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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks for this great writeup! MJO seems to rule the day these days. Hopefully we can have some more solid winter before Spring. We have really only had about a month of it.

 

In some years it certainly does, in other years the PV does. Last Feb was PV driven that cold with the ssw. But yea, really up to how the mjo propagates through IO and into maritimes and at what speed.  

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49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

After this cold Jan/Feb hoping for March 2012. :sun:

Oh, shut up. You and Syrmax can go on a trip together and bask your hairy legs in the equatorial heat and sunlight of a tropical island. Haaaaaaave fuuuuuuuuuuuun! And may a Lake Erie Death Band rip and roar over the Hamburger in your absence!

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While temperatures will average above normal for much of this
period...a pattern change from one of a progressive flow to a more
highly amplified blocking one will lead to lower mercury readings as
we head from Friday into the ensuing weekend. The culprit for this
will be the building of a west coast ridge that will lock in a +PNA
pattern as we head into the middle of the month.

This supports the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from
the Climate Prediction Center which suggests below normal
temperatures of our region for much of the middle of the month.
Given the return of a locked in longwave trough over the eastern
conus...we can look forward to a higher potential for lake snows and
more frequent frontal passages from clipper systems.
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4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh, shut up. You and Syrmax can go on a trip together and bask your hairy legs in the equatorial heat and sunlight of a tropical island. Haaaaaaave fuuuuuuuuuuuun! And may a Lake Erie Death Band rip and roar over the Hamburger in your absence!

March 15th is my cut off date. Unless there is a big dog snowstorm coming I cheer for warmth and sun. Nov 1st-March 15th I cheer for cold and snow. I got strict guidelines. :lol:

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Next chance Monday into Tuesday albeit light..

The aforementioned weak sfc low will drag a cold front through our
region Monday night. There could be some flurries and nuisance snow
showers from this passage...but with the bulk of the energy from the
system being absorbed by a storm moving up the East coast...there
will be little forcing over our region. It may get cold enough
though for more numerous snow showers east of both lakes. Any minor
lake response should persist into Tuesday morning.
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7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Oh, shut up. You and Syrmax can go on a trip together and bask your hairy legs in the equatorial heat and sunlight of a tropical island. Haaaaaaave fuuuuuuuuuuuun! And may a Lake Erie Death Band rip and roar over the Hamburger in your absence!

Syrmax likes drizzle in snowstorms

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While temperatures will average above normal for much of this
period...a pattern change from one of a progressive flow to a more
highly amplified blocking one will lead to lower mercury readings as
we head from Friday into the ensuing weekend. The culprit for this
will be the building of a west coast ridge that will lock in a +PNA
pattern as we head into the middle of the month.

This supports the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from
the Climate Prediction Center which suggests below normal
temperatures of our region for much of the middle of the month.
Given the return of a locked in longwave trough over the eastern
conus...we can look forward to a higher potential for lake snows and
more frequent frontal passages from clipper systems.

If it's similar to what we had in January, one would think it wouldn't be as suppressed...leading to more wintry opportunities. I think it will be another period where not much shows on the models, and then little systems just "appear out of nowhere."

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30 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

that 8-14 day outlook to me is highly dependent on how mjo verifies. Could see that going warmer if mjo propagates faster towards maritimes. If gefs are right, then colder look will be correct

Should say, I think beginning of that period holds the cold, could be moderation for back half of that if euro guidance is right

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12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Rgem doing what the rgem does lol Fits the pattern though, missing the heaviest just to the south. Lol

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-05T112330.870.png

Gives a little bit of interest in what appears to be quite a boring weather week.

GFS advertising a nice, extended period of lake effect for the belts...especially those of us near Lake Ontario, starting over the weekend into next week.

 

snku_acc.us_ne.pngsn10_acc.us_ne.png

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Gives a little bit of interest in what appears to be quite a boring weather week.

GFS advertising a nice, extended period of lake effect for the belts...especially those of us near Lake Ontario, starting over the weekend into next week.

 

snku_acc.us_ne.pngsn10_acc.us_ne.png

Hey now be careful with those Kuchera maps. 

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2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Hey now be careful with those Kuchera maps. 

:) You have to know the appropriate setting for sharing them. Kuchera can easily verify with Lake effect opportunities. It's not wise to use them for synoptic events, unless we are talking Alberta Clippers in a cold, clipper pattern.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

:) You have to know the appropriate setting for sharing them. Kuchera can easily verify with Lake effect opportunities. It's not wise to use them for synoptic events, unless we are talking Alberta Clippers in a cold, clipper pattern.

I know. Areas that got lake enhanced verified. 

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31 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

2 periods to watch IMO for next widespread snow fall would be the wed night into Friday AM timeframe with a clipper and should get a lake response, esp with Ontario. Then another clipper for Friday PM into Sunday AM 

Agreed. Euro then follows that up with a Valentine's Day snowstorm that would be the most widespread snowstorm of the season for several subforums. If only:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Agreed. Euro then follows that up with a Valentine's Day snowstorm that would be the most widespread snowstorm of the season for several subforums. If only:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

yea that period has been on and off hinted at by ens for a while now. Could be a nice 4-5 day stretch starting wed PM and maybe finishing up with a big event if the pieces come together right  Thats a nice stout pna ridge out west euro hinted at, lets see if eps agree 

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Next week looks somewhat on the drier side besides a little JP over the tug..These clippers that go north of Ontario don't tend to have much synoptic moisture and could even introduce mixing..It's basically LES or nothing lol Not really seeing much wide spread with the GFS being the most favorable..

p168i (40).gif

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Next week looks somewhat on the drier side besides a little JP over the tug..These clippers that go north of Ontario don't tend to have much synoptic moisture and could even introduce mixing..It's basically LES or nothing lol Not really seeing much wide spread with the GFS being the most favorable..

 

 

Debbie-Downer.jpg

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Haha just trying to keep it real brother..We all know this will change but this is usually the type of pattern that Dave would call garbage lol I myself like"chaos".. Northern stream disturbances and inland runners lol One of my biggest LES events last year was a synoptic rain maker..(apps runner)..Weak waves that pass to my SE don't do much for me..(Downsloping NE wind)

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-05T142736.320.png

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-05T142817.815.png

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Haha just trying to keep it real brother..We all know this will change but this is usually the type of pattern that Dave would call garbage lol I myself like"chaos".. Northern stream disturbances and inland runners lol One of my biggest LES events last year was a synoptic rain maker..(apps runner)..Weak waves that pass to my SE don't do much for me..

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-05T142736.320.png

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-05T142817.815.png

the euro looked pretty good to me for a nice refresher later in the week with some clippers. Gfs has been advertising the same in that timeframe. 

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