Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Area Discussion

[Deep Creek]

While the GFS has been consistent, I recall a storm we got last Jan or Feb (pretty sure it was Feb but can’t get locate the screen shots) where for like 12 or 14 straight runs it showed the heaviest band over us and then come game time…poof it went well north and we got 1-3” in Richmond metro. Anything is possible and other models being close is good and all, but in these types of setups it’s best to rely on our weather history and err on the side of mixing issues.

[Deep Creek]

Just saw the long range maps posted. Ughhh can we not be in the jackpot more than a week out lol.

[chris624wx]

18 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

222 HR GFS is a  raging  blizzard for  central VA. 37 inches  of  snow/sleet thru 228

[Conway7305]

6 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

damn

[JB Fins]

As many times as we have seen this, RVA in the bullseye only to end up on the southern end or shutout, you think, or one would think, the models could be adjusted or a study should be done. 

[Ephesians2]

With such a strong west based NAO block on the models, I think that suppression or an easterly track is a bigger risk with this opportunity, unless the blocking ends up being weaker than the ensembles currently show.

[Deep Creek]

1 minute ago, JB Fins said:

As many times as we have seen this, RVA in the bullseye only to end up on the southern end or shutout, you think, or one would think, the models could be adjusted or a study should be done. 

lol, definitely a study! Makes you really appreciate the good storms we’ve had. Like 12/8/18. Looked to stay south of us up until about 24-36 hours before go time and then we got a foot easy. One of the nicest, cleanest surprises. Otherwise, here it’s just “here we go again”.

[mikeeng92]

Man 12/18 was so nice.

 

UKMET gives us 2.4” of QPF. Incredible amounts of frozen whatever. 

[wasnow215]

14 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

damn

 

21 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Is this all from the one storm or is it combined with what will fall this weekend?

[benjammin]

^That is its own system fwiw.

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[winterwxfan]

28 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

Ukie  

Something looks off on this.  This must be counting mix as snow.  We flip at hour 75 and never go all snow.  Both Kuchera and 10:1 total snow at hour 75 are like 6 or 7 ish... and still looks like lots of freezing rain follows.

[Conway7305]

I believe that’s the combination of two storms but I might be wrong

[RVASnowLover]

2 minutes ago, winterwxfan said:

Something looks off on this.  This must be counting mix as snow.  We flip at hour 75 and never go all snow.  Both Kuchera and 10:1 total snow at hour 75 are like 6 or 7 ish... and still looks like lots of freezing rain follows.

Yeah the 10:1 includes sleet. The kuchera is lower, around 6"

[chris624wx]

8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

 

Is this all from the one storm or is it combined with what will fall this weekend?

That's just the amount for the next threat.

[Sernest14]

3 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

That's just the amount for the next threat.

that includes the precip for this weekend too- still showing 20 couple for next but gfs is showing 15-17 for this weekend and not accounting for ice and sleet in that mix so overdone.  

[chris624wx]

20 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

that includes the precip for this weekend too- still showing 20 couple for next but gfs is showing 15-17 for this weekend and not accounting for ice and sleet in that mix so overdone.  

No, I showed 24 hour snowfall for the time period of the next threat. Nothing from this current storm is reflected in that. 

[RVASnowLover]

Euro again taking baby steps in the right direction. Held on to the snow a little longer before the flip. The theme for 12z was a little colder. See if that continues.

[wasnow215]

Still showing the freezing rain but different people are saying that freezing rain could be sleet and that the European model doesn't do a good job with the differential. Let's hope so

[JB Fins]

 Wakefield in the Freezing Rain camp.  Yikes

[RVASnowLover]

Euro has next threat well south and east

[ldub23]

53 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

No, I showed 24 hour snowfall for the time period of the next threat. Nothing from this current storm is reflected in that. 

Yea, thats storm 2. EURO still has the storm but  its slightly  further  offshore and  gets  no precip onshore. 

[RVASnowLover]

 

8” seems a little high IMO but doable if we get the right rates or snow longer  before we flip 

[Sernest14]

1 hour ago, chris624wx said:

No, I showed 24 hour snowfall for the time period of the next threat. Nothing from this current storm is reflected in that. 

ah I thought I saw a map that had 39 inches that was posted- my fault

[Deep Creek]

55 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

 

8” seems a little high IMO but doable if we get the right rates or snow longer  before we flip 

Wakefield’s map is probably more realistic, although I still think it’s overdone for metro Richmond

 

[overcautionisbad]

3 minutes ago, Deep Creek said:

Wakefield’s map is probably more realistic, although I still think it’s overdone for metro Richmond

 

I wouldn't be so sure of that. 12Z Euro has 4.7 inches in Richmond right before changeover. It’s trending back up. Other models have higher on 12z. So, we'll see. On to 18z and 0z

[chris624wx]

6 minutes ago, Deep Creek said:

Wakefield’s map is probably more realistic, although I still think it’s overdone for metro Richmond

 

I'll be SHOCKED if we hit 4'' of snow here in Norfolk, but I'll gladly take it before it gets washed away by sleet and rain! 

[RVASnowLover]

3 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

I wouldn't be so sure of that. 12Z Euro has 4.7 inches in Richmond right before changeover. It’s trending back up. Other models have higher on 12z. So, we'll see. On to 18z and 0z

I'm thinking 3-6" for RIC but could change based on 00z tonight. It's going to be weird getting sleet and freezing rain with temps in teens and low 20s. We're usually hovering around freezing when we get those precip types

[overcautionisbad]

24 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

I'm thinking 3-6" for RIC but could change based on 00z tonight. It's going to be weird getting sleet and freezing rain with temps in teens and low 20s. We're usually hovering around freezing when we get those precip types

I just don't buy ice at those temps here

[Rvarookie]

9 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

I just don't buy ice at those temps here

Sometimes you got to go with gut and past storms. Def feels like overperformer with overnight falling. No doubt we sleet like hell and then glaze, but I bet that front end thump smacks us 

[overcautionisbad]

6 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Sometimes you got to go with gut and past storms. Def feels like overperformer with overnight falling. No doubt we sleet like hell and then glaze, but I bet that front end thump smacks us 

Well, that's the thing. My gut says we get smacked with snow overnight, then sleet. Freezing rain I just don't think will happen. I just have never seen rain with temps that low here from what I can remember, but we'll see.

 

I will also point out that Euro shift was rather significant for RVA. I wonder if it will shift again.

 

Here's the NAM