wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Going to be hard to predict the snowfall off Ontario lol I don't think the band stays put for more than an hour or two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Going to be hard to predict the snowfall off Ontario lol I don't think the band stays put for more than an hour or two... Yeah and the Erie band northern edge flirts with my area...hopefully 5 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Let's see which model does the best RGEM NAM 3k NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 GEM Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 55 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I’m literally right on the edge...hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 55 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: How much did you receive last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 12z HRRR fwiw.. Has a strong band tomorrow morning east of Ontario..My forecast has gone from 7"-10"-16" and now back to 7" lol These WSW type events always put this area on the southern fringes.. Hrrr even has some NW flow as the storm is departing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 NMM is a pretty big hit as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 NSSL little north with the heaviest..But would still be solid verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Updated map with just Lake Effect now... Looks like it’s going to be a real close call for the metro and north now with this band...Very right northern snow gradient... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 And the ARW which sends a little love down towards freak/CNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Updated map with just Lake Effect now... Looks like it’s going to be a real close call for the metro and north now with this band...Very right northern snow gradient... Yeah same kind of situation here.. Within 10 miles it goes from 4"-6" to 12"-18" and I'm right in the middle of the cutoff zone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Icon has shown this for days which looks pretty similar to the RGEM just a little farther south with band placement.. Saturday morning and Saturday Evening/overnight look to be the best chance for this area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: How much did you receive last night? 6.8". Highest so far is 8" in Hamburg Snowfall totals: https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 31 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Updated map with just Lake Effect now... Looks like it’s going to be a real close call for the metro and north now with this band...Very right northern snow gradient... I’m still 8-12 but 6-8 is right near by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 What radar is everyone using now? I use Cod and Wunderground but does anyone have a good radar for entire great lakes? I always used NWS one for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 lake totals off of michigan have overperformed. ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SAINT JOSEPH 42.10N 86.49W 12/25/2020 M11.0 INCH BERRIEN MI TRAINED SPOTTER SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Gonna be a razor sharp northern cutoff on nearly every model now. TS were either just gonna get in or were just gonna miss.hopefully that 5 mile northward bump happens cause then we should be good otherwise we may be watching painfully as a few miles to our south gets another 1 foot + . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 European has been on the "westerly" bandwagon from the start.. Even has a more "northerly" flow at the end of the event like the HRRR.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 I added backyard nest cam to my signature so you can just click it to make it easier. I think RGEM does best with LES and see the band making it up to metro, northern suburbs will be close call but I still think they get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: Even has a more "northerly" flow at the end of the event like the HRRR.. I've been following the HRRR last few weeks, it might be the worst model out of all of them. I think the ICON might be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Gonna be a razor sharp northern cutoff on nearly every model now. TS were either just gonna get in or were just gonna miss.hopefully that 5 mile northward bump happens cause then we should be good otherwise we may be watching painfully as a few miles to our south gets another 1 foot + . Yeah...reminds me of ‘14 when we still lived in Cheektowaga and we’re about 2 miles north of the band both times...we lived off pine ridge at the time and if I went south 2 miles to William st it was another world. I’m hoping history doesn’t repeat itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 I think the NAM products are the worst but that's just my opinion lol Either way it will be a nowcast situation, GL to you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I added backyard nest cam to my signature so you can just click it easier. I think RGEM does best with LES and see the band making it up to metro, northern suburbs will be close call but I still think they get in on it. That would put us in the game D for a few hours at least which is why the 6-12 line is right there...3 to 4 hours of 2/hour rates makes that plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: I think the NAM products are the worst but that's just my opinion lol Either way it will be a nowcast situation, GL to you guys. The NAM is definitely bad. The 18Z runs yesterday featured no snow for WNY. Everyone got 4-8". Literally as the event was happening that model was way off.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 @wolfie09 What model did the best? I think the GFS did for globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 I honestly didn't follow it much for obvious reasons lol But I thought the GFS and european did pretty good.. Originally both models had several inches in CNY that never materialized but after that they did pretty good.. I also thought majority of the hi rez models did good with the cutoff.. Canadian and NAM products probably did the worst.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2020 Share Posted December 25, 2020 Here was the gfs and european from 24 hours out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 25, 2020 Author Share Posted December 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Here was the gfs and european from 24 hours out.. Those both did well, ratios were under 1:10 for this. Parts of NE Ohio got 10". The rain/snow line went through Genesee county all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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