Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


 Share

Recommended Posts

We talked it over in discord and plan to keep track of big storms/LES events on here and the smaller day to day stuff will be discussed on there. We have 35 posters who joined and is pretty active daily. If anyone would like to join the discord please PM me through here so I can send out an invite. The invite is good for 7 days. 

Oct Temps

BUF: +0.7
ROC: -1.6
WAT: +0.7
SYR: +1.2
BING: +0.1

The first 2 weeks of November look to start out warm

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

 

This winter looks to be a 3rd year Nina with not many analogs matching. 

The NOAA winter forecast looks promising for our area

Map showing the U.S. Winter Outlook 2022-2023 map for temperature shows the greatest chances for warmer-than-average conditions in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains. Below normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle.Map showing the 2022-2023 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast in portions of California, the Southwest, the southern Rockies, southern Plains, Gulf Coast and much of the Southeast.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-winter-outlook-warmer-drier-south-with-ongoing-la-nina#:~:text=Starting in December 2022 through,northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

@BuffaloWeather first LES event of the year this weekend?

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wetter and eventually cooler times on the way as we close out the
work week and head into next weekend.

Still appears at least the first half of Friday will be dry, and
possibly the entire day just depending on location of and speed at
which the deeper tropical moisture associated with TS Nicole moves
northward up the Atlantic Seaboard. The other player will be an area
of low pressure that moves NE`ward through the upper Great Lakes and
how its trailing cold front interacts with Nicole`s moisture. Timing
of these features will be key as there will likely be a swath of
heavy rain moving N`ward with this system. At this point, appears
the best chance for any significant rain will be from
central/eastern NY and points east Friday night into Saturday before
strong cold front sweeps it off the New England coast.

Now for the `cooler` portion of the forecast period. Much cooler air
will start to work in across the area through the day on Saturday in
the wake of the cold fropa and as a broad mid and upper level trough
takes shape over the central and eastern CONUS. Cold air will
continue to deepen through the second half of the weekend which will
lead to the development of lake effect rain showers as early as
Saturday afternoon, with the airmass growing cold enough to support
frozen precipitation all the way to the surface by Saturday night.
Big picture...lake effect rain and snow showers look like a pretty
good bet downwind of the lakes for Saturday night into Sunday,
although way to far out to pinpoint location. Several mid level
disturbances will also move through the trough aloft, so winds will
likely shift around a bit from time to time as well. Looking further
out, appears that overall this cooler pattern may have some staying
power, hence more seasonable weather may be here to stay for at
least a little while.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Notably Colder for the Weekend with Lake Effect Snow Possible...

Still appears at least the first half of Friday will be dry, and
possibly the entire day just depending on location of and speed at
which the deeper tropical moisture associated with TS Nicole moves
northward up the Atlantic Seaboard. The other player will be an area
of low pressure that moves NE`ward through the upper Great Lakes and
how its trailing cold front interacts with Nicole`s moisture. Timing
of these features will be key as there will likely be a swath of
heavy rain moving N`ward with this system. At this point, appears
the best chance for any significant rain will be from central/astern
NY and points east Friday night into Saturday before strong cold
front sweeps it off the New England coast.

Now for the colder portion of the forecast period.

Cooler air will START to work in across the area through the day on
Saturday in the wake of the cold fropa and as a broad mid and upper
level trough takes shape over the central and eastern CONUS. While
there is strong model consensus that cold air will promote lake
induced instability over the >12c lakes...there is a large disparity
between some of the packages as to the availability of synoptic
moisture. As of midday today (Mon)...the majority of the
deterministic models suggest that a `dry` environment will be in
place across our forecast area in the wake of the cold front for
Saturday and much of Saturday night. This scenario would only allow
for a minimal lake response. On the other hand...the entrainment of
the tropical system into the frontal passage would slow the passage
and would translate into more moisture for the instability to work
with. For example...the CanNH shows very robust plumes off each lake
on a 250-260 flow. This particular package suggests an explosive
lake response as early as Saturday afternoon and evening...which
seems too fast given the low level ridging that typically moves
through in a 3-6 hr post fropa window.

If the latter solution where to verify...we would potentially be
looking at significant lake snows east of both lakes Saturday night
into Sunday night...although a MORE LIKELY scenario would be for a
minimal lake response due to a lack of moisture abv H85. In this
case though...a more favorable environment is being depicted for
lake effect pcpn Sunday night and Monday.

To sum it up...while there is high confidence for below normal
temperatures this weekend...including downright cold weather Sunday
and Monday...there are still too many questions to be confident for
notable lake effect.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s coming!

 

It is important to note, that while it is still early, some of the
more reliable guidance for lake effect is indicating the possibility
of a significant lake effect snow event for areas northeast of both
lakes later in the week. This would include for the Buffalo Metro
area and for the Watertown area. As usual, as time gets closer,
model guidance should come to better agreement on the potential for
this event.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...