StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Here, have some members. My breakdown.. Roughly 14 of these models drop 6+ inches of snow here in Tulsa, double that due to ratios. If one of these solutions pan out, we are looking at some major snowfall, and 28% of the members showing that is nothing to sneeze at. Am I being a weenie? Yes, but it's backed up by data haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 27 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Thanks for the info! What do the Ensembles show for the Friday storm? Here is for Friday. Latest HRRR. http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/graphicast/image3.png?8af6f02b358198bf541d325736eed16c 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18z HRRR looks solid. Decent uptick around Tulsa compared to 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 SGF zone forecast for Greene county calls for “heavy snow accumulation” Sunday. Don’t recall seeing that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Wind Chill Watch out for most of KS for -15 to -30 wind chills. Sat evening through Tues morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 On 1/6/2024 at 4:22 PM, JoMo said: Tuesday system going farther north on the 18z GFS. Friday system still looks good, but we aren't 24 hours away from it yet, so it'll probably end up in Iowa or something by the time we get to Fri. This looks like it's actually going to come true. Winter Storm Watch for pretty much all of Iowa for this storm that was looking good for us 4 days ago, lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, JoMo said: This looks like it's actually going to come true. Winter Storm Watch for pretty much all of Iowa for this storm that was looking good for us 4 days ago, lol When you're right, you're right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, MUWX said: SGF zone forecast for Greene county calls for “heavy snow accumulation” Sunday. Don’t recall seeing that before. NWS in Tulsa said this. Snow chances will begin to increase again during the daytime Sunday as both ensembles and deterministic models have been fairly persistent showing a couple of shortwave troughs moving across the Southern/Central Plains late this weekend and early next week. The first round of snow arrives late morning/early afternoon on Sunday and lasts through Sunday night or early Monday morning. Models show another round of light-moderate snow, associated with a second shortwave trough, late Monday morning. There is still lots of uncertainty with how these scenarios will evolve, but confidence has increased some for a more impactful snow event for Sunday and Monday, especially for northeast OK and far northwest AR/Ozarks area. Will continue to closely monitor and update the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Springfield AFD on Sun-Mon Quote While these liquid equivalent amounts do not seem like much, snow- to-liquid ratios will likely be pushing 20:1. Thus, a light and fluffy snow will be favored with much more efficient accumulations. P-WSSI output is showing 40-60% probabilities for at least minor travel impacts. One final note regarding the potential system for Sunday/Monday. Given that one of the main drivers for potential snow would be that short wave trough, it is highly likely that the track will shift given its low amplitude. Keep up with the forecast as we start to get a better feel for this system later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I will be curious to see if we get some Blizzard Warnings issued in the 4 state area for this late weekend system. The potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Big fan GFS, big fan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Sure starting to feel like this is going to be south of most of us in Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 17 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Big fan GFS, big fan. Need a slight northwest trend from his friend from Canada. Either way I’m not complaining. GEM totals are crazy when you think about the possibility of 20:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Morning Tulsa AFD for brief thundersnow chances with Friday system: Quote However, recent CAMs have been more aggressive with frontogenetic snow banding and suggest periods of heavier snow are possible. In fact, there have been hints of some weak instability co-located with this feature, and a stray lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out if this does end up being more convective in nature. This in turn may lead to a period of more prolonged snowfall and locally higher amounts generally up to 2 inches or so. Held off on issuing any winter headlines at this time, but especially considering the timing of this system will overlap with the morning commute for many... and the recent upward trend in snowfall... Winter Weather Advisories may be required. And for Sun/Mon Quote Additionally, guidance is converging on the idea of a potentially impactful winter storm for the region Sunday into Monday. Snow amounts will be refined within the coming days, but with snow ratios between 15:1 and 20:1, snow accumulation will be efficient. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 On 1/9/2024 at 11:20 AM, The Ole Bucket said: We're reeling Fri/Sat back in fellas. Won't be a historic one but it looks like it might deliver something. And then the COLD begins. Curious to know (since I don't live anywhere near those parts this topic is focused on), exactly how cold is *COLD!* for you guys in that region of the Midwest/Plains? - Along with wind chill? On 1/9/2024 at 1:22 PM, The Ole Bucket said: Sir this is a family forum. Images like this are not permitted. I like how @ StormChazer completely ignored that and went right on to more model data discussion in here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 What's up with this south trend? Central AR getting hammered on models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: What's up with this south trend? Central AR getting hammered on models now. I expect the strong push of cold air to continue to push this south. I don’t expect much of anything in southern Missouri, and I’d be pretty nervous if I was in northern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 24 minutes ago, MUWX said: I expect the strong push of cold air to continue to push this south. I don’t expect much of anything in southern Missouri, and I’d be pretty nervous if I was in northern Arkansas. Was thinking the same thing. Miss north then miss south. SMDH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 7 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Was thinking the same thing. Miss north then miss south. SMDH. Coming out of this stretch with nothing but a couple dustings is hard to do, but it appears that is what I am about to do. Pattern looks very boring after Sunday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 45 minutes ago, MUWX said: Coming out of this stretch with nothing but a couple dustings is hard to do, but it appears that is what I am about to do. Pattern looks very boring after Sunday too. Yah just a waste. Cold and dry is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Are we allowed to throw out runs we don't like? Because the Euro looks terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Yeah the 12z Euro has a weaker/flatter wave which results in very little snowfall production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 NWS Tulsa getting onboard for more snow on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro makes me very unsettled. Can only hope that this run was too much in one direction and know it will move back in the other. I suppose the fact that every other model being in the other camp does help some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 30 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Euro makes me very unsettled. Can only hope that this run was too much in one direction and know it will move back in the other. I suppose the fact that every other model being in the other camp does help some. The GFS has been the leader for this entire event... i'm in the GFS camp for now until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I think you can disregard how dry the euro was, for now. However, you can’t ignore the overall southern trend it, and other models continue to show. Seems like a central OK to central AR storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 NAM going to come in further south. Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Well, this type of system is all about the atmospheric response to the upper wave moving through and the temp advection at the 850-700 MB layer lifting up and over the cold air at the surface. The stronger the wave, the more lift that will be generated. If it comes out flatter/weaker than the temp advection will be weaker as the winds won't respond as much and the lift will be less, which generates less precip. There's also going to be banding that sets up where the lift stays the longest and that's the area that will get the heaviest amounts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Man I swear if the rug gets pulled out from under us again... I'm hoping this is just the typical "bad run before the storm" model fluke. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Southern shift on the GFS, but still stays with heavy prolonged precip with 8 inches in Tulsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now