July 2021 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg rel to 1991-2020 averages) for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

on-time deadline for entries is 06z Thursday July 1st. 

[Roger Smith]

+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +3.0 _ +3.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +4.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.5

[bkviking]

 

DCA: +1.8

NYC: +2.1

BOS: +2.1

ORD: +1.9

ATL: +0.5

IAH: -1.8

DEN: +2.7

PHX: +1.1

SEA: +2.9

 

[Tom]

DCA: +1.9

NYC: +1.9

BOS: +2.0

ORD: +2.0

ATL: +1.1

IAH: +0.5

DEN: +1.8

PHX: +1.5

SEA: +1.8

[wxallannj]

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +2.0

BOS: +2.3

ORD: +1.2

ATL: +0.3

IAH: -0.8

DEN: +1.5

PHX: +1.0

SEA: +2.0

 

[so_whats_happening]

DCA: +1.8

NYC: +2.3

BOS: +2.7

ORD: +1.7

ATL: +1.1

IAH: +0.6

DEN: +3.0

PHX: +2.5

SEA: +2.4

[donsutherland1]

2.0 _ 1.8 _ 1.5 _ 1.5 _ -0.1 _ -0.2 _ 0.3 _ 1.5 _ 1.7

[Rjay]

DCA: +3.0

NYC: +3.0

BOS: +3.0

ORD: +2.5

ATL: +1.0

IAH:  0.0

DEN: +3.0

PHX: +2.5

SEA: +2.5

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

2.0      1.5     1.0         1.0      1.5     2.0          1.0     2.0      1.0

 

[RodneyS]

-0.3 _ 0.5 _ 0.5 _ 0.9 _ -0.9 _ 0.1 _ 1.1 _ 0.5 _ 2.0

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA: +2.2

NYC: +1.7

BOS: +1.9

ORD: +1.3

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +0.2

DEN: +1.4

PHX: +1.3

SEA: +1.4

[wxdude64]

DCA:  +0.7

NYC:  +2.5

BOS:  +2.5

ORD:  +2.2

ATL:  -0.4

IAH:  -0.5

DEN:  +1.9

PHX:  +2.2

SEA:  +2.6

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for July 2021

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ bias (rel to con)

 

RJay _______________________ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___ +0.63

hudsonvalley21 ____________ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.9 __ +1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.2 ___ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 ___ --0.29

Roger Smith ________________ +2.0 _ +2.2 _ +3.0 __ +3.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +4.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.5 ___ +1.13

DonSutherland1 ____________ +2.0 _ +1.8 _ +1.5 __ +1.5 _ --0.1 _ --0.2 ___ +0.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.7 ___ --0.53

Scotty Lightning ____________ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 ___ --0.20

Tom ________________________ +1.9 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.0 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 ___ --0.03

 

___ Consensus ______________ +1.9 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +1.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.1 ___ +1.9 _ +1.8 _ +2.2

 

so_whats_happening ________+1.8 _ +2.3 _ +2.7 __ +1.7 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.4 ___ +0.37

BKViking ____________________+1.8 _ +2.1 _ +2.1 __ +1.9 _ +0.5 _ --1.8 ___ +2.7 _ +1.1 _ +2.9 ___ --0.17

Deformation Zone ___________+1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ --1.0 ___ +3.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 ___ +0.19

wxallannj ___________________ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.3 __ +1.2 _ +0.3 _ --0.8 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 ___ --0.42

wxdude64 __________________ +0.7 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 __ +2.2 _ --0.4 _ --0.5 ___ +1.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.6 ___ --0.12

___ Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ --1.64

RodneyS ____________________--0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +0.9 _ --0.9 _ +0.1 ___ +1.1 _ +0.5 _ +2.0 ___ --1.16

=========================================================================

Warmest and coolest forecasts are color coded. Normal is coolest for NYC, BOS, ORD, DEN, PHX, SEA. 

The consensus values are medians, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. 

The bias statistic tells your average departure from consensus. The bias of --1.64 for Normal means that our average forecast is +1.64.

________________________

Welcome to Deformation Zone, enjoy the contest. 

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies and projections ...

_________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th __ (10d anom) _____ -2.0 _ -2.2 _ -3.7 __ -2.2 _ -2.4 _ -3.1 __ +1.9 _ +2.4 _ +1.3

21st __ (20d anom) _____+0.1 _ -0.9 _ -2.2 __ -2.8 _ -2.4 _ -2.1 __ +0.6 _ +0.8 _ -0.1

27th __ (26d anom) ____- 0.1 _ -1.2 _ -1.6 ___ -1.5 _ -1.7 _ -1.4 ___ +1.2 _ -1.9 _ +0.1

11th __ (p20d anom) ___ -0.5 __ 0.0 _ -0.5 __ -2.0 _ -2.0 _ -2.5 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5

