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Texas Winter 2021


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We may well have THE winter storm in Texas history upon us with widespread heavy snow and most of the state below zero the following morning. This is preceded by a major icing event in North Texas tonight and a light event Saturday. Then followed by more frozen precip later next week. 

I hope people statewide are preparing for what could be a devestating event which could cause major disruptions to infastructure. Travel may be impossible for some in North Texas from tonight through late next week. I sure hope there are not widespread power outages tonight as that would greatly exacerbate an already dangerous situation.

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It’s too early for me to celebrate after the near misses these past 5 years but the models are staring to show some alignment. I’ll feel much more confident once we are in high res model range. 60 hours for the nam3k, right?

Still dry here, no mist or fog at all this morning.

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23 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

I consider major being 0.25". That's enough to make travel impossible and to cause power issues.

I don't see us getting that much ice at DFW yet. If this were the case the National Weather Service would already be issuing a Winter Storm Warning or Ice Storm Warning, so far the majority of forecasters think amounts will be lighter than that. Based on what I have seen I tend to agree.

26 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

I personally don't see this actually. I mean my standard of major ice event would be Dec 2013. I'm not seeing that happen tonight at least for DFW. Thought? :P

No we will not be seeing the ice storm December 2013 tonight.

15 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Monday is perfection for a Texas snow storm. Western Gulf surface low, 1040s Plains surface high, TPV over Midwest, negative tilting shortwave and a Siberian air mass at the surface. 

The GFS is blatantly absurd this morning for its predictions next week. I personally think the eventual track of the system will be much further south limiting accumulations this far north given past experience with this type of deep cold air setup. Please study the December 1983 outbreak. So while we may get snow in DFW, I don't think, at least yet, the GFS is depicting anything that will actually verify. I will have to see a lot more runs that show this before climbing on board such a record breaking event. The fact that it would snow in significant amounts with temperatures below 15°F at DFW is a record in of itself. Many ensemble members of the Canadian, ECMWF, and GFS are actually quite dry.  Let's not loose our heads yet! 

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I don't consider it hype when it is less than 150 hours out with great consensus among among all major models and their ensembles. Tonight will depend on if the heaviest precip falls in areas with 31 or 28 degrees temps. If >.5 QPF falls in DFW then accumulations of ice of .25 are likely. If this heavy precip is more towards Terrell and Canton then it will have a harder time accreting efficiently.

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NWS FWD updated and expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include parts of central Texas, and goes until 3 PM tomorrow.

1230 PM CST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain. Additional ice accumulations of up to one
  quarter of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of North-Central, Central, and Northeast
  Texas.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads, and bridges are
  possible. The hazardous conditions could impact Thursday
  morning's commute, and poor conditions may persist into the
  afternoon.
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I'm going to assume you can broadly brush these heavy snow areas together on the WPC's new Day 3-7 outlook? I don't see any reason for them to be implying a Dallas county sliver of a snow hole :axe:

Obviously still several days away so they will likely shift those areas more. 18z GFS still bringing >6" of snow for the metroplex. I'm trying very hard to restrain myself from jumping onto the hype train here.

 

cpc3-7outlook2-10-21.png

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36 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

I'm going to assume you can broadly brush these heavy snow areas together on the WPC's new Day 3-7 outlook? I don't see any reason for them to be implying a Dallas county sliver of a snow hole :axe:

Obviously still several days away so they will likely shift those areas more. 18z GFS still bringing >6" of snow for the metroplex. I'm trying very hard to restrain myself from jumping onto the hype train here.

 

cpc3-7outlook2-10-21.png

Dollars to donuts this is what ends up happening

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Segment from FWD's new long-term AFD:

The freezer door will then be propped open on Sunday as mid level
ridging amplifies over the Northwest U.S. and our polar low over
Southern Canada pivots eastward allowing a chunk of arctic air to
spread southward through the Plains. A 1050 mb high will surge
southward behind a strong cold front but ahead of a compact
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest U.S. This will set the
stage for some exceptionally cold air to spread into North Texas
over the latter half of the weekend into early next week. We`re
becoming increasingly concerned for a prolonged cold spell with
actual air temperatures falling into the single digits to near 0
across parts of the region by Monday. While the GFS is currently
the coldest guidance, other global guidance and ensemble members
indicate 850 mb temps falling into the -12 to -17 degree range
which would be in the coldest 10% of temperatures in our observed
sounding data. In addition, a pool of moisture will reside across
much of East Texas and should quickly surge northwestward into the
region as strong forcing overspreads North Texas late Sunday into
Monday. With column temperatures as cold as currently forecast,
widespread moderate to heavy snow would be expected to develop as
the shortwave spreads across the Southern Plains. The current
forecast will reflect these trends with all snow by late Sunday
night and continuing into Monday. While it`s a little early to pin
down exact accumulations, as of now, it appears that widespread
snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over a large
area of the region. Column temperatures would be cold enough to
support higher snowfall ratios than we typically see which could
result in significantly heaftier snow totals. North winds 15 to 25
mph could also result in significant reductions to visibility
during the snow. This will be a fast moving system, but definitely
has the potential for significant impacts to travel and
infrastructure across the region. Extremely cold weather will
continue into the middle of next week.

It should be stressed that this bout of extreme cold may have
significant impact to infrastructure over the latter part of the
weekend into early next week. Exposed pipes are likely to burst in
the prolonged cold. Preparations should be made now to protect
exposed pipes or other infrastructure sensitive to the cold. Plans
should be made for pets and people.

While significant snow is forecast for Monday, the extreme cold
and wind will make travel dangerous and snow clearing operations
much more difficult. The snowpack is likely to linger and become
compacted further complicating the clearing efforts.

Dunn
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Just above freezing here with a thunderstorm ongoing. 

Hi Res models showing spotty 1" QPF in sub freezing air through lunchtime tomorrow from the Hill Country to NE TX. Temps in these areas look to be 29-32 so accretion rates will not be super efficient. Still I could see areas of >.25" of ice develop, but not sure they will be widespread enough to justify any ISWs. Most will see <0.1" of ice. Anyone NW of a Austin to Texarkana line needs to be cautious driving tonight and tomorrow morning.

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12 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

We may well have THE winter storm in Texas history upon us with widespread heavy snow and most of the state below zero the following morning. This is preceded by a major icing event in North Texas tonight and a light event Saturday. Then followed by more frozen precip later next week. 

I hope people statewide are preparing for what could be a devestating event which could cause major disruptions to infastructure. Travel may be impossible for some in North Texas from tonight through late next week. I sure hope there are not widespread power outages tonight as that would greatly exacerbate an already dangerous situation.

Um, no.  I'm certain that Galveston Bay will not freeze over.

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40 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Well unless the bridges are really bad it does not exactly seem to be STORM OF THE CENTURY OMG here by the airport. If anything it's bone dry. The whole cold snap is increasingly looming like (yet another) hill country/central TX event precip-wise

Haha, today was never supposed to be a big event but it has turned in an impactful one already with numerous accidents and multiple fatalities along with widespread school delays. I hope everyone stays safe today and stay home if possible. "The storm of the century" (comparable to 1895, 1899, 1977, 1983, 1989, 1996 and 2011) is for the the next 7-10 days combined considering it will be one of the longest stretches of sub freezing temps with some areas of N and NE TX set to see >200 hours below freezing, all time record lows possible, and multiple impactful winter precip events.

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