El Nino 2023-2024

[raindancewx]

On 12/27/2023 at 8:25 PM, raindancewx said:

Here is a look at total snow for Boston, NYC, Philly in El Nino if we make it to Jan 5, 2024 without an inch. 

Boston, <=1.0", El Nino, Oct-Jan 5

Blend: 30.5"

NYC, <=1.0", El Nino, Oct-Jan 5

Blend: 14.2"

Philly, <=1.0", El Nino, Oct-Jan 5

Blend: 13.3"

Happy January 5th everybody. Snow continued most of the night in ABQ yesterday, so we're at 3.2" now since 10/1. If you use 1.2-5.2" as bounds for Jan 5 in an El Nino, we're on target for 10.8" now, up from 8 when I used 0-2" through Dec. I included near El Ninos 1979-80 and 2003-04 to dull the total a bit too. Almost every year on the list below has major SW US snows in March or April btw.

If we make it to January 10th in an El Nino without an inch of snow in the NE cities (very unlikely now for Boston), the totals really start to deteriorate.

Boston: <=1" by Jan 10, El Nino

--------------------------------
2006-07: 17.1 (Oct-May)
2015-16: 36.1
2018-19: 27.4
-------------
Blend: 26.9

NYC: <=1" by Jan 10, El Nino

---------------------------------
1965-66: 21.4 (Oct-May)
1972-73: 22.9
1991-92: 12.6
1994-95: 11.8
1997-98:  5.5
2006-07: 12.4
2015-16: 32.8
--------------
Blend: 17.1"

PHI: <=1" by Jan 10, El Nino

------------------------------
1958-59:  5.1 (Oct-May)
1965-66: 27.4
1972-73:  0.0
1991-92:  4.7
1994-95:  9.8
1997-98:  0.8
2004-05: 30.4
2006-07: 13.4
2015-16: 27.5
2019-20:  0.3
--------------
Blend: 11.9"

[so_whats_happening]

Sorry wanted to do this after I got back from the garage but had to sleep coming off work. @GaWx

Anyway I don't have a particular average for lag to the pattern most I use is about a week but it probably really depends on amplitude and speed of the wave more than I truly know unfortunately. It is not to discredit those composites as they are useful to help get some pattern recognition, but personally they aren't always correct in placement or intensity. If we take this last round of MJO movement from Phase 6 through to Phase 1 before the new year.

Dec 8-12th weak phase 6, Dec 15-18th weak phase 7, Dec 18th-22nd weak phase 8, Dec 23rd-29th over 1 wave in phase 1. Made a temp plot (surface based) to show the changes.

We don't seem to quite be hitting those marks as shown above, I know it is not perfect and maybe there is a chance the 500mb pattern responded a bit quicker to the type of progression. I tried to slow them down as much as I could so that you could see the date progression I should have labeled it but 3am stuff. I think this is an important part that needs to be recognized with the use of the composites.  It would be better to maybe compare 500mb or 200mb pattern and get a better idea of what could be versus temps specifically especially in the weaker version of the phase. I also would like to explore further into the actual lagged composites section right above it a little more and get a better explanation.

[thunderbolt]

For those who were picking the super not happening, maybe next year 

-0.7	-0.7	-0.6	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3
WL	2017-2018	0.1	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-0.9	-0.7	-0.5	-0.2	0.0
WE	2018-2019	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5
	2019-2020	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.3
ML	2020-2021	-0.4	-0.6	-0.9	-1.2	-1.3	-1.2	-1.1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.4
ML	2021-2022	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-1.1	-1.0	-0.9
WL	2022-2023	-0.8	-0.9	-1.0	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.5	0.8
ME	2023-2024	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.8	1.9
ENSO Type	Season	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ

[thunderbolt]

On 12/30/2023 at 12:40 PM, snowman19 said:

Awesome call!!!

