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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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17 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Spot on. But W and N of Philly have done very well this year. 

So have W and N of DC...look at Winchester and my area!  It's just the snowfall climo changes more radically over a slightly shorter distance in and around Philly...you have to go a bit further NW of DC and Baltimore to get the same effect but its there...I have had 45" and there is a HUGE cutoff just to my southeast...same as through the Philly area.  But I am doing better then Philly and on par with the NW philly burbs...as is climo.  

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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yes

Well, when it did, it was working well.  Im taking it out of the shop and fixed it up.  I'm now taking tickets to Disillusioned Land.  It's a utopian society where no more footballs from Lucy appears and we await the great Spring Thaw. 

Any takers?  No more heartbreak.  No more pain.  Join me.

I’ll get on board once you tune it up to remove negative thoughts. If you’re serious about this week then let’s go. If you’re only interested in spring then I hope this is the result 679C5179-DD2B-449C-83A1-2465803CD343.thumb.jpeg.57e06adf0bafe437df21b55acb38216b.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll get on board once you tune it up to remove negative thoughts. If you’re serious about this week then let’s go. If you’re only interested in spring then I hope this is the result 679C5179-DD2B-449C-83A1-2465803CD343.thumb.jpeg.57e06adf0bafe437df21b55acb38216b.jpeg

Of course I'm not "interested' in spring, but it's inevitable.  I want more snow, but I'm just jaded man.  WE got screwed every time with these storms.   At some point you just get tired of that. No more fools gold

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So have W and N of DC...look at Winchester and my area!  It's just the snowfall climo changes more radically over a slightly shorter distance in and around Philly...you have to go a bit further NW of DC and Baltimore to get the same effect but its there...I have had 45" and there is a HUGE cutoff just to my southeast...same as through the Philly area.  But I am doing better then Philly and on par with the NW philly burbs...as is climo.  

The gradient is quite stark even closer in. I’m in west Rockville and we had had probably 15-16 inches snow sleet with at least partial snow cover since late Jan.. IAD is 11.8 I think but DCA is still under 6! 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So have W and N of DC...look at Winchester and my area!  It's just the snowfall climo changes more radically over a slightly shorter distance in and around Philly...you have to go a bit further NW of DC and Baltimore to get the same effect but its there...I have had 45" and there is a HUGE cutoff just to my southeast...same as through the Philly area.  But I am doing better then Philly and on par with the NW philly burbs...as is climo.  

Agree. But even given that dynamic, the disparity between DC and suburbs vs Philly and suburbs is even more dramatic this year. 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Of course I'm not "interested' in spring, but it's inevitable.  I want more snow, but I'm just jaded man.  WE got screwed every time with these storms.   At some point you just get tired of that. No more fools gold

This is happening. We are destined. Get on the train for a while. Once you’ve recovered and are back to normal, you can crank up the bus and we will pile on it.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM keeps the Monday hope alive

Doesn't help that NAM has the onset directly at 1PM. Compare the simulated radar for the NAM vs GFS, that 6 hour difference changes a lot.

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13 minutes ago, weatherjedi said:

The gradient is quite stark even closer in. I’m in west Rockville and we had had probably 15-16 inches snow sleet with at least partial snow cover since late Jan.. IAD is 11.8 I think but DCA is still under 6! 

IAD is really at 11.1?  Doesn't feel like it here, and I am not far away.

Winchester to psuhoffman may be doing well this year, but usually that line is more Manassas to Westminster.  It seems like the line of non-suckage is more further NW than in normal years.

 

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Doesn't help that NAM has the onset directly at 1PM. Compare the simulated radar for the NAM vs GFS, that 6 hour difference changes a lot.

Possibly. But the NAM has below freezing temps even at 1pm

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

DC beat Philly in 2019 and both had barely any snow in 2020. Philly will win this year. But it’s not as lopsided as perception. Thing is when DC/Balt misses to the north they often assume everyone north of them did great when often the north trend screwed Philly some too. They may have done marginally better but not as good as people in here think.  Then when we beat Philly like in several storms in 2010 and 2014 and 2015 and 2016 and 2019 people don’t even notice.  I grew up 15 miles from Philly in S NJ. My climo was same as south Philly and I was about 10 miles due east of the airport and my totals almost always matched Philly Int. Where I lived in N VA near Herndon was better for snow. Trust me.  Philly was better then downtown DC though. Kind of on par with the DC NW burbs. But there is this perception Philly climo is way better and like mine up here. It isn’t. I spent 15 years there complaint the same way people here do when 9/10 storms screwed me over and I got 1” slop to rain while 20 miles NW was getting 4-8” or more. Same thing. 

Second this.  I've been in NoVA for 30 years and Loudoun has historically done better than Philly.  Not so much NW of Philly, that would be more like Winchester, but certainly better than downtown.

 

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Wow 45 inches total in Manchester?  That's incredible.  Here are the airport numbers for comparison:

DCA:  5.3 (most in one day 2.3)

Dulles:  11.8 (most in one day 3.0)

BWI:  10.0 (most in one day 3.8)

DCA has a grand total of three days of max 32 or below, and all three were 31 or 32.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Suit yourself. But as time goes on, ticket prices go up. And seating becomes limited. You might find yourself sharing a sleeper car with Ji

Tracker will allow Ji to look out the window when it starts to sleet!