11th __ (p27d anom) ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -2.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.5

21st __ (p31d anom) ___ -0.5 _ -1.5 _ -2.5 ___ -2.5 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 __ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.5

27th __ (p31d anom) ___ -0.5 _ -1.5 _ -2.0 ___ -2.0 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 __ +1.5 _ -1.5 _ +0.5

final anomalies _________ -0.1 _ -1.5 _ -1.7 ___ -1.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.1 ___ +1.6 _ -1.8 _ +0.9

____________________________________

11th _ Forecasts for both ten and sixteen days pretty much similar, eastern and most of central U.S. stay in a rather cool shallow trough situation that will maintain slightly below normal temperatures, and the west stays hot, again the biggest anomalies between SEA and DEN (my current temperature near 100F). 

14th _ Models have changed their output considerably for the east so I have adjusted the projections for the eastern locations. (turned out by too much as the earlier estimates were closer than the new ones) ...

21st _ Taking the current anomalies forward with little change as the pattern seems fairly static, the western warmth is definitely centered between SEA and DEN and well north of PHX in relative terms, running about +5 here. May post some provisional scores in a while. 

27th _ Anomalies updated, PHX dropped quite sharply with two days that had unusual -15 to -20 anomalies due to cloud and thunderstorm activity (highs only in 80s). 

31st-1st _ Final anomalies are now posted and BOS is now confirmed after the table had the 31st missing data (for most of Aug 1-2). Scores have not changed there because it was assumed that minimum progression would be needed.

Scores are being updated after final anomalies confirmed (this note will be removed when the scoring is all adjusted). 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for July 2021 

 

Scoring is based on the projected anomalies last calculated in the previous post. PHX and BOS currently scored by minimum progression (max 60) as highest raw scores are 54 and 56. 

Scoring is probably final, BOS has to be confirmed but is likely to need the minimum progression as shown. Also the quality control step has not been passed at this point (where I double check scoring before adjusting the annual summary). 

 

FORECASTER _____________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTALS

 

___ Normal _________________98 _ 70 _ 66 __ 234 __ 80 _ 80 _ 78 __ 238 __ 472 __ 68 _ 64 _ 82__ 214 ____ 686  

 

RodneyS __________________ 96 _ 60 _ 60^__ 216 __ 62 _98 _ 76__ 236 __ 452 __ 90 _ 60^_ 78 __ 228 ____ 680

wxallannj ___________________68 _ 30 _ 30^__ 128 __ 56 _ 74 _ 94 __ 224 __ 352 __ 98 _ 55^_ 78 __ 231 ____ 583

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 54 _ 36 _ 45^__ 135 __ 54 _ 64 _ 74 __ 192 __ 327 __ 96 _ 45^_ 90 __ 231 ____ 558

DonSutherland1 ____________58 _ 34 _ 50^__ 142 __ 50 _ 82 _ 82 __ 214 __ 356 __  74 _ 40^_ 84 __ 198 ____ 554

wxdude64 __________________84 _ 20 _ 25^__ 129 __ 36 _ 88 _ 88 __ 212 __ 341 __ 94 _ 20^_ 66 __ 180 ____ 521

Scotty Lightning ____________58 _ 40 _ 55^__ 153 __ 60 _ 50 _ 38 __ 148 __ 301 __ 88 _ 30^_ 98 __ 216 ____ 517

Tom ________________________ 60 _ 32 _ 40^__ 132 __ 40 _ 58 _ 68 __ 166 __ 298 __ 96 _ 40^_ 82 __ 218 ____ 516 

BKViking ____________________62 _ 28 _ 35^__ 125 __ 42 _ 70 _ 86 __ 198 __ 323 __ 78 _ 50^_ 60 __ 188 ____ 511

 

___ Consensus _____________ 60 _ 30 _ 32^__ 122 __ 44 _ 62 _ 76 __ 182 __ 304 __ 94 _ 32^_ 74 __ 200 ____ 504

 

Deformation Zone ___________68 _ 30 _ 25^__ 123 __ 40 _ 50 _ 98 __ 188 __ 311 __ 62 _ 30^_ 68 __ 160 ____ 471

so_whats_happening ________62 _ 24 _ 15^__ 101 ___ 46 _ 58 _ 66 __ 170 __ 271 __ 72 _ 15^_ 70 __ 157 ____ 428

RJay ________________________ 38 _ 10 _ 10^__ 058 __ 30 _ 60 _ 78 __ 168 __ 226 __ 72 _ 15^_ 68 __ 155 ____ 381

Roger Smith ________________ 58 _ 26 _ 10^__ 094 __ 14 _ 50 _ 48 __ 112 ___ 206 __ 52 _ 05^_ 48 __ 105 ____ 311

_________________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT 

DCA _ At -0.1, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (-0.3). Normal also has a win.

NYC _ At -1.5, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.5). Normal also scores a win.