 

Thanks I’ll try my best. Maybe you and I could sit down and have a beer and we can talk about next year 

[GaWx]

10 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

For those who were picking the super not happening, maybe next year 

-0.7	-0.7	-0.6	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3
WL	2017-2018	0.1	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-0.9	-0.7	-0.5	-0.2	0.0
WE	2018-2019	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.5	0.5
	2019-2020	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.3
ML	2020-2021	-0.4	-0.6	-0.9	-1.2	-1.3	-1.2	-1.1	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.4
ML	2021-2022	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-1.1	-1.0	-0.9
WL	2022-2023	-0.8	-0.9	-1.0	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.5	0.8
ME	2023-2024	1.1	1.3	1.6	1.8	1.9
ENSO Type	Season	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ

 Absent a steep fall in 3.4 the rest of the month, there’’d actually be a very good chance for a super as unrounded NDJ ONI (ERSST, which has been running slightly warmer than OISST for several months) would be +2.00+. ND is ~+2.05.

[thunderbolt]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 Absent a steep fall in 3.4 the rest of the month, there’’d actually be a very good chance for a super as unrounded NDJ ONI (ERSST, which has been running slightly warmer than OISST for several months) would be +2.00+. ND is ~+2.05.

 

[thunderbolt]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Absent a steep fall in 3.4 the rest of the month, there’’d actually be a very good chance for a super as unrounded NDJ ONI (ERSST, which has been running slightly warmer than OISST for several months) would be +2.00+. ND is ~+2.05.

 

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Absent a steep fall in 3.4 the rest of the month, there’’d actually be a very good chance for a super as unrounded NDJ ONI (ERSST, which has been running slightly warmer than OISST for several months) would be +2.00+. ND is ~+2.05.

Not with all that cold water coming up I don’t think it’s going to happen. I think it’s over you need three months of 2.0 to clarify as a super not gonna happen

[thunderbolt]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Absent a steep fall in 3.4 the rest of the month, there’’d actually be a very good chance for a super as unrounded NDJ ONI (ERSST, which has been running slightly warmer than OISST for several months) would be +2.00+. ND is ~+2.05.

Did you see November came in at 1.9

ME

2023-2024

1.1

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.9

[thunderbolt]

022-1.0-0.9-1.0-1.1-1.0-0.9-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.82023-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.50.81.11.31.61.81.9

[thunderbolt]

You shouldn’t call people names that’s not nice Ben Noll always uses OISST not CRW. With weeks and weeks of warming (WWBs/DWKWs) yet to go, it's obvious at this point that it's going to exceed +2.0C. @roardog He used the CRW SST map yes, but he uses OFFICIAL readings (OISST). The last OISST on cyclonicwx was in the verge of going above +1.8C. Nice troll 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

Did you see November came in at 1.9

ME

2023-2024

1.1

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.9

-That’s not Nov but rather it’s OND, which was +1.94 (rounds to +1.9).

-Nov, itself, was actually +2.02. Dec was +2.07:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

-That means that Jan ERSST only needs to end up at +1.91 to allow NDJ to average +2.00. And you don’t need three months of +2.00+. Just the average of the 3. Currently, Jan 1-5 is ~+2.15 for ERSST, based on it having averaged 0.08 warmer than OISST over the last 5 months. For 11/1/23-1/5/24, ERSST is ~+2.05. To bring down ERSST to under +2.00 for 11/1/23-1/31/24, ERSST would need to be +1.87 or cooler for 1/6-31, which equates to ~+1.80 or cooler for OISST for 1/6-31.

 So, do folks think that OISST will average <+1.80 for 1/6-31? That’s about what it will take to prevent a super ONI peak. OISST hasn’t had a single day under 1.80 since Nov 16. Opinions? Yesterday it was at +1.94 but that was only after a good drop. I think the odds are pretty low, but we’ll see. That’s why I’m favoring that we get a super peak as of now.

