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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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22 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Today is the start of Spring.. no going back.

I knew it standing outside today in the flurries.. today is the start of Spring. 

Not sure if you knew this but you make this process of tracking winter fails less fun...if that’s possible. 

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30 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said:

very good read

 

Friday Funny: nature makes a mockery of month-ahead model forecasts.

 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/02/19/friday-funny-nature-makes-a-mockery-of-month-ahead-model-forecasts/

Please do not post this without cross-checking its sources. While short-range climate forecasts possess lower (but positive!) skill, trying to equivocate these with GCMs is a faulty argument on several levels and requires a rebutting that would derail this thread.

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4 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure if you knew this but you make this process of tracking winter fails less fun...if that’s possible. 

embrace the warmth - with vaccines ramping up, the warmth coming.. this might be one of the most amazing summers in our country's history.  can you even imagine all the pent up demand just to do stuff with other people?

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48 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
ICON = ICANDY

Gfs=Shortwave shredder

given the seasonal trend...that is very likely how this ends.  All our storms that took a favorable track (and yea they did it just ended up too warm anyways) started out as cutters at this range and trended south to the point they tracked under us...then ended up too warm anyways but still...  Past results do NOT guarantee anything and trends can change anytime...but seasonal trend would argue this gets shredded and suppressed if its already showing as such at this range.  

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10 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

There are 3 waves in close proximity from Thursday to Monday next week. They will all influence each other. I have no confidence in any solution but there is a decent chance one clips us. It wouldn’t shock me if it ends up the 3rd one that right now looks like an amped up cutter given seasonal trends. 

monday.thumb.png.ba8abf7065c8dcd2368972cf0d28e4eb.png

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

given the seasonal trend...that is very likely how this ends.  All our storms that took a favorable track (and yea they did it just ended up too warm anyways) started out as cutters at this range and trended south to the point they tracked under us...then ended up too warm anyways but still...  Past results do NOT guarantee anything and trends can change anytime...but seasonal trend would argue this gets shredded and suppressed if its already showing as such at this range.  

0z EPS is a sheared out suppressed wave. Then the suppressive NS energy moves out, east coast ridges, while the trough digs out west. The next wave looks healthy, but warm. Still time for it to trend better I suppose, but the currently advertised look up top says not likely. 

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10 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

embrace the warmth - with vaccines ramping up, the warmth coming.. this might be one of the most amazing summers in our country's history.  can you even imagine all the pent up demand just to do stuff with other people?

2021 has the potential to be one of the best years of my life. I'm hoping it's the year I get engaged.

As for the weather, March is looking really damn warm especially in the first week. If only last spring had that warmth when the lockdowns were just getting started...

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06z GFS ensembles are trying to build a -NAO at Days 14-15, but I think that is to counter the Polar Vortex setting up over Alaska and the Bering Straight. I have also seen this bias with the last few Stratosphere warmings in time, they build on long range models, but dampen in closer time. Despite all the data/statistics/analogs I have posted about a -NAO March, I think the 33month trend is going to rule here. 

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2 hours ago, Fozz said:

2021 has the potential to be one of the best years of my life. I'm hoping it's the year I get engaged.

As for the weather, March is looking really damn warm especially in the first week. If only last spring had that warmth when the lockdowns were just getting started...

Lol... que the 12z runs gfs/para and a persistent east coast trough with a building -NAO. Wouldn’t bet against March blocking this year given the seasonal trends (really going back to last fall).

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