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Winter 2021/22 December Thread


AMZ8990
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The GFS speculates that any unfortunate aridity shall soon come to an end with our normal La Nina El Nino Winter monsoon pattern. Just think what surpluses of rain John could reach between today and April?!?!

Trend gif of the last approx. 16 runs of the GFS total precip

giphy.gif

 

EPS members (admittedly only one run) seem a bit drier:

3g5h3HM.png

 

But you know, if the we do actually get into the floody pattern that we all know and love, soon janetjanet will pay us a visit or two. 

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Hoping we see some of that rain.  We are far, far from flooding problems IMBY.   The Euro Weeklies from Monday were bleak in that regard.  Hopefully as La Nina improves during the next 4-6 months, that will get better.   If we get under the return flow from the Bermuda High(meant as a joke...kind of), maybe we can get some rain.

1953587438_ScreenShot2021-12-01at7_50_50AM.png.74e0d94230c238ddb516340de57743d7.png

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Clean sunny SER! Just kidding. More likely Plains ridge with NW flow, still sunny. Variable east Tenn. Warm Mid-South. 

MJO resets warm phases Maritime Continent. Typhoon sapped the West Pac energy. Got more action IO which will propagate to Indonesia. Bearish Southeast US.

Now if a trough can get into the Plains later in winter the Mid South still has a shot. I threw in the towel southeast Tenn. I can do that it's now meteorological winter.

NWP is a bearish blowtorch this morning. Why summarize it? Kindergarten taught us if we don't have anything nice to say... Did I already break/shatter that rule?

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28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sitting the school car line, but just wanted to state that the 12z Euro is quite the break from continuity from d5-10.

I saw that Carver. Probably temporary or a bad run. We have a ways to go before we get into a more favorable pattern for winter weather here. They say all it takes is one winter event to get to average or close

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Canada seems to be staying cold so that's a positive. 

Normally, I would toss the Euro.  I remember years ago that I was trying to convince John that November was going to be warm.  Every model had it, especially the Euro...until it cracked in one run. So, I have learned my lesson.  I tend to question modeling which doesn’t show at least some variation.   That November Euro would then waffle around for a few days, until it finally flipped.    
 

The CPC MJO data is trending to 7 with some 8 showing in the individual ensembles.  D’Aleo had a great article today on the MJO.  Basically said the BN SSTs in the 7, 8, and 1 regions (La Nina) are not allowing waves to propagate into colder regions.  Said this is why models are sending the MJO into 7 and stalling or circling back to 6.  So the big question is does it stall in phase 7 or loop back to 6?  It may well be that we see some loops from 6-7 and back in a wash-rinse-repeat cycle.  If so, the pattern will be more transient than models have depicted.  I am super suspicious of the wall-to-wall warmer look.  Runs against a big cluster of climatology.   So, we will see if the Euro is a one-off.  Should see it bounce around some of it is legit.   It would take very little to move the needle towards cold.  The -QBO is a surprise this winter and will have to be dealt with at some point.  We usually get our share of winter here at some point.  

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Normally, I would toss the Euro.  I remember years ago that I was trying to convince John that November was going to be warm.  Every model had it, especially the Euro...until it cracked in one run. So, I have learned my lesson.  I tend to question modeling which doesn’t show at least some variation.   That November Euro would then waffle around for a few days, until it finally flipped.    
 

The CPC MJO data is trending to 7 with some 8 showing in the individual ensembles.  D’Aleo had a great article today on the MJO.  Basically said the BN SSTs in the 7, 8, and 1 regions (La Nina) are not allowing waves to propagate into colder regions.  Said this is why models are sending the MJO into 7 and stalling or circling back to 6.  So the big question is does it stall in phase 7 or loop back to 6?  It may well be that we see some loops from 6-7 and back in a wash-rinse-repeat cycle.  If so, the pattern will be more transient than models have depicted.  I am super suspicious of the wall-to-wall warmer look.  Runs against a big cluster of climatology.   So, we will see if the Euro is a one-off.  Should see it bounce around some of it is legit.   It would take very little to move the needle towards cold.  The -QBO is a surprise this winter and will have to be dealt with at some point.  We usually get our share of winter here at some point.  