[GaWx]

Today’s OISST dropped to +1.87, lowest since 11/16. But that’s a huge drop of 0.2 in just 2 days. Often there’s a correction soon after a sharp move. Regardless, OISST would likely need to average under +1.80 Jan 7-31 to prevent a super ONI peak. What are the chances for that? I’m still saying pretty low but it obviously is doable.
 

[thunderbolt]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

-That’s not Nov but rather it’s OND, which was +1.94 (rounds to +1.9).

-Nov, itself, was actually +2.02. Dec was +2.07:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

-That means that Jan ERSST only needs to end up at +1.91 to allow NDJ to average +2.00. And you don’t need three months of +2.00+. Just the average of the 3. Currently, Jan 1-5 is ~+2.15 for ERSST, based on it having averaged 0.08 warmer than OISST over the last 5 months. For 11/1/23-1/5/24, ERSST is ~+2.05. To bring down ERSST to under +2.00 for 11/1/23-1/31/24, ERSST would need to be +1.87 or cooler for 1/6-31, which equates to ~+1.80 or cooler for OISST for 1/6-31.

 So, do folks think that OISST will average <+1.80 for 1/6-31? That’s about what it will take to prevent a super ONI peak. OISST hasn’t had a single day under 1.80 since Nov 16. Opinions? Yesterday it was at +1.94 but that was only after a good drop. I think the odds are pretty low, but we’ll see. That’s why I’m favoring that we get a super peak as of now.

That’s fair, but when all said, and done this year’s gonna be known as a strong El Niño, not super no ifs or butts about it

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

That’s fair, but when all said, and done this year’s gonna be known as a strong El Niño, not super no ifs or butts about it

1. But if ONI peak were to end up +2.00+, why wouldn’t it be known as a low end super? I don’t follow you.

2. Now regarding RONI, which many have been saying is more relevant to sensible wx, it looks to most likely peak in only low end strong.

[thunderbolt]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. But if ONI peak were to end up +2.00+, why wouldn’t it be known as a low end super? I don’t follow you.

2. Now regarding RONI, which many have been saying is more relevant to sensible wx, it looks to most likely peak in only low end strong.

There’s no such thing as a low and super

[thunderbolt]

27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. But if ONI peak were to end up +2.00+, why wouldn’t it be known as a low end super? I don’t follow you.

2. Now regarding RONI, which many have been saying is more relevant to sensible wx, it looks to most likely peak in only low end strong.

There’s no such thing as a low end super when all said and done, the government will recognize it as a strong El Niño, it’s only been positive for roughly about a month and a half other than that you need three months of consecutive 2.0 to clarify that as a super not happening, especially as of right now.

[thunderbolt]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. But if ONI peak were to end up +2.00+, why wouldn’t it be known as a low end super? I don’t follow you.

2. Now regarding RONI, which many have been saying is more relevant to sensible wx, it looks to most likely peak in only low end strong.

There’s no such thing as a low end super when all said and done, the government will recognize it as a strong El Niño, it’s only been positive for roughly about a month and a half other than that you need three months of consecutive 2.0 to clarify that as a super not happening, especially as of right now.

[thunderbolt]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

There’s no such thing as a low end super when all said and done, the government will recognize it as a strong El Niño, it’s only been positive for roughly about a month and a half other than that you need three months of consecutive 2.0 to clarify that as a super not happening, especially as of right now.

[thunderbolt]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. But if ONI peak were to end up +2.00+, why wouldn’t it be known as a low end super? I don’t follow you.

2. Now regarding RONI, which many have been saying is more relevant to sensible wx, it looks to most likely peak in only low end strong.

Let me also state, I respect you you’re probably one of the best posters on this format. There’s certain individual so I could care less about. He’s just a shit stir that’s it. Because if you go against his agenda, he calls you  troll. Or he make fun of you.

[raindancewx]

WPO finished at the highest value on the index in several decades for December, just above December 2006. Dec 1982 had an extremely +WPO look as well, that's one of the reasons I liked it as a main analog.

