NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Potential - Part 4

[tombo82685]

HUGE. I forecasted out there for a year, and without the lake and the Wasatch Front completely blocking up the flow, they would be as dry as the desert out east. That whole depression east of SLC is a void of nothing because it is so amazingly dry as west flow downslopes into the Salt Flats.

i didn't know salt lake city got much lake effect. When i think of lake effect that would of been the last place i would of guessed. What is there avg snowfall? Do you know how much of that is lake effect compared to synoptic?

[simpsonsbuff]

I believe they lost over 1 million since their height, and I think the population is still dwindling, so that may be hard to do. Or maybe that is why you added the "lol" at the end, lol.

Michigan is the ONLY state to lose people since 2000.

As for the SREF, I like the trend.

[A-L-E-X]

I wonder how much lake effect Lake Agassiz got when it was around-- that thing was a BEAST!

[baroclinic_instability]

According to their NWS page, they have only had 2 storms of more than 12" in the last 30 years...and they are just the 26th most populous city in nation...they are on the wrong side of the Lake, most of the time.

http://www.crh.noaa....ate/memsnow.php

Yeah good point, they don't do well. Most Colorado Lows/Panhandle Hookers have a surface low that tracks generally right along the MN/IA/WI borders before occluding. MIL gets shafted big time on the warm side and MPX gets the trowal/deformation band.

[A-L-E-X]

According to their NWS page, they have only had 2 storms of more than 12" in the last 30 years...and they are just the 26th most populous city in nation...they are on the wrong side of the Lake, most of the time.

http://www.crh.noaa....ate/memsnow.php

How does Chicago do for big storms, William?

[baroclinic_instability]

i didn't know salt lake city got much lake effect. When i think of lake effect that would of been the last place i would of guessed. What is there avg snowfall? Do you know how much of that is lake effect compared to synoptic?

There was a paper that suggested 30% was lake effect. They rarely get true synoptic snow though. The main reason they average so much snow is because the Wasatch Range is the first large N-S mountain range Pacific systems hit after the Sierra NEvada. It is long enough to "block" westerly flow, and it is quite common to see snow just "bunch up" in westerly flow, especially stable cold air advection. Without the Wasatch Front/GSL, SLC would be a desert like the surrounding flats.

I talk about the froude number and mountain blocking here. Same idea applies to SLC.

http://jasonahsenmacher.wordpress.com/2010/11/16/the-froude-number-and-stable-flow-mountain-blocking/

[nzucker]

and dont forget our great weak la ninas either, Zuck. That's my favorite ENSO lol. Both for our extremely hot summers, which I treasure, and for great snowfall winters. Really good for tropical season too!

Yes, we did very well in weak Niñas and negative-neutral years in that time period. We had 59-60 (negative-neutral with March 1960 blizzard), 60-61 (negative-neutral with 3 major snowstorms and a memorable arctic outbreak in late January), and 66-67 (weak Niña, great February/March winter).

I wonder how much lake effect Lake Agassiz got when it was around-- that thing was a BEAST!

It was probably frozen too often though.

Yeah good point, they don't do well. Most Colorado Lows/Panhandle Hookers have a surface low that tracks generally right along the MN/IA/WI borders before occluding. MIL gets shafted big time on the warm side and MPX gets the trowal/deformation band.

Yeah there is quite a difference there between Milwaukee and Madison. MSP has also finally started to cash in this season, as they should with their colder climate, compared to years past when Minneapolis seemed to get screwed compared to good snowfalls in Madison, Chicago, and Des Moines. Perhaps things are evening out now in the Midwest with regards to snowfall. MSP must have close to 40" on the season, already, and the parade of SW flow and lakes cutter storms hasn't even begun.

[baroclinic_instability]

I camped in the Mirror Lake Recreation Area near Salt Lake City this summer, was one of the most gorgeous places I have ever seen. The higher elevations are lush with wildflower meadows ablaze in color, dramatic waterfalls, crystal-clear lakes, etc. I found the forest to also be very beautiful in the region, definitely a favorite spot of mine and I only paid $3/night for a primitive camping space. I love Utah, it is amazing scenery and Salt Lake City seemed like a very picturesque, comfortable and safe place to live or visit.

Uinta Range is gorgeous! Great way to get away from the crowds in the Wasatch Range. But I do agree, the whole area is scenic, but it can get ugly in winter because SLC sees nasty winter time inversions and awful air pollution. Sometimes it gets so bad they issue air quality alerts when the inversions get bad. The sun is not visible at its worst.