BOS _ At -1.5 or lower, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.5). Normal also scores a win.

ORD _ At -1.0, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (+0.9). Normal also scores a win.

ATL _ At -1.0, a win for RodneyS with coldest forecast (-0.9). 

IAH _ At -1.1, this is a loss for BKViking with coldest forecast (-1.8) and a win for Deformation Zone with second coldest (-1.0). 

PHX _ At -1.8, a win for RodneyS with coolest forecast (+0.5). Normal also scores a win.

SEA _ At +0.9, a win for Scotty Lightning with coldest forecast (+1.0). 

summary: 6 wins for RodneyS, five for Normal, one each for Scotty Lightning and Deformation Zone. A loss for BKViking. 

__________

DEN (+1.6) finished closer to our consensus than the other eight and does not qualify for an extreme forecast.

__________

I may need a bit of extra time to get to the annual update, scores are generally close together for most and there won't be much change in the order. 

___________ _ _ _ _ _

Annual scoring summary will follow when these numbers are confirmed (only small adjustments are likely). 

[Roger Smith]

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-July) - - - - ============ >>>> 

 

High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. June provisional scores are used and adjustments will be made here to reflect changes there. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Normal passed three forecasters in July, but they remained in same order relative to each other, so their change is shown as zero, Normal is shown up 3. RodneyS moved ahead of four and also consensus, which is why consensus is shown down 1.   

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 486 _508 _386 _ 1380 __447 _528 _472 _1447__2827 __322 _492 _468 _ 1282___ 4109

BKViking ______________________478 _522 _409 _ 1409 __350 _490 _432 _ 1272__2681 __358 _452 _482 _ 1292___ 3973

RodneyS (up 4) _______________488 _506 _361 _ 1355 __333 _510 _412 _ 1255 __2610 __390 _476 _480 _ 1346___ 3956

wxdude64 (down 1) __________ 537 _501 _403 _ 1441 __ 325 _448 _431 _ 1204__2645 __427 _449 _431 _ 1307___ 3952

 

___ Consensus (down 1) _____ 508 _522 _390 _ 1420 __340 _458 _438 _ 1236 __2656 __360 _438 _458 _ 1256___ 3912

 

wxallannj (up 1) ________________434 _480 _372 _ 1286 __320 _440 _494 _ 1254 __2540 __448 _441 _474 _1363___ 3903

Tom (down 2) __________________496 _537 _436 _ 1469__298 _399 _462 _ 1159 __2628 __410 _445 _414 _ 1269___ 3897

hudsonvalley21 (down 2) _____ 480 _490 _427 _ 1397 __341 _504 _410 _ 1255 __2652 __308 _425 _496 _ 1229___ 3881

___ Normal (up 3) _____________ 498 _448 _310 _ 1256 __234 _464 _466 _ 1164 __2420 __416 _436 _432 _ 1284___ 3704

so_whats_happening __________ 515 _471 _301 _ 1287 __394 _508 _351 _ 1253 __2540 __290 _428 _427 _ 1145___ 3685

Scotty Lightning _______________474 _472 _334 _ 1280 __252 _440 _412 _ 1104 __2384 __386 _442 _470 _ 1298___ 3682

RJay __________________________ 410 _436 _404 _ 1250 __356 _410 _394 _ 1160 __2410 __296 _347 _370 _ 1013___ 3423

Roger Smith ___________________ 414 _348 _165 __ 927 __323 _364 _446 _ 1133 __ 2060 __316 _375 _428 _ 1119___ 3179

Deformation Zone _ (1/8) ______ 68 __ 30 __ 25 __ 123 __ 40 __ 50 __ 98 __ 188 ____ 311 __ 62 _ 30^_ 68 ___ 160 ____ 471

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

BKViking _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr

RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 2 __ Feb, Jul 

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 2 _____ 0 __  

Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

___ Normal ___________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May, Jul 

so_whats_happening _________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) 

Scotty Lightning ______________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

RJay _________________________ 0 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0 __  

Roger Smith __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1  __Jun 

Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 0  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

So far this year, 46 locations out of 63 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July.

Of those, 22 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 24 to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been six shared wins (one by three) accounting for the 46 total wins (excl Normal). 

 

FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _____ TOTAL to date

RodneyS ______________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 ___ 9-1

wxallannj ______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- ___ 8-0

___ Normal _____________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 ___ 8-0

DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- ___ 8-1

Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- ___ 8-1

RJay ___________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- ___ 6-0

so_whats_happening ___--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- ___ 4-0

wxdude64 _____________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- ___ 3-0

Tom ____________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- ___ 2-0

BKViking _______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 ___ 2-1

Scotty Lightning _______ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 ___ 2-1

Deformation Zone _____ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 ___ 1-0

[so_whats_happening]

Wow congratulations Rodney S some good forecasting there!