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6 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Wow 45 inches total in Manchester?  That's incredible.  Here are the airport numbers for comparison:

DCA:  5.3 (most in one day 2.3)

Dulles:  11.8 (most in one day 3.0)

BWI:  10.0 (most in one day 3.8)

DCA has a grand total of three days of max 32 or below, and all three were 31 or 32.

DCA still hasn't gotten below 23 since 2019.  It's a bona fide gulf coast climate at night. 

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This looks decent. 18z ICON...The airmass isn't good leading up to that period. What allows for some of the models to show the event is the trough goes positive so some energy scoots ahead & dampens heights (building HP behind it). Need the right balance where enough goes ahead to build in cold while leaving enough behind to form the storm. If too much energy turns the corner it's just a rain event. 

icon1.png

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If anyone is headed EB Bay Bridge ice is falling into cars one person hit and traffic is mega backed up

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4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I don't really agree with this. I think you are overinflated that 27 inches on the Northeast ends. No doubt it might be more give or take here or there. But its not a 15/27. More along the lines of a 18/22 ish. Averages are REALLY hard to nail down. They can be skewed and subject to change. Miller A's yes, Northeast zones will do better probably. But that can be balanced out by a southern storm (when they use to happen). Or a storm like Jan 2000 that dry slotted the northeast. Even today could be an example of where the Northeast Part of that zone has a warm nose, and we don't down here.

Look at the original NWS forecast for yesterday's storm. Look where the precip is laid out. Its oriented exactly as I have laid out and you could continue that on down the corridor if you looked at LMX. This happened with every single storm this year. Where it looked even. Look Freehold 6, Wilmington 6. Results? Freehold 10 inches of snow, Wilmington 1/2 of sleet.

This isn't a "climo says otherwise". This is 100% a, we had horrible luck this year.

 

 

 

 

IMG_6828.jpg

I don't agree.  The reason Freehold got 10" yesterday was prolific rates of precip.  It snowed there but at slower rates would have been sleet like Wilmington or my home well NW of Freehold where I got 3.5".  That area of NJ around Freehold and east (Monmouth cty) gets more and heavy precip in a number of winter storm set ups.  That's climo too.

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19 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I don't really agree with this. I think you are overinflated that 27 inches on the Northeast ends. No doubt it might be more give or take here or there. But its not a 15/27. More along the lines of a 18/22 ish. Averages are REALLY hard to nail down. They can be skewed and subject to change. Miller A's yes, Northeast zones will do better probably. But that can be balanced out by a southern storm (when they use to happen). Or a storm like Jan 2000 that dry slotted the northeast. Even today could be an example of where the Northeast Part of that zone has a warm nose, and we don't down here.

Look at the original NWS forecast for yesterday's storm. Look where the precip is laid out. Its oriented exactly as I have laid out and you could continue that on down the corridor if you looked at LWX. This happened with every single storm this year. Where it looked even. Look Freehold 6, Wilmington 6. Results? Freehold 10 inches of snow, Wilmington 1/2 of sleet.

This isn't a "climo says otherwise". This is 100% a, we had horrible luck this year.

 

 

 

 

IMG_6828.jpg

Look at the map edited. I didn’t pull those lines out my arse. I traced the actual averages based on reporting stations. I’m not sure how you argue what the averages actually are? 

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34 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I don't really agree with this. I think you are overinflated that 27 inches on the Northeast ends. No doubt it might be more give or take here or there. But its not a 15/27. More along the lines of a 18/22 ish. Averages are REALLY hard to nail down. They can be skewed and subject to change. Miller A's yes, Northeast zones will do better probably. But that can be balanced out by a southern storm (when they use to happen). Or a storm like Jan 2000 that dry slotted the northeast. Even today could be an example of where the Northeast Part of that zone has a warm nose, and we don't down here.

Look at the original NWS forecast for yesterday's storm. Look where the precip is laid out. Its oriented exactly as I have laid out and you could continue that on down the corridor if you looked at LWX. This happened with every single storm this year. Where it looked even. Look Freehold 6, Wilmington 6. Results? Freehold 10 inches of snow, Wilmington 1/2 of sleet.

This isn't a "climo says otherwise". This is 100% a, we had horrible luck this year.

 

 

 

 

IMG_6828.jpg

Take your 'confusion' of basic MA snow climo to banter, along with anyone who wants to bash their head against a wall in a futile attempt to help you figure it out. Spare the rest of us. This shit got old like 3 winters ago. 

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1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Wow 45 inches total in Manchester?  That's incredible.  Here are the airport numbers for comparison:

DCA:  5.3 (most in one day 2.3)

Dulles:  11.8 (most in one day 3.0)

BWI:  10.0 (most in one day 3.8)

DCA has a grand total of three days of max 32 or below, and all three were 31 or 32.

DCA over the last several year has had trouble going below 32 

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2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

DCA still hasn't gotten below 23 since 2019.  It's a bona fide gulf coast climate at night. 

And it still may not this weekend: LWX hourly charts estimate lows of about 23-24 before reheating.

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