Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[migratingwx]

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Thanks, very  nice

2 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Thanks. Maybe the warning will be extended NW tomorrow am

 

15Z SREF

 

9z for comparison

[jlewis1111]

Just now, migratingwx said:

Quite possible it can expand west, but when they say impactful could still be a 1-3" snowfall depending on how you look at it. It does not mean suddenly RIC is getting 8-12" given most of the available data, which of course is constantly changing. 

Well the SREF backs up there statement 

[migratingwx]

Just now, jlewis1111 said:

Well the SREF backs up there statement 

I said most of the available data. 

[wasnow215]

Has anyone ever tracked SREF over the years and graded them I have found them to do really poorly in general. Always seem like too much snow. Don't get me wrong I hope that's what we get but they're just not very good models but neither is HRRR. It's even worse

[wasnow215]

Through hour 17, the 18Z 12K NAM slower bringing the precipitation in. Let's see if it means anything.

[Conway7305]

The SREF and HRRR are couldn’t be more different currently .  18z HRRR has basically no snow in most of VA and everything sliding into NC/OBX minus a few inches for VA Beach.  SERF has moisture surging ahead even  into DC.  A few of the SREF ensemble members has as much as 12 inches for Richmond… Lol.

[D-Money]

18z NAM 3k. LP organizes to far south to pump the banding in to the area. 

[NorthArlington101]

28 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Has anyone ever tracked SREF over the years and graded them I have found them to do really poorly in general. Always seem like too much snow. Don't get me wrong I hope that's what we get but they're just not very good models but neither is HRRR. It's even worse

Not lurking in ya'lls space to troll, but the SREFs are terrible. What's remarkable about it is that it used to be considered a usable tool. Only look for entertainment. Some members have it dumping snow in D.C.. Barring the coup of the century, it's a toss.

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, D-Money said:

18z NAM 3k. LP organizes to far south to pump the banding in to the area. 

Regular nam is much better

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not lurking in ya'lls space to troll, but the SREFs are terrible. What's remarkable about it is that it used to be considered a usable tool. Only look for entertainment. Some members have it dumping snow in D.C.. Barring the coup of the century, it's a toss.

I love reading your stuff in the DC thread! You are always welcomed here.
 

I just find that model and HRRR to be pretty poor even when you get to "during the storm" lol.
 

By the way I'm not even sure if people know who I am in that thread but I've been here I think since 2012-and I do post on there sometimes. I think I was on the other one too whatever it was called when I lived in New Jersey. Eastern? I think that's what it was called something like that.
 

[wasnow215]

Anybody have the 18Z NAM regular clown map for snow?

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Anybody have the 18Z NAM regular clown map for snow?

[jlewis1111]

can we just get 50 mile jog to the north. Give us that north trend

[overcautionisbad]

7 in Petersburg and half an inch in Richmond. Yeahz I'll believe it when I see it

 

Looks like DT talked about it

https://medium.com/%40wxrisk/richmond-metro-and-only-richmond-metro-on-the-edge-huge-bust-potential-2a9d8c0b4b5a?fbclid=IwVERDUAPp96dleHRuA2FlbQIxMABzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR75fPSOhjLqRHYzu9-Ym_KihyMIZVBmH_wiyQhQDAGq6S5n33g819qPBfylMg_aem_UPeC2LWM9J-QNJ2grU5r_w

 

Seems to consider SREF not a likely scenario, but a best case scenario if you want snow. Like the high end I guess

[Bob Chill]

Hi res mesos aren't doing well in the short range imo. It's snowing here right now by smith mtn lake right now and fcx shows a decent shield deep into swva. It's still light snow but heavier than flurries. 3k nam and hrrr show nothing like that

Mesos are jumping all over the place every 6 hours while the globals like the gfs/euro have been pretty steady with their qpf forecasts last 3 runs. If I lived over by RIC I'd stick with what the globals are showing then pay attention tomorrow in real time as to where the banding sets up. 

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I hit laughing emoji because of the incredibly tight gradient between nothing at all and what's that 7 inches in Petersburg?  Is that what city it is right below Richmond on that map or another city down here?

 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

I hit laughing emoji because of the incredibly tight gradient between nothing at all and what's that 7 inches in Petersburg?  Is that what city it is right below Richmond on that map or another city down here?

 

It's pretty wild but not totally unbelievable that a super tight gradient sets up somewhere. It's a cutoff low and upper level flow won't be pushing the qpf field out along the periphery like with the majority of storms. I don't think it will be like the nams lol but it will be pretty tight along the northern edge. 

[overcautionisbad]

2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I hit laughing emoji because of the incredibly tight gradient between nothing at all and what's that 7 inches in Petersburg?  Is that what city it is right below Richmond on that map or another city down here?

