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Severe Weather May 26th- 28th 2021


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I went for a Hail Mary with targeting the Fort Stockton area of SW Texas today. I figured Oklahoma would be slop with mega chaser convergence anyway.

A supercell near Sanderson produced hail up to 2.0” and there were a few photo opportunities before and after that. 

 

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Chased around Stroud, OK, all the way over to Henryetta, OK yesterday. Not a single tornado warning, and only the occasional area of rotation that was almost impossible to predict and chase due to the nature of the storms...

I did find out after the fact there was a confirmed tornado on the ground in Raiford, OK to the SE of Henryetta, shortly after I called it quits and passed not 20 min from there before hand. If I had a crystal ball I could have been there, but who knows if I would have even seen it in that terrain and HP.

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Adding the 28th 

Latest outlook for today shows an upgrade to enhanced 

 

5 % tor

30 % hatched sig hail

 

day1otlk_1630.gif

 

 

day1probotlk_1630_hail.gif

 

 

 

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms with very large hail, damaging winds,
   and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of west and central
   Texas into eastern New Mexico, mainly this afternoon and evening.

   ...TX...
   A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is in place today
   across much of central and southwest TX, with dewpoints in the mid
   60s to lower 70s, pockets of strong heating, and very steep
   mid-level lapse rates.  Forecast soundings across the region show
   afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and little cap.  This
   should result in the development of scattered intense supercells
   along the various boundaries analyzed over this area and along the
   dryline over southeast NM and southwest TX.  Deep layer shear will
   favor rotating storms, and straight-line hodographs suggest
   left-moving supercells will also occur.  Damaging winds and a few
   tornadoes are possible.  However, the primary threat appears to be
   very large hail.  Therefore, have opted to add an ENH risk area and
   a 30%/sig hail probability area.  Storms should maintain severe
   threat through much of the evening as they spread southeastward
   toward central TX, with an increasing risk of bowing structures and
   damaging winds.

   ...LA/MS to VA/MD...
   A large upper trough is moving across the MS/OH valleys, with
   relatively strong westerly flow aloft over much of the TN Valley,
   Appalachians, and Mid Atlantic region.  Considerable cloud cover is
   limiting heating over many areas, but there appears to be a corridor
   from southern MS into parts of NC/VA where at least pockets of
   heating/destabilization will occur.  Scattered afternoon showers and
   thunderstorms are expected across this entire region, with the
   potential for robust updrafts/downdrafts in those areas of slightly
   better CAPE.  The area of most concern is in vicinity of a the
   Chesapeake Bay where backed low level winds and ample moisture are
   present.  This area is very small, with inconsistent CAM solutions
   on coverage of storms, but there is some concern for a more
   organized storm or two late this afternoon in the region posing a
   risk of gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up.

   ...MT...
   A few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
   evening over southeast MT along a cold front moving into the area. 
   Instability will be quite weak, but there is the potential of a
   strong storm or two producing hail and gusty winds.
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Surface-based CAPE is up to 3000-5000 J/kg from the Big Bend National Park up to Midland/Odessa. That's very high for any time of the year, and it is typical to have isolated 3" hail reports in this sort of scenario.

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