Cold dump on the models is in the right place at the right time based on the lag from an intense +WPO tendency. The high value of the WPO juices up the correlation essentially. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

There’s no such thing as a low end super when all said and done, the government will recognize it as a strong El Niño, it’s only been positive for roughly about a month and a half other than that you need three months of consecutive 2.0 to clarify that as a super not happening, especially as of right now.

If the ONI peaks at 2.0, then the guys calling for a super peak were correct.

Period.

Does it mean another shit winter? No, especially not with abundant blocking. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It'll be interesting if A ... the GFS actually succeeds in propagating the MJO around a robust phase 4-6 signal like that.  

B, the WPO is projected to be in an equally handsome destructive interference with that MJO actually doing that.  That would argue that even if the wave propagation somehow squeezed through the elephant's ass cheeks mashing down over the western Pacific ... the transmission of the WPO --> EPO in time ( which is already HUGELY modeled to do so) toward mid month, all be precludes the MJO even dispersing any forcing into to the R-wave distribution.  

It'll be neat to see which signal wins. 

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

WPO finished at the highest value on the index in several decades for December, just above December 2006. Dec 1982 had an extremely +WPO look as well, that's one of the reasons I liked it as a main analog.

Cold dump on the models is in the right place at the right time based on the lag from an intense +WPO tendency. The high value of the WPO juices up the correlation essentially. 

Happen to have a good site to get WPO/EPO data? 

[so_whats_happening]

Quick update there was a brief outage it looks like around christmas time but since seems ok now.

[raindancewx]

Generally, you just change the signal you want historical info in this link to get monthly data.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data

Here is December. The +WPO is a pretty big warm Plains signal without much of a corresponding cold signal in the US until roughly Feb-Apr when it's a pretty strong cold/storm signal in the SW. When it warms up the Plains it often bleeds into the East as kind of "sneaky" warmth, i.e. Boston seeing it's third warmest December since 1872 this year.

It's generally (not always) very hard for the East Coast to get major cold systems moving up the favored Nor'easter track through the 40-70 benchmark with those heights by Japan. Usually if Japan is snowy with storms paralleling the coast to the east, the US east coast follows. Japan tends to do better for snow in weaker El Ninos, with less snow in the stronger events. Any of that sound familiar?

I mentioned recently that I expected the MJO to get back to 4-5-6 by 1/20 - the models do show that now. The MJO has been interesting this year, the rotation is more like 30 days than 45. Not something that's real common in the MJO data back to the 70s.

[thunderbolt]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the ONI peaks at 2.0, then the guys calling for a super peak were correct.

Period.

Does it mean another shit winter? No, especially not with abundant blocking. 

Not disputing that whatsoever. Look what I said earlier.

[thunderbolt]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

Not disputing that whatsoever. Look what I said earlier.

 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If the ONI peaks at 2.0, then the guys calling for a super peak were correct.

Period.

Does it mean another shit winter? No, especially not with abundant blocking. 

In the reference about the winter, it is what it is I could care less

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Not disputing that whatsoever. Look what I said earlier.

I see what you said. Its a deflection away from acknowledgment of the fact that the 2.0+ ONI crowd may be correct. Pointing out that there is not a "super" category is a strawman contention...its irrelevant. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really do not see an absence of east coast storm tracks. I'm not sure what Raindance is talking about there. While there have been inside runners, here have also been coastal storms, but that just hasn't been cold air.

[thunderbolt]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see what you said. Its a deflection away from acknowledgment of the fact that the 2.0+ ONI crowd may be correct. Pointing out that there is not a "super" category is a strawman contention...its irrelevant. 

True, but it’s not gonna come to fruition 2.0. Close, but no cigar. I can see December maybe January coming in at 2. But not February. and as you know you need three months straight of 2.0 also, I admire your work to also and your outlook so far is been spot on. Keep up the great work.