 

That is Petersburg below Richmond just south of Chesterfield County

[overcautionisbad]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Hi res mesos aren't doing well in the short range imo. It's snowing here right now by smith mtn lake right now and fcx shows a decent shield deep into swva. It's still light snow but heavier than flurries. 3k nam and hrrr show nothing like that

Mesos are jumping all over the place every 6 hours while the globals like the gfs/euro have been pretty steady with their qpf forecasts last 3 runs. If I lived over by RIC I'd stick with what the globals are showing then pay attention tomorrow in real time as to where the banding sets up. 

At this point I'm prepared for anything tomorrow from nothing to 7 inches.

[RVASnowLover]

Just now, overcautionisbad said:

At this point I'm prepared for anything tomorrow from nothing to 7 inches.

Seriously! At this point RIC could get a couple of inches or just cloudy skies. No idea 

[wasnow215]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's pretty wild but not totally unbelievable that a super tight gradient sets up somewhere. It's a cutoff low and upper level flow won't be pushing the qpf field out along the periphery like with the majority of storms. I don't think it will be like the nams lol but it will be pretty tight along the northern edge. 

No I think it's legitimate that, maybe not to that extent, but these gradients are so tight!

I have different people and in particular a church just near Short Pump, who want me to weigh in on what they should do about church Sunday. I told them pretty much what you said to just stick to the national weather service maps right now. Which Wakefield has 1.7 inches currently forecasted for Richmond, and a little bit more as you go south towards Petersburg.
 

But man just a 20 mile jog north and it's a whole different ball game!

[overcautionisbad]

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

That is Petersburg below Richmond just south of Chesterfield County

I live in Magnolia Green part of Moseley.

Thinking we get 2" here but would love to eek out a little more haha. We got about five on December 9, and I think about three before the ice and all that Saturday to Sunday. Can't tell exactly though, because I stayed in a hotel in Ashland keeping my business opened which we did successfully lol.

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said:

Yeah that's a little glitch in their system lol. If you go to Wakefield and then click on the winter symbol for the winter weather, down towards the bottom, it'll bring you to a more current map which came out at 2:45 PM today. That's where you'll see the 1.7 etc. I don't know why they don't update this map on the main page.
 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

No I think it's legitimate that, maybe not to that extent, but these gradients are so tight!

I have different people and in particular a church just near Short Pump, who want me to weigh in on what they should do about church Sunday. I told them pretty much what you said to just stick to the national weather service maps right now. Which Wakefield has 1.7 inches currently forecasted for Richmond, and a little bit more as you go south towards Petersburg.
 

But man just a 20 mile jog north and it's a whole different ball game!

My yard has been riding the line between 3-6 and 1-2 and I've pretty much been expecting 2-3" tops but being so close to whiter pastures keeps me interested in the idea of a more impactful event. The 12z euro ai/euro/gfs all bumped better qpf northward. Not a ton but all 3 did and it's encouraging. If 18z does the same I'll be more confident in the 3-6 idea. Ratios will be high no matter what. Blacksburg's AFD stated 15-20:1 rations and I believe it. Upper level lows are often fluff bombs and it's plenty cold. I could potentially get close to 6" on .30qpf. RIC could get 4" on .20. Time will tell. Keep expectations low and enjoy the F out of a boom if it happens 

[jlewis1111]

5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

No I think it's legitimate that, maybe not to that extent, but these gradients are so tight!

I have different people and in particular a church just near Short Pump, who want me to weigh in on what they should do about church Sunday. I told them pretty much what you said to just stick to the national weather service maps right now. Which Wakefield has 1.7 inches currently forecasted for Richmond, and a little bit more as you go south towards Petersburg.
 

But man just a 20 mile jog north and it's a whole different ball game!

All we need brother 20 mile north trend. I dont think thats asking for much considering how many times we have been screwed on the north trend to the DC folks    Come on snow GOD"S hook us up PLEASE

[Rhino16]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My yard has been riding the line between 3-6 and 1-2 and I've pretty much been expecting 2-3" tops but being so close to whiter pastures keeps me interested in the idea of a more impactful event. The 12z euro ai/euro/gfs all bumped better qpf northward. Not a ton but all 3 did and it's encouraging. If 18z does the same I'll be more confident in the 3-6 idea. Ratios will be high no matter what. Blacksburg's AFD stated 15-20:1 rations and I believe it. Upper level lows are often fluff bombs and it's plenty cold. I could potentially get close to 6" on .30qpf. RIC could get 4" on .20. Time will tell. Keep expectations low and enjoy the F out of a boom if it happens 

Are you getting any flakes right now? Further west seems to be. It’s weird the 3k NAM dries out so much but the other one doesn’t. I don’t know if that’s a known thing it does.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Are you getting any flakes right now? Further west seems to be. It’s weird the 3k NAM dries out so much but the other one doesn’t. I don’t know if that’s a known thing it does.

It's been snowing lightly for the last 30 mins and had flurries earlier today around 10-11am. Not much virga. When radar shows 10dbz or higher its making it to the ground. 

[jlewis1111]

[ldub23]

RIC will be  under a warning  by tomorrow am