Yeah not ready to cancel winter December 1st and as this warmth is not welcome,  it could mean a turn to much colder weather near Christmas which would work out well or we could still be sitting at 70 degrees for Christmas lol. 

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

To clarify.....that November turned out super cold!!!   LOL.  Models were locked on warm.  Looked like a slam dunk, and bam!  They reversed course.  May very well have been a La Niña year.  Happy first day of met winter, everyone!  

It is very interesting to see runs be so steady with little to no cold shots for the next 2 weeks. Could be right or could be a swing and a miss.

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Normally, I would toss the Euro.  I remember years ago that I was trying to convince John that November was going to be warm.  Every model had it, especially the Euro...until it cracked in one run. So, I have learned my lesson.  I tend to question modeling which doesn’t show at least some variation.   That November Euro would then waffle around for a few days, until it finally flipped.    
 

The CPC MJO data is trending to 7 with some 8 showing in the individual ensembles.  D’Aleo had a great article today on the MJO.  Basically said the BN SSTs in the 7, 8, and 1 regions (La Nina) are not allowing waves to propagate into colder regions.  Said this is why models are sending the MJO into 7 and stalling or circling back to 6.  So the big question is does it stall in phase 7 or loop back to 6?  It may well be that we see some loops from 6-7 and back in a wash-rinse-repeat cycle.  If so, the pattern will be more transient than models have depicted.  I am super suspicious of the wall-to-wall warmer look.  Runs against a big cluster of climatology.   So, we will see if the Euro is a one-off.  Should see it bounce around some of it is legit.   It would take very little to move the needle towards cold.  The -QBO is a surprise this winter and will have to be dealt with at some point.  We usually get our share of winter here at some point.  

Yeah, definitely need SSTs to warm at least in that Nina location. If not, pray for the ssw to come thru and pop hlb. 

   For cold/snow lovers that could salvage January and a weakened Nina may Feb.

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Overnight Euro starting to get ye olden rainy GFS look:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611d5f88a1f49439aefb4

 

Let's consider the OP's Norther American look at the end of its run:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76115fd6b8d9ce406970b8

 

Obviously not a good look, but how many good looks have we seen at 240 hours that dissolve within even 7 days? 

Even if this does happen, (climatologically more likely than a good look for us) notice the connection between the SE ridge and ridging over Baffin Bay. Carvers, I think, remembers that look from 2018. 

Might could be some warming up yonder:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611be3cd875b260efbbc1

 

now a little bit lower at 50mb:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76115f9c36d45cdfebea61

To me, even though the temp anomalies are close to stacked up, they don't quite sync up, so there is some instability (TBH not sure if that is the right word for anything that high up)

I think there's some interesting stuff happening in the strat, but not only do we have to get to mid December to see how it plays out up there, but then we have to wait to see how and if it trickles down to the troposphere. 

 

GFS is not as enthused as the Euro for the temp anomalies.

 

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9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Overnight Euro starting to get ye olden rainy GFS look:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611d5f88a1f49439aefb4

 

Let's consider the OP's Norther American look at the end of its run:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76115fd6b8d9ce406970b8

 

Obviously not a good look, but how many good looks have we seen at 240 hours that dissolve within even 7 days? 

Even if this does happen, (climatologically more likely than a good look for us) notice the connection between the SE ridge and ridging over Baffin Bay. Carvers, I think, remembers that look from 2018. 

Might could be some warming up yonder:

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611be3cd875b260efbbc1

 

now a little bit lower at 50mb:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76115f9c36d45cdfebea61

To me, even though the temp anomalies are close to stacked up, they don't quite sync up, so there is some instability (TBH not sure if that is the right word for anything that high up)

I think there's some interesting stuff happening in the strat, but not only do we have to get to mid December to see how it plays out up there, but then we have to wait to see how and if it trickles down to the troposphere. 

 

GFS is not as enthused as the Euro for the temp anomalies.