[baroclinic_instability]

Yeah there is quite a difference there between Milwaukee and Madison. MSP has also finally started to cash in this season, as they should with their colder climate, compared to years past when Minneapolis seemed to get screwed compared to good snowfalls in Madison, Chicago, and Des Moines. Perhaps things are evening out now in the Midwest with regards to snowfall. MSP must have close to 40" on the season, already, and the parade of SW flow and lakes cutter storms hasn't even begun.

Yeah, MPX has done awful the last 7-8 years. Detroit has averaged more snowfall the last 7 years I believe, and MPX averages more overall per year. A lot of snow dependent industries have really been hurting the last 5 years, so it is good MPX is doing well this winter economy wise.

[tombo82685]

6z nam is deff more amplified with the trof coming down.

[weathercoins]

... And in other entirely unrelated news... SREFs look real good.

[baroclinic_instability]

Just looking already the NAM it is too far N and has too much of an easterly component on the backside of the trough at 39 to develop much of anything this run. I have a feeling it will be OTS.

[earthlight]

The NAM took a huge step towards a more amplified solution at 06z thus far..everything looks better.

[Absolute Humidity]

Is that a Norlun like feature or ULL causing the plume of precip over NJ on SREF?

[baroclinic_instability]

6z nam is deff more amplified with the trof coming down.

Looks better than the 0Z at the same time, but I am not sure it will be enough yet.

[earthlight]

Just looking already the NAM it is too far N and has too much of an easterly component on the backside of the trough at 39 to develop much of anything this run. I have a feeling it will be OTS.

Agree...but comparing the 45 hr H5 chart to the 51hr 00z chart..it's ridiculous how much improved it is. Might not get the job done, but there are still some rather significant changes going on at H5 on the guidance.

[tombo82685]

you can deff see the nam is more amplified, but its not really that close to the gfs comparing it to hr 51 of the gfs. Gfs looks a little slower also looks like better consolidated energy on the backside of the trof while the nam looks kind of scrambled

[CooL]

The trough definately tightened up more over the east..

[earthlight]

48 hours 06 compared to 54 hrs 00z...the only word to describe it is "better".

[earthlight]

Literally gut wrenchingly close at 54 hours when you watch the interactions aloft.

[baroclinic_instability]

Agree...but comparing the 45 hr H5 chart to the 51hr 00z chart..it's ridiculous how much improved it is. Might not get the job done, but there are still some rather significant changes going on at H5 on the guidance.

Yeah definitely much better. We need it to take a much more amplified, and slower track, for this to bomb and not head OTS. Nice trend though, but GFS is almost perfect with what we have to work with, and the NAM will have to improve a lot to get to the 0Z GFS.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes, we did very well in weak Niñas and negative-neutral years in that time period. We had 59-60 (negative-neutral with March 1960 blizzard), 60-61 (negative-neutral with 3 major snowstorms and a memorable arctic outbreak in late January), and 66-67 (weak Niña, great February/March winter).

It was probably frozen too often though.

Yeah there is quite a difference there between Milwaukee and Madison. MSP has also finally started to cash in this season, as they should with their colder climate, compared to years past when Minneapolis seemed to get screwed compared to good snowfalls in Madison, Chicago, and Des Moines. Perhaps things are evening out now in the Midwest with regards to snowfall. MSP must have close to 40" on the season, already, and the parade of SW flow and lakes cutter storms hasn't even begun.

Thats interesting Nate-- are warm neutral worse for us than cold neutral years are?

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah definitely much better. We need it to take a much more amplified, and slower track, for this to bomb and not head OTS. Nice trend though, but GFS is almost perfect with what we have to work with, and the NAM will have to improve a lot to get to the 0Z GFS.

I guess that means we all stay up for the 6z GFS lol

[tombo82685]

im curious to see the indiv srefs. Their deff have to be some more hits compared to 21z to move the .1 line that far west.

[forkyfork]

model trend page: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/greenstein/nam06t500.htm

go to the latest panel, and move the mouse down and up

[baroclinic_instability]

model trend page: http://www.atmos.alb...n/nam06t500.htm

go to the latest panel, and move the mouse down and up

Nice link! Thanks. I always just have to pull up two windows, but this is nice.

[earthlight]

Closed off at 60 hrs with an absolute powder keg at H5...nobody along the coast is out of the game yet.

[tombo82685]

model trend page: http://www.atmos.alb...n/nam06t500.htm

go to the latest panel, and move the mouse down and up

wow, thats pretty cool...Do you have the map for the 3z srefs tracks like you did for the 21z?

[earthlight]

[baroclinic_instability]

The NAM has a ridiculous and compact low level circulation.