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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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12 minutes ago, Anduril said:

Following this is just straight confusion...this storm needs to stop being bipolar on the models. Also currently sitting at 14.2F

I was off dealing with some irl stuff whats up with the storm now vs the models

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1 minute ago, Voyager said:

I just looked at maps down that way, and there's a house on Waldheim Road that is split in half by the state line. Of course I don't know their floor plan, but imagine. Living room is in a Winter Storm Warning and the kitchen just has a Winter Weather Advisory... :lol:

Lol, that is crazy. 

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9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is some a plus nowcasting! 

I honestly could see something fishy happen the storm goes way east or it goes to the lakes does a loopy loop and pin wheels and comes back at us. cause we have no storms behind it really

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

This weekend: Big snows to my N&W

Next weekend: Big snows to my S&E

Following weekend: Steelers win the AFC title. 

I was just listening to Meat Loaf's 2 Out Of 3 Ain't Bad.

I would love for the steelers to sit kc and patty back down at the kids table lol. its a far stretch tho. 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Absolutely...

Remember arcades lol. My parents dropped me and my brother off at the local mall in Baltimore city when we're like 9 and 11 lol. We played all day with a couple bucks .

Yep.  I played at the Carlisle Mj mall but same games.  Whoever made the joysticks for games like mortal kombat knew their stuff because  I body blow, body blowed like a mad man.   I also loved the USA vs a ussr stick hockey game with the plexiglass dome cover.  

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep.  I played at the Carlisle Mj mall but same games.  Whoever made the joysticks for games like mortal kombat knew their stuff because  I body blow, body blowed like a mad man.   I also loved the USA vs a ussr stick hockey game with the plexiglass dome cover.  

oh fragging joy 

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So real question here given this path is so very unique and never really happens much. how much climate wise do you think the models are missing for info? they are cycled patterns when the models are being put together right like thousands of times at least to see the different variations of outcomes? like this storm is %5 chance to happen liek the models are saying im just info picking cause I want to know :)

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Actually that's a good question.  Again my 30 years of actively following weather there's always surprises with strong coastals like this.  I'm hugging the Euro/ hrrr/ icon because I can lol

lol this is why im holding out hope the models just cause they all some what agree dont have a hold on it as many thing they do.

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Actually that's a good question.  Again my 30 years of actively following weather there's always surprises with strong coastals like this.  I'm hugging the Euro/ hrrr/ icon because I can lol

I think the writing is on the wall model wise until 12z.  If there is going to be any major changes, good or bad, that will be the time as the short wave will be moving up at that point.

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16 minutes ago, Ruin said:

lol this is why im holding out hope the models just cause they all some what agree dont have a hold on it as many thing they do.

Warm air nearly always wins here - almost always. It’s why I don’t buy the euro. I’ll be pretty shocked if I get 3” snow/sleet before rain washes it mostly away. 

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4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Warm air nearly always wins here - almost always. It’s why I don’t buy the euro. I’ll be pretty shocked if I get 3” snow/sleet before rain washes it mostly away. 

Not true id say %75 of the time yes but %25 I remember storms that for some reason the temps didnt get even to 30 even tho we were in the mid 20s other times we have been in the teens and just got to 20. its rare but it happens friend ive seen it. Talking about the warm air wins comment you posted should of been clear

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Just now, Ruin said:

Not true id say %75 of the time yes but %25 I remember storms that for some reason the temps didnt get even to 30 even tho we were in the mid 20s other times we have been in the teens and just got to 20. its rare but it happens friend ive seen it.

We do well with CAD but we can’t fight off a southerly influx. 
 

In 2019 we had a similar southerly flow than flipped snow to sleet and killed our expected 6”. We had 2.5” iirc of nearly all sleet. 

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5 minutes ago, canderson said:

We do well with CAD but we can’t fight off a southerly influx. 
 

In 2019 we had a similar southerly flow than flipped snow to sleet and killed our expected 6”. We had 2.5” iirc of nearly all sleet. 

true I cant remember the years but these storms I remember were coming from the south and were said to produce warmer temps they never did for some reason and it stayed all snow for a few storms. the other storms we had a nasty ice sleet storm That was the early 90s storm.

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6 minutes ago, canderson said:

We do well with CAD but we can’t fight off a southerly influx. 
 

In 2019 we had a similar southerly flow than flipped snow to sleet and killed our expected 6”. We had 2.5” iirc of nearly all sleet. 

That was the storm that CTP had Harrisburg warned for 8-12" the morning of the storm. For 2 days Horst was calling for 1-3" despite the fact that every other outlet was calling for WAY more than that.

Final totals across the LSV was 1-3" until you got out to Carlisle and west.

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