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The 2022 Summer Solstice-ish Scorcher(s)


Hoosier
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Putting to the test the question of how hot you can get without an established regional drought.

Will we see widespread 100+ readings during this period?  Time will tell, but I think we'll see more of those than what we saw earlier in the week, hence tipping toward thread worthy.  If not, oh well.   

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41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Putting to the test the question of how hot you can get without an established regional drought.

Will we see widespread 100+ readings during this period?  Time will tell, but I think we'll see more of those than what we saw earlier in the week, hence tipping toward thread worthy.  If not, oh well.   

The current heat wave could/should have been thread worthy.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

First call of 100 MDW and 98 ORD for Tuesday.

No way MDW peaks at only 100 with what's progged + recent history, unless the sensor is rigged before then, haha.

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Record high for 6/21 for Chicago is 101, set in 1988.  

Speaking of that year, was looking back on stuff and the daily high temp records from that 1988 summer have largely held up well in the three decades plus since then.  Only one has been broken outright (101 on 8/2/1991 broke the high of 100 on 8/2/1988) and 1 other has been tied.

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Euro really mixes out the dews in the OV and has some crazy high temps as a result.  Very likely overdone, but even chopping 10 degrees off those temps would result in highs near 100.

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Tuesday morning seems ripe for some torch lows with north/west extent in the sub.  Stronger pressure gradient with very warm temps off the deck, so even non-urban areas may put up some pretty impressive readings.  

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Actually have fairly significant disagreement between the GFS and the Euro/GEM in some of the details.  The latter 2 models have been in good agreement with advertising 925 mb temps of 30-31C, while the GFS is substantially cooler.  If the warmer models verify, then there should be numerous readings around 100 in that zone, with any urban areas that fall within probably going a few degrees over 100.  Conversely, the GFS would be a cooler outcome and pretty pedestrian.

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Monday looks like one of those days when the high could occur slightly later than usual around here due to modest ongoing WAA, until the lowering sun wins out.  Would not be surprised if the high holds off until 5 pm or so.  Or that it doesn't start dropping from the high temp until around 6 pm.

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Here are my numbers for ORD and MDW.  May update at some point.

What will be a somewhat coolish start on Monday will give way to a hot day with a ton of sun, though dews look to remain comfortable.  I'll go 95 at ORD and 98 at MDW for Monday.

Tuesday is the big day.  A warm start (warmer than modeled) will create a nice launching pad for temps with plenty of sun once again.  For me, this day is almost a no-brainer that MDW will exceed 100.  The big question is what happens at ORD?  I went back and forth on this one.  Based on apparent tendencies lately, it lowers confidence in just how hot it will get there.  That being said, I'm predicting the first *official* 100 degree day in Chicago since July 2012.  My calls: 100 at ORD and 103 at MDW.  Would note that I would not be shocked to see MDW even go just over this lofty number, but each degree above 100 is a rarer and rarer thing so I didn't want to get too carried away.

 

Tldr version:

Mon:  95 ORD, 98 MDW

Tue:  100 ORD, 103 MDW

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Under on all of them.

I was gonna wait to get a peek at the 18z HRRR to see where it was going for Monday, but decided not to.  I think Monday will perform well with all the sun and dry airmass.

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Color me shocked 

The heat monger has been surprisingly pessimistic on heat.

But I do think it is a red flag that the Euro is the hottest once again across the region as a whole. It had a rough go of it with a terrible performance last summer in that regard, and has not been stellar this summer so far either.
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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


The heat monger has been surprisingly pessimistic on heat.

But I do think it is a red flag that the Euro is the hottest once again across the region as a whole. It had a rough go of it with a terrible performance last summer in that regard, and has not been stellar this summer so far either.

I could see it being too hot for other areas outside of Chicago.  Chicago plays by different rules though with the urbanized environment.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

And to add on, Re: Euro.

The Euro has mixing a full 100mb higher than the GFS/NAM/GEM.

It’s tried to do the same this past week, but corrected itself as we approached each day of the heat wave.

Speaking of the Canadian, talk about a regional inferno on Tue on the RGEM lol

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A little background info on 100+ degree days for Chicago in case it becomes relevant...

There have been 65 such days since records began.  In earlier years, the official observation site for the city was located downtown, which suggests that there would've been more 100+ degree days in earlier decades had the official site been located farther inland (less prone to lake breeze). 

Conversely, with the move of the official observation site to Midway Airport and then to O'Hare as of 1980, it's possible that some 100+ degree days at those locations may not have been as hot downtown.  Just some things to keep in mind.

Anyway, as said, there have officially been 65 days of 100+ for Chicago.  Of those 65, only 6 of them have occurred on or before June 21, so all in all we are looking to accomplish something that is quite rare this Tuesday.  By the way, all of the years that produced a 100 degree temp on/before 6/21 went on to produce at least 1 more, but would caution about small sample size.

Monthly breakdown of 100+ degree days for Chicago:

Jun:  14

Jul:  36

Aug:  11

Sep:  4

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Have to wonder if this flash drought will have a feedback loop for July and August. Mother Nature always has the final say, never thought two weeks away we were going to have back to back brutal heatwaves. 
 

the pattern sucked for March, April, May. 

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With the recent acclimation factor, it seems quite possible that this won't feel quite as hot as the last round of heat.  Plus the actual heat index numbers may simply not top out quite as high.

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