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Western PA/Pittsburgh Summer Discussion 2021


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4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Looks like it, will be interesting.  Although these numbers seem like nothing compared to the NW.

 

Just now, KPITSnow said:

We would really have a hard time ever getting that hot unless the gulf dried up 

From a variability perspective, I really don’t see how we would break our all time heat record by 9 degrees in one go. But now the thought that we could see 105 or 106 one day doesn’t seem too far fetched.

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35 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

 

From a variability perspective, I really don’t see how we would break our all time heat record by 9 degrees in one go. But now the thought that we could see 105 or 106 one day doesn’t seem too far fetched.

Yeah, that's what I was saying earlier, that type of situation is not out of the realm of possibility.  While I wouldn't think 110 is in play (which is just too much), 105-107 could be on the table in the future.

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2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, that's what I was saying earlier, that type of situation is not out of the realm of possibility.  While I wouldn't think 110 is in play (which is just too much), 105-107 could be on the table in the future.

Contrast that with the fact that we’ve only hit 97 in one of the past 25 years. Part of me thinks we’ve just been lucky (or unlucky if you want heat).

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11 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Contrast that with the fact that we’ve only hit 97 in one of the past 25 years. Part of me thinks we’ve just been lucky (or unlucky if you want heat).

It's been rather weird, as the data says our highs are getting higher, but our yearly maxes do not seem to be.  Obviously that is showing there is an increase in our humidity over the past few decades, it is still weird that the gap between average high and highest high is shrinking.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

the gap between average high and highest high is shrinking

Higher lows likely because of the increased moisture means air temp can only go as low as the dew point.  Higher dew points mean we can't cool our bodies very well which is a real burden for those without AC/cooling to bear

The NW is getting the heat because the high pressure is north of them, they are in quadrants 3/4 if you bisected the high, and the clockwise flow means adiabatic heating as the pressure pushes and compresses the sinking air coming from higher elevations, heating it in the process.  The Bermuda high and SE ridge clockwise flow put us in quadrant II, sometimes I, so our air is mostly humid heat that pools against the slopes of the Appalachian ridges.  If there were a high pressure north of us in Canada, we might be in a position to see some high temps.

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17 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Weather app has KPIT at 90...12:41pm.

There’s your answer. KPIT was at 88 at 12:51pm, so the accuracy of the iOS weather app is questionable (as we probably already suspected), though I will say it does one of those Fahrenheit to Celsius to Fahrenheit things where 89 displays as 90.

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26 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

There’s your answer. KPIT was at 88 at 12:51pm, so the accuracy of the iOS weather app is questionable (as we probably already suspected), though I will say it does one of those Fahrenheit to Celsius to Fahrenheit things where 89 displays as 90.

Well, it is usually spot on with the high temperatures.  It runs a little ahead of the official updates, but showed the correct temperatures yesterday.

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39 minutes ago, north pgh said:

My station is reporting 93. I don't know how accurate but my dewpoint says 74 and heat index is 103. 

I am looking forward to some thunder tomorrow and 70's later this week.

Possibly pretty good on the dew point, official observation was 70.

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9 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

This weather is brutal. Who in the world enjoys this?

A fair number of people who follow NWS Pittsburgh on Facebook seem to enjoy this. The trick is to sink tens of thousands of dollars into a pool in your backyard, I think.

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21 minutes ago, PghPirates27 said:

Rain today? Keeps changing every time I check it.

Slight risk was expanded SW on the 13z SPC update to include most of PBZ forecast area.

From SPC discussion: 

“Tropospheric flow fields will be progressively weaker with west-southwest extent across the region, yielding a transition from multicells to pulse modes. Nevertheless, moderate buoyancy is expected south of ongoing convection. With scattered to widespread thunderstorm coverage, damaging winds due to wet microbursts are anticipated this afternoon. The transition from weakly organized to disorganized activity should occur in the Upper OH Valley vicinity.”

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7 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Slight risk was expanded SW on the 13z SPC update to include most of PBZ forecast area.

From SPC discussion: 

“Tropospheric flow fields will be progressively weaker with west-southwest extent across the region, yielding a transition from multicells to pulse modes. Nevertheless, moderate buoyancy is expected south of ongoing convection. With scattered to widespread thunderstorm coverage, damaging winds due to wet microbursts are anticipated this afternoon. The transition from weakly organized to disorganized activity should occur in the Upper OH Valley vicinity.”

In layman's terms, is that saying we have a chance at severe storms, but likely weak and disorganized storms for us?

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6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

In layman's terms, is that saying we have a chance at severe storms, but likely weak and disorganized storms for us?

PBZ’s discussion says there’s a cap but as the front slides closer that will erode the cap and trigger storms. They’re focusing on the area just south of I-80, so it sounds like the better chance of thunderstorms, some severe, would be north. I’m thinking disorganized for sure, might not be a QLCS (squall line) like the last event.

I don’t know, I’m hardly an expert. Just kinda taught myself what some of these terms mean after living in the Midwest for 7 years.

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36 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I mean you seem to think anything under 80 is cold. Last week when it was 68 and gorgeous you called it “disgusting” lol.

In the summer yeah, in March no.  I like seasons, so sue me, lol.  But, if it's July, 65 and pouring rain that's unappealing to me, just as 92 and humid is to you.  Again to each their own.

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