Dick_LeBoof Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 Here are the GEFS plumes for Richmond. This is 10:1 Snowfall. Pretty big spread in solutions for the 06 GEFS Run. 4in seems to be a comfortable place to land with this system. As is tradition, we pray for a good banding setup in addition to this rain/snow line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 4" is optimistic at the airport. Think sleet will really tamper totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 24 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Today?? Yes. Lasted about 5 minutes. I am in the process of digging out now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 another bust for ric.. They can go ahead and cancel the winter storm watches 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 12z HRRR looks solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 3 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: 12z HRRR looks solid This is what model needs to be watched. That and the GRAF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 Just now, RVAman said: This is what model needs to be watched. That and the GRAF. right now it currently shows heaviest bands over Richmond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 GFS is not done running but looks like the snow bands ticks south. Good news. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 A little colder with the heavy snow band shifting a little south on the GFS but a lot more sleet on the southern end of that. It's going to be a battle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 3 hours ago, Conway7305 said: I may be reaching but It did look like the 6z NAM came a hair S this run on R/S Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 6 minutes ago, Stormpc said: A little colder with the heavy snow band shifting a little south on the GFS but a lot more sleet on the southern end of that. It's going to be a battle. True! I'm rolling with the Canadian lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 36 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: True! I'm rolling with the Canadian lol You forced me to look. Looks like the goal posts are narrowing with the edges trimmed on the Southern and Northern sides. Someone's going to get 10 inches of cement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 The line will likely be right through the city from SW to NE. Unfortunate but hopefully we see a quick bump before switching over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 3 minutes ago, RVAman said: The line will likely be right through the city from SW to NE. Unfortunate but hopefully we see a quick bump before switching over. It's my 3-5 vs your 1-3 lol. It'll probably be 3! Haha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 let’s see what the king has to say. However, short range models are probably better at this point like the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 20 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: It's my 3-5 vs your 1-3 lol. It'll probably be 3! Haha!! As much as I hate to say it, I’m leaning more towards .5 - 1 inch. I’m not meteorologist by any means. I just know what happens here and continues to happen… warm air. I hope I’m wrong and I’ll be so excited if I am. I just have a gut twisting feelings about this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2025 Author Share Posted February 10, 2025 10 minutes ago, Conway7305 said: let’s see what the king has to say. However, short range models are probably better at this point like the HRRR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 Euro ticked S on the r/s line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 NBC 12 - 3 to 6 inches WRIC - 4 to 7 inches WTVR - 3 to 6 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 22 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: definitely south of 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RicwxSaint Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 Have to remember the local stations are forecasting for a pretty big area including Ashland and slightly north. They could see numbers within their range up there for sure. We will probably go from 1 - 7 inches over a pretty short distance as the crow flies with this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 5 minutes ago, RicwxSaint said: Have to remember the local stations are forecasting for a pretty big area including Ashland and slightly north. They could see numbers within their range up there for sure. We will probably go from 1 - 7 inches over a pretty short distance as the crow flies with this setup. They take account for that in their snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 The HRRR seems to hold the cold air steady over us for the duration of the heavier bands of snow. The NAM hates that idea and puts essentially ALL sleet / freezing rain on us. It’ll be a mix a both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 From the main thread. Of course, they were not happy about it, but looks like an improvement for Central VA. Hopefully the NAM improves as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 1 minute ago, Ephesians2 said: From the main thread. Of course, they were not happy about it, but looks like an improvement for Central VA. Hopefully the NAM improves as well. What model is this from? I cannot tell for the life of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 2 minutes ago, RVAman said: What model is this from? I cannot tell for the life of me. HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 The HRRR - high resolution rapid refresh. Short range model that I think gets used around here inside 48 hours, just basing that on memory and a quick google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 Shoot, there used to be a whole timeline on what model to use when but I think even recent changes have messed that up over the years as it was always the biggies first and then when it got to 48-72 hours it was the NAM, as that was its sweet spot, then SREF and HRRR inside 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 No doubt NN will see an enhanced version of what happened last night and this AM. More sleet and snow but nothing that sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted February 10, 2025 Share Posted February 10, 2025 NAM is going to be a warmer. A bit warmer I’m afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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