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John1122

December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.

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Looks like the eastward jog has stopped with the 0z suit as the NAM and GFS have either similar tracks or are slightly west and/or stronger.   Time to start watching the one behind this for MBY.  Maybe our folks at elevation and middle TN can score some accumulating snow.

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10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like the eastward jog has stopped with the 0z suit as the NAM and GFS have either similar tracks or are slightly west and/or stronger.   Time to start watching the one behind this for MBY.  Maybe our folks at elevation and middle TN can score some accumulating snow.

The 12z Euro Control dropped the hammer with that wave. 

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Everything is pretty consistent across modeling with this one now. I'd say the MRX map looks pretty good.  Less than an inch below 3000 and 6+ at LeConte.  

For my area I'm going to go with 1/2-3/4ths inch on decks and car tops and a dusting on grassy areas as far as the ground goes depending on time of day. 

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I swear this has typical strong NINA sig all over it,we get the early cold and we will bake around X-Mas onwards.Nice cold spell tho in the long range showing up.

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z NOV29
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SUN 00Z 29-NOV                  44.9    35.9    01005                     72    
SUN 06Z 29-NOV  45.0    37.4    39.4    34.2    05003                     98    
SUN 12Z 29-NOV  39.7    36.6    37.1    34.8    11003   0.00    0.00      99    
SUN 18Z 29-NOV  56.2    37.0    56.5    43.3    18004   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 00Z 30-NOV  57.6    50.5    50.4    50.0    35004   0.17    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 30-NOV  50.4    41.9    41.8    41.5    34012   0.51    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 30-NOV  41.8    36.5    38.9    38.4    31011   0.49    0.03     100    
MON 18Z 30-NOV  39.0    35.5    35.7    24.6    30011   0.02    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 01-DEC  35.7    32.9    32.8    22.8    31009   0.02    0.02      94    
TUE 06Z 01-DEC  32.9    28.7    28.6    19.1    30006   0.02    0.02      25    
TUE 12Z 01-DEC  28.5    25.5    25.5    19.7    27006   0.00    0.00       2    
TUE 18Z 01-DEC  36.3    24.9    36.4    19.0    28007   0.00    0.00      11    
WED 00Z 02-DEC  38.7    31.6    31.4    20.5    27005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 02-DEC  31.5    26.0    25.9    19.8    27004   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 02-DEC  27.4    24.7    25.0    21.3    24002   0.00    0.00      30    
WED 18Z 02-DEC  44.7    24.4    45.0    25.7    30001   0.00    0.00      35    
THU 00Z 03-DEC  46.8    36.6    36.1    29.8    10004   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 06Z 03-DEC  36.1    27.8    27.9    23.7    15002   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 12Z 03-DEC  30.5    27.4    28.4    24.4    11004   0.00    0.00      69    
THU 18Z 03-DEC  50.7    28.4    51.0    29.3    17003   0.00    0.00      33    
FRI 00Z 04-DEC  53.0    44.4    44.7    35.0    18004   0.01    0.00      95    
FRI 06Z 04-DEC  46.5    43.0    43.3    40.9    20005   0.04    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 04-DEC  43.4    42.6    42.7    42.5    17002   0.20    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 04-DEC  44.8    42.7    44.8    43.9    24001   0.24    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 05-DEC  45.8    43.8    43.7    42.4    36003   0.02    0.00      98    
SAT 06Z 05-DEC  43.7    39.9    39.8    36.8    35007   0.00    0.00      94    
SAT 12Z 05-DEC  39.8    35.9    35.9    32.7    35007   0.00    0.00      86    
SAT 18Z 05-DEC  45.8    34.7    46.0    30.4    33008   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 00Z 06-DEC  47.9    39.6    39.4    30.7    33006   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 06Z 06-DEC  39.4    32.7    32.4    29.8    30004   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 12Z 06-DEC  32.4    30.2    31.1    28.9    22004   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 18Z 06-DEC  50.9    31.1    51.1    34.1    28007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 07-DEC  52.8    43.4    43.3    34.1    27007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 07-DEC  43.3    40.3    40.2    33.3    32008   0.00    0.00      40    
MON 12Z 07-DEC  40.2    34.5    34.5    23.0    32008   0.00    0.00      46    
MON 18Z 07-DEC  37.9    33.5    37.9    19.3    33010   0.00    0.00      16    
TUE 00Z 08-DEC  38.4    31.4    31.2    16.0    34006   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 06Z 08-DEC  31.2    25.4    25.3    17.7    33003   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 12Z 08-DEC  26.1    22.9    22.9    17.5    24003   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 08-DEC  37.4    22.8    37.6    15.2    19002   0.00    0.00      81    
WED 00Z 09-DEC  38.3    32.8    33.4    20.2    16005   0.00    0.00       5    



