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2021-2022 ENSO


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We've had some Modoki La Nina looks in winter as of late, but it's been a fairly rare look in the Summer. Will be curious to see if we can retain the warmth by Peru and keep the cold to the West.

Summer 1986/1998/2008/2011 is kind of the right idea for what I expect for Summer SSTs. Not a super common look in the past 40 years.

Screenshot-2022-03-30-6-14-41-PM

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51 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

I bet some of the top La Nina analogs have this pattern 4/15-16 (-PNA)

f384 (2).gif

111967887_f372(1).thumb.gif.16d69cbd1d25f06275205dce5c1f091c.gif

Looks :twister:-y. One thing I've learned over the past few years, La Nina alone isn't enough.

Gotta stop putting off that pre-chase season work on my car. 3/5 caught me unprepared.

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Solar activity has increased quite a bit in recent months. I annualize it to July-June. Since July, the average over 40 sunspots/month. March was over 75 sunspots for the month. If we finish at 55 sunspots for July-June, it's the first year I would consider to be "not" low-solar since 2015-16, when there were 55. Since the 1700s, annualized mean is 85 sunspots/year via SILSO, but when I run statistical tests, blocking and other features are more likely to show up below 55 sunspots annually.

Albuquerque had 3.7 inches of snow in March. Historically, three inches of snow, or more, in March is a ~30% occurrence in high-solar and a ~3%  occurrence in low-solar (<55 sunspots annualized). So I'm inclined to think we will finish over 55 for the year.

For what it's worth, the Euro thinks a third-year La Nina is horse-shit. It's probably due to be right again at some point?

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I like dry air, but these -10 to -20 dew points (F) with constant fierce wind this April are really getting on my nerves, especially after an excellent March for snow. Any real weather down here in Spring ends up killing a lot of people anyway via the blizzard and tornado outbreaks that follow downwind too.

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7C for the week centered around April 13th. That is the coldest anomaly for that timeframe since weekly records were kept beginning in 1982. The prior mark was -1.4C in 1994.

I feel like we are going strongly toward El Nino (climo stats), this is a pretty strong opposite push, --/+

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7C for the week centered around April 13th. That is the coldest anomaly for that timeframe since weekly records were kept beginning in 1982. The prior mark was -1.4C in 1994.

You've got to be kidding me...so what are lookin' at? 3 dang la ninas in a row? Smh

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15 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

73-74, 74-75, 75-76, Strong on the backend. 74-75 was big +PNA in that 3-year cycle, and 00-01 was big +PNA In that 3-year cycle. 2/2 had a strong +PNA Winter in 1 of the 3 years. 

Not bad range of outcomes there....modoki el nino, or +PNA la nina.....

'00-'01, or '02-'03, take your pick :weenie:

Either is fine with me, with a slight nod to the former.

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2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Unfortunately, we have +QBO upcoming, which with a La Nina will be a disaster, but an El Nino this year in deep -QBO would have been great I think, (09-10)

There aren't any absolutes with respect to the QBO....its just a factor. Last season was a negative QBO with an eastern biased la nina, which was favorable for blocking, theoretically speaking.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last season was a negative QBO with an eastern biased la nina, which was favorable for blocking, theoretically speaking.

It evens out, it was a slightly -NAO Winter. positive QBO and La Nina have been some of our worst Winter's by a lot. 10mb vortex is like -1000dm mean. Going to be hard to get a -NAO next Winter if there is La Nina I think. It's like 65%/35 +NAO in +QBO/Nina vs 65%/35 -NAO in -QBO/Nino, 10mb vortex is strongest correlator. 

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16 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

 

It evens out, it was a slightly -NAO Winter. positive QBO and La Nina have been some of our worst Winter's by a lot. 10mb vortex is like -1000dm mean. Going to be hard to get a -NAO next Winter if there is La Nina I think. It's like 65%/35 +NAO in +QBO/Nina vs 65%/35 -NAO in -QBO/Nino, 10mb vortex is strongest correlator. 

How do you get a -NAO winter out of this?

Dec 2021: 0.29
 Jan 2022: 1.08   Feb: 1.68   March: 0.77

What am I missing?

Also, you seem to be shifting the emphasis from a crap winter, to merely a positive NAO....maybe biased by your geography....but here in New England, we don't necessarily need a negative NAO in a la nina to do just fine. 1975-1976 and 2008-2009 are a couple of examples...both +QBO, as well.

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