Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[mikeeng92]

Banding into RVA

[mikeeng92]

@Inudaw

 

More amped storm helps our chances for once? Tilts the bands into RVA?

[D-Money]

NAM temps

[ldub23]

I  know  its aggravating  but you  have to click the tiny box twice to see the  map. Nam very  impressive.

 

[Stormpc]

Just now, ldub23 said:

I  know  its aggravating  but you  have to click the tiny box twice to see the  map. Nam very  impressive.

 

You're looking better and better each model suite now. You're definitely going to see flakes. At least a few inches. That was a great NAM run for RIC and east

[wasnow215]

Nam looks terrific

[Stormpc]

The 3K looks even better.

[ldub23]

1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

The 3K looks even better.

Map?

[Stormpc]

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Map?

 

[D-Money]

2 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

The 3K looks even better.

 

[D-Money]

Kuchera

[mikeeng92]

Awesome disco from Wakefield. Leaves the door open for the positive bust: 

Given how much models have trended over the past 24
hours and lingering uncertainty with respect to how much snow
will accumulate farther inland, have opted to hold off on Winter
Weather Advisories for this forecast cycle. The EPS probs for
>3" of snow has increased to 50% all the way to Richmond with
lower (but nonzero) probs extending across most of the FA.
Nearly all model guidance continues to show strong banding and
heavy rates of 1- 2"+/hour developing Sun evening inland as the
surface low rapidly deepens and the upper level system moves
overhead. As such, there likely will be a quick transition from
rain to heavy wet snow for most of the area late Sun afternoon
into Sun evening as the band slowly pivots E. High snowfall
rates can overcome warm and wet surface conditions and lead to
rapid accumulation amidst otherwise marginal surface temps.
Additionally, if rates are high enough, cooler air aloft will be
pulled down to the surface, likely dropping temps to around
freezing (as opposed to 33-34F). As such, we have essentially
two possible solutions. The first is that rates are lighter and
most areas struggle to accumulate more than 1". The other
possible solution is that rates overperform and we quickly
accumulate at least a few inches of snow with high-end Winter
Weather Advisory to low- end Winter Storm Warning criteria
snowfall. Either of these is possible (or something in the
middle). Therefore, will wait for the 00z model guidance to see
which of the two scenarios is more likely. In any case, at least
Winter Weather Advisories are likely going to be needed for a
large portion of the area.

[ldub23]

10 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said:

Awesome disco from Wakefield. Leaves the door open for the positive bust: 

Given how much models have trended over the past 24
hours and lingering uncertainty with respect to how much snow
will accumulate farther inland, have opted to hold off on Winter
Weather Advisories for this forecast cycle. The EPS probs for
>3" of snow has increased to 50% all the way to Richmond with
lower (but nonzero) probs extending across most of the FA.
Nearly all model guidance continues to show strong banding and
heavy rates of 1- 2"+/hour developing Sun evening inland as the
surface low rapidly deepens and the upper level system moves
overhead. As such, there likely will be a quick transition from
rain to heavy wet snow for most of the area late Sun afternoon
into Sun evening as the band slowly pivots E. High snowfall
rates can overcome warm and wet surface conditions and lead to
rapid accumulation amidst otherwise marginal surface temps.
Additionally, if rates are high enough, cooler air aloft will be
pulled down to the surface, likely dropping temps to around
freezing (as opposed to 33-34F). As such, we have essentially
two possible solutions. The first is that rates are lighter and
most areas struggle to accumulate more than 1". The other
possible solution is that rates overperform and we quickly
accumulate at least a few inches of snow with high-end Winter
Weather Advisory to low- end Winter Storm Warning criteria
snowfall. Either of these is possible (or something in the
middle). Therefore, will wait for the 00z model guidance to see
which of the two scenarios is more likely. In any case, at least
Winter Weather Advisories are likely going to be needed for a
large portion of the area.

Lets hope this is a storm that trends  better and  better up until go time  unlike the  last  one that got further and further suppressed south.

[eaglesin2011]

 

https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter

 

NWS prediction center still not buying it 1.5 for RVA

It’s all about the surface temps & rates

 

 

[wasnow215]

12 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

 

https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter

 

NWS prediction center still not buying it 1.5 for RVA

It’s all about the surface temps & rates

 

 

Except for the fact they said it could be much more lol... just like we can't say that it will be more we can't say that it's not a possibility

[jlewis1111]

anyone have the 18z gfs snow map thanks

[D-Money]

GFS

[D-Money]

10:1

kuchera

[D-Money]

GFS surface temps

[Berlin1926]

Travel Monday morning could be rough