 

Good post.  Will be interesting to see if the MJO sorts itself out during the next couple of days.  WxBell has had some good articles about it - D'Aleo's, as I mentioned yesterday, discussion was stellar.  The SSW potential is there, meaning sudden warming is modeled in the stratosphere.  I think the warmth Dec 10-20th is legit.  I think the anomalies will be warm enough to make December as they will override and BN days.   After Christmas, all bets are off.  Lots of conflicting signals out there.  And yes, as we previously spoke in this thread, ridges that connect into high latitudes from low latitudes are often like bringing a jack hammer into a China shop regarding what happens after that.    My guess would be that cold is going going to press into the western forum area after the 20th.   Will go back and look at trends in a bit.  CFSv2 is definitely interesting.  Could just be a blip and/or the model just a wicked cold bias...Modeling the next few days will be interesting to watch.

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31 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

I hope this winter is not a repeat of 2018-2019 rain rain and nothing but cold rain for months on end.  

The cold snap of 17-18 isn't spoken about much as it produce very little snow and bitterly cold temps.  It occurred at the end of December and went to mid-January.  That was pretty much it for that winter if I remember correctly.  Would not surprise me to see a similar event.  If that cold spell had not straddled two months, it would have created a ridiculously cold anomaly for a month.  That cold shot is hidden buried in monthly climatology by means which were warmer on the front and back end of that cold snap.   That cold snap was preceded by very warm tempt, almost 15 degree departures during a few of the days prior.  The rivers here in NE TN (which didn't have dams on them and warmer generator flows) froze almost solid.  I remember seeing squirrels walking across creeks which were frozen solid but nearly clear ice due to lack of snow.  The squirrel looked as curious  as me when it walked out there.    This reminds me a lot of that winter.  If we had any precip at all, would have been more memorable than it was.

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The 12z CMC is now showing a similar break(like the Euro yesterday) from continuity.  The MJO is now almost universally in phase 7 in the medium to LR which is a cold signal west of the Apps (warm for January though).  At 144 the CMC has a severe ice storm for western North Carolina.  Interesting this is the timeframe which was showing up on modeling a few days ago and then went poof!  Probably a one-off, but that CMC run is not warm.   Details embedded within patterns are what matter.  Beware when cracks start to show in modeling, especially with the MJO showing high amplitude into phase 7 on some modeling. 

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1 hour ago, Dsty2001 said:

I had just moved back to TN at the end of 2017 and was driving trucks over the road at the time.  I seem to remember a surprise snow storm during that winter that dumped several inches but it quickly melted at least in White Pine.  

Very possible.  Seems like that area may have had some snow that we didn't have in NE TN.  We have family in Mo-town.  

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z CMC is now showing a similar break(like the Euro yesterday) from continuity.  The MJO is now almost universally in phase 7 in the medium to LR which is a cold signal west of the Apps (warm for January though).  At 144 the CMC has a severe ice storm for western North Carolina.  Interesting this is the timeframe which was showing up on modeling a few days ago and then went poof!  Probably a one-off, but that CMC run is not warm.   Details embedded within patterns are what matter.  Beware when cracks start to show in modeling, especially with the MJO showing high amplitude into phase 7 on some modeling. 

Probably a  volatile period coming up around next weekend.Big trough going through East Asia,typhoon and a Rex block around the Western Aleutians

gfs_z500a_wpac_1.png

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Agree, Jax.  Probably more likely severe than wintry but who knows.  Just looking through model ensembles.  The 12z EPS late in the run is trying to bring a ridge into the GOA(also found on the control run as well, especially the control run).    Maybe a -EPO develops after that?  10th-20th looks pretty well set though as Jax mentions the 11-12th may hold some surprises in terms of the 500 pattern.  Get a ridge in the GOA, and the western trough is either going to be very sharp or forced to kick eastward.  So after the 20th, could be a continuation of a western trough or a ridge out West could develop for a time.

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Agree, Jax.  Probably more likely severe than wintry but who knows.  Just looking through model ensembles.  The 12z EPS late in the run is trying to bring a ridge into the GOA(also found on the control run as well, especially the control run).    Maybe a -EPO develops after that?  10th-20th looks pretty well set though as Jax mentions the 11-12th may hold some surprises in terms of the 500 pattern.  Get a ridge in the GOA, and the western trough is either going to be very sharp or forced to kick eastward.  So after the 20th, could be a continuation of a western trough or a ridge out West could develop for a time.