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Our system is well on its way this morning! 
 

everything looks right on track using the upper air WV loops. Going to be a beautiful phase later during this storms life.
the darker and light yellow dry air trough over the Dakotas is our northern stream energy. EB163653-45F9-4D8C-AA58-79F43B4E7996.jpeg.7243f84634523e7b417cfc07e0757588.jpeg
 

hoping for 1-2 inches here at 2000ft in Erwin! Small potential to bust higher than that I think in this setup.

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7 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I swear this has typical strong NINA sig all over it,we get the early cold and we will bake around X-Mas onwards.Nice cold spell tho in the long range showing up.

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z NOV29
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SUN 00Z 29-NOV                  44.9    35.9    01005                     72    
SUN 06Z 29-NOV  45.0    37.4    39.4    34.2    05003                     98    
SUN 12Z 29-NOV  39.7    36.6    37.1    34.8    11003   0.00    0.00      99    
SUN 18Z 29-NOV  56.2    37.0    56.5    43.3    18004   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 00Z 30-NOV  57.6    50.5    50.4    50.0    35004   0.17    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 30-NOV  50.4    41.9    41.8    41.5    34012   0.51    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 30-NOV  41.8    36.5    38.9    38.4    31011   0.49    0.03     100    
MON 18Z 30-NOV  39.0    35.5    35.7    24.6    30011   0.02    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 01-DEC  35.7    32.9    32.8    22.8    31009   0.02    0.02      94    
TUE 06Z 01-DEC  32.9    28.7    28.6    19.1    30006   0.02    0.02      25    
TUE 12Z 01-DEC  28.5    25.5    25.5    19.7    27006   0.00    0.00       2    
TUE 18Z 01-DEC  36.3    24.9    36.4    19.0    28007   0.00    0.00      11    
WED 00Z 02-DEC  38.7    31.6    31.4    20.5    27005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 02-DEC  31.5    26.0    25.9    19.8    27004   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 02-DEC  27.4    24.7    25.0    21.3    24002   0.00    0.00      30    
WED 18Z 02-DEC  44.7    24.4    45.0    25.7    30001   0.00    0.00      35    
THU 00Z 03-DEC  46.8    36.6    36.1    29.8    10004   0.00    0.00       0    
THU 06Z 03-DEC  36.1    27.8    27.9    23.7    15002   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 12Z 03-DEC  30.5    27.4    28.4    24.4    11004   0.00    0.00      69    
THU 18Z 03-DEC  50.7    28.4    51.0    29.3    17003   0.00    0.00      33    
FRI 00Z 04-DEC  53.0    44.4    44.7    35.0    18004   0.01    0.00      95    
FRI 06Z 04-DEC  46.5    43.0    43.3    40.9    20005   0.04    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 04-DEC  43.4    42.6    42.7    42.5    17002   0.20    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 04-DEC  44.8    42.7    44.8    43.9    24001   0.24    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 05-DEC  45.8    43.8    43.7    42.4    36003   0.02    0.00      98    
SAT 06Z 05-DEC  43.7    39.9    39.8    36.8    35007   0.00    0.00      94    
SAT 12Z 05-DEC  39.8    35.9    35.9    32.7    35007   0.00    0.00      86    
SAT 18Z 05-DEC  45.8    34.7    46.0    30.4    33008   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 00Z 06-DEC  47.9    39.6    39.4    30.7    33006   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 06Z 06-DEC  39.4    32.7    32.4    29.8    30004   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 12Z 06-DEC  32.4    30.2    31.1    28.9    22004   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 18Z 06-DEC  50.9    31.1    51.1    34.1    28007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 07-DEC  52.8    43.4    43.3    34.1    27007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 07-DEC  43.3    40.3    40.2    33.3    32008   0.00    0.00      40    
MON 12Z 07-DEC  40.2    34.5    34.5    23.0    32008   0.00    0.00      46    
MON 18Z 07-DEC  37.9    33.5    37.9    19.3    33010   0.00    0.00      16    
TUE 00Z 08-DEC  38.4    31.4    31.2    16.0    34006   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 06Z 08-DEC  31.2    25.4    25.3    17.7    33003   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 12Z 08-DEC  26.1    22.9    22.9    17.5    24003   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 08-DEC  37.4    22.8    37.6    15.2    19002   0.00    0.00      81    
WED 00Z 09-DEC  38.3    32.8    33.4    20.2    16005   0.00    0.00       5    


