. High snowfall rates can overcome warm and wet surface conditions and lead to rapid accumulation amidst otherwise marginal surface temps. Additionally, if rates are high enough, cooler air aloft will be pulled down to the surface, likely dropping temps to around freezing (as opposed to 33-34F). As such, we have essentially two possible solutions. The first is that rates are lighter and most areas struggle to accumulate more than 1". The other possible solution is that rates overperform and we quickly accumulate at least a few inches of snow with high-end Winter Weather Advisory to low- end Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall. Either of these is possible (or something in the middle). Therefore, will wait for the 00z model guidance to see which of the two scenarios is more likely. In any case, at least Winter Weather Advisories are likely going to be needed for a large portion of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: Awesome disco from Wakefield. Leaves the door open for the positive bust: Given how much models have trended over the past 24 hours and lingering uncertainty with respect to how much snow will accumulate farther inland, have opted to hold off on Winter Weather Advisories for this forecast cycle. The EPS probs for >3" of snow has increased to 50% all the way to Richmond with lower (but nonzero) probs extending across most of the FA. Nearly all model guidance continues to show strong banding and heavy rates of 1- 2"+/hour developing Sun evening inland as the surface low rapidly deepens and the upper level system moves overhead. As such, there likely will be a quick transition from rain to heavy wet snow for most of the area late Sun afternoon into Sun evening as the band slowly pivots E. High snowfall rates can overcome warm and wet surface conditions and lead to rapid accumulation amidst otherwise marginal surface temps. Additionally, if rates are high enough, cooler air aloft will be pulled down to the surface, likely dropping temps to around freezing (as opposed to 33-34F). As such, we have essentially two possible solutions. The first is that rates are lighter and most areas struggle to accumulate more than 1". The other possible solution is that rates overperform and we quickly accumulate at least a few inches of snow with high-end Winter Weather Advisory to low- end Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall. Either of these is possible (or something in the middle). Therefore, will wait for the 00z model guidance to see which of the two scenarios is more likely. In any case, at least Winter Weather Advisories are likely going to be needed for a large portion of the area. Lets hope this is a storm that trends better and better up until go time unlike the last one that got further and further suppressed south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter NWS prediction center still not buying it 1.5 for RVA It’s all about the surface temps & rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter NWS prediction center still not buying it 1.5 for RVA It’s all about the surface temps & rates Except for the fact they said it could be much more lol... just like we can't say that it will be more we can't say that it's not a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 anyone have the 18z gfs snow map thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10:1 kuchera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 GFS surface temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Travel Monday morning could be rough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Wakefield better step it up for RIC every model giving us warning criteria 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I have a feeling things will be a bit better tomorrow AM for all of us from Currituck to RIC 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 30 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Wakefield better step it up for RIC every model giving us warning criteria Once bitten, twice shy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, EverythingisEverything said: Once bitten, twice shy? Lol-NWS offices need NOT be emotional! More important to "prepare for the possibility" (watch) than be worried about busting low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORFDawg2013 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Maybe trending to more of a significant event for Southside HR? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, ORFDawg2013 said: Maybe trending to more of a significant event for Southside HR? Trend still looking better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORFDawg2013 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: Trend still looking better? Oh I was just saying that based off the 18z Suite 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 20 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: +SN at 7pm let's go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 WX Next is very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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