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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Nah it's got  <  an in for almost everyone outside SW VA.

It definitely has a bit more moisture then 0z last run and its similar to Nam and Rgem with mid 30s in many locals by 0z before precip rolls in overnight.  The trend the past 5 weeks with systems  has been colder at the surface and juicing inside 84 hours then dry out a bit only to juice back up at game time.  That's my observations since late January. 

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6 minutes ago, mattie g said:

How's the cold air looking leading in?

We know Friday's highs are 40s leading up . That's on all guidance but most guidance has decent dews and surface starting to drop in mid 30s before precip arrives overnight which brings up another positive.  Its overnight ...you have to like that in our corner . Also seasonal trends . 

If things juice up a bit that will only help the column including the surface in future runs .Or it could go poof 

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16 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Sure, if you like partly cloudy with a high of 50. Well, according to my point and click. It's been deadly accurate this season lol

It would take timing and spacing  but there is confluence up over the NE.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_29.png

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29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’ll be number 30. Book it

I went out for a run with a tshirt.  Warm breeze, birds chirping, kids playing outside, even broke a sweat. It was pure torture.  Let’s do this.  

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
23 minutes ago, Yeoman said:
If that represents number of flakes it should be spot on

Are you trolling?

Control run is weenie wet dream garbage- when it shows something "good". And it really doesn't for any place that matters lol.

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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I can't believe people are so skeptical of snow and it isn't even March yet. This doesn't look like anything flashy but the trends are good. Are we turning away nickel and dime events?

tropical climates like ours don't get snow in March.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I can't believe people are so skeptical of snow and it isn't even March yet. This doesn't look like anything flashy but the trends are good. Are we turning away nickel and dime events?

The pattern is a mild one. Pretty much straight up crap over the next several days. Realistically, outside of some mangled flakes mixed in with some rain for NW areas, there is no significant winter weather in the offing for at least another week.

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