A guy in another forum said it all starts around Asia and west Pacific where changes have to be made if we are to get out of this stagnant warm pattern. He mentioned the +AAM but I thought we was currently in a -AAM. 

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21 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

A guy in another forum said it all starts around Asia and west Pacific where changes have to be made if we are to get out of this stagnant warm pattern. He mentioned the +AAM but I thought we was currently in a -AAM. 

Jeff is the guru with angular momentum stuff.  I admittedly look at not as often as I should.

For me, some things in the LR don't quite add up.  That said, there are some Nina's which were very warm winters.  I highly doubt we go 12 weeks without some chances.  Biggest concern right now is the dry pattern.  I have generally found that winters with few chances often have very long periods where it doesn't have any precip.  That means that an unfavorable temp pattern combined with drought makes it super difficult to sync cold air and infrequent precip.  So, we need the frequency of precip to increase in addition to a more favorable temp pattern in the LR.  It is really dry IMBY.  That needs to change.  

As for where the pattern begins.  I have always felt that because the weather pattern is a circle of sorts, it is hard to tell what causes what.  SSTs are generally a great place.  However, mountain torque is an under discussed driver(maybe the Urals?).  Snow cover does matter.  Sea ice numbers across the North Pole matter.  I would suspect dust from the Sahara probably has some influence.  And on and on....  But I generally agree that Eastern Asia and the Pacific are big drivers.  Jax and Jeff look at those regions much more than I do, and know way more than me regarding those regions.  Jax has a website that is pretty cool which correlates Bering Sea 500 heights with our regions.  High latitude blocking is also important - reference to the SSW discussions.  Just really looking for the driver each winter.  I generally have found that when we are talking about the MJO in this forum, that the pattern has gone to crap!  LOL.  Right now, the MJO is the driver.  That could change.

My rule of thumb is the winter pattern begins to show itself around the third or fourth week of December.  I do suspect the November pattern will repeat at some point.  Get us some thunder in the mountains, and we know the change is coming.  Going to enjoy running in some nice weather.  Those November low temps were kicking my tail, man.  LOL.  It was cold in the morning here!!!!

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59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jeff is the guru with angular momentum stuff.  I admittedly look at not as often as I should.

For me, some things in the LR don't quite add up.  That said, there are some Nina's which were very warm winters.  I highly doubt we go 12 weeks without some chances.  Biggest concern right now is the dry pattern.  I have generally found that winters with few chances often have very long periods where it doesn't have any precip.  That means that an unfavorable temp pattern combined with drought makes it super difficult to sync cold air and infrequent precip.  So, we need the frequency of precip to increase in addition to a more favorable temp pattern in the LR.  It is really dry IMBY.  That needs to change.  

As for where the pattern begins.  I have always felt that because the weather pattern is a circle of sorts, it is hard to tell what causes what.  SSTs are generally a great place.  However, mountain torque is an under discussed driver(maybe the Urals?).  Snow cover does matter.  Sea ice numbers across the North Pole matter.  I would suspect dust from the Sahara probably has some influence.  And on and on....  But I generally agree that Eastern Asia and the Pacific are big drivers.  Jax and Jeff look at those regions much more than I do, and know way more than me regarding those regions.  Jax has a website that is pretty cool which correlates Bering Sea 500 heights with our regions.  High latitude blocking is also important - reference to the SSW discussions.  Just really looking for the driver each winter.  I generally have found that when we are talking about the MJO in this forum, that the pattern has gone to crap!  LOL.  Right now, the MJO is the driver.  That could change.

My rule of thumb is the winter pattern begins to show itself around the third or fourth week of December.  I do suspect the November pattern will repeat at some point.  Get us some thunder in the mountains, and we know the change is coming.  Going to enjoy running in some nice weather.  Those November low temps were kicking my tail, man.  LOL.  It was cold in the morning here!!!!

The issue is that other than outside elevated areas, its difficult to see winterstorms in November. Strongest niño on record 15-16, my area got a freezing drizzle event and ULL with some snow before the blizzard hit mid Atlantic in mid January. Nashville got hit hard. Not bad in a record strong elniño. 

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