Yeah, however, there are  a couple drivers that may change the typical Nina pattern. The NPAC SST's,and the NAO . Of course we all know about 95-96 and 10-11. 

      Early on those years the same thing was touted. La Niña pattern will take over and we go mild.

         Odds ,as we all know, do favor the stereotypical Niña and pretty strong at that but, there is some hope; a couple things that can war against that. 

      Just some encouraging thoughts for the cold snow lovers.

Y

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Models slowly upping my snowfall toward 3-4 inches. Still wary of them as it’s tough to nail down the elevation influence but man this looks promising.

Cautiously optimistic. Although I’ve been burned on NW flow before. 

3FED8CC8-905B-4BB6-B4CB-B264AC237A67.thumb.png.7f880f7cbde10b616fe6eb4c2672139d.png

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Looking out in time a bit.  I really like the GFS extended that has been added to WxBell's model suite.  Basically it show the pattern degrade around mid-month, relax for about ten days, and then return....huge grain of salt at that range please.    Was looking at teleconnections this morning, the general gist is that the AO and NAO are going to be slightly negative with the EPO going slightly negative - all of that varies slightly depending on model and run.  Going to be interesting as the MJO has trended towards a warm(weak) phase look.  Is the MJO going to camp out in those phases or move quickly around and/or will weak(but favorable teleconnections) balance out any MJO mischief.  Makes me think that the base pattern will still have a Nina look, but that cold may well move eastward from time to time, and thus, give us some chances.  Lots of uncertainty right after Christmas as one might expect...but sort of we didn't expect uncertainty as I pretty much felt like January was going to be warm - not nearly as much of a certainty as once thought.

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12z GEFS d11-16 (5) day mean at 500 so TIFWIW.  I like the -EPO which is showing up.  We are going to need something to counter the upcoming MJO convection in warm phase regions(hoping it is low amplitude and fast if it goes into warm phases).  Definitely a possibility this pattern(shown below) retrogrades/trends into the West as the EPO slips a bit westward off the coast of western NA.  Scandinavian Ridge connecting ever so slightly with the EPO.  That should open up the gates for cold air to head into the Lower 48.  Huge caveat...this is basically what was shown during November that headed into the West - occurred twice.  The MJO is a thorn here, but there are times when we do overcome the unfavorable MJO phases with a pattern similar to this if memory serves me correctly.  Maybe the winter of 14-15?  One of those went through the warm tour and it stayed cold.  Anyway, just worth a look.  Everyone knows the rules about taking LR ensemble stuff as gospel.

836860726_ScreenShot2020-11-30at1_29_28PM.png.fbc807a7381fa5f6c594afc5137104ce.png

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28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GEFS d11-16 (5) day mean at 500 so TIFWIW.  I like the -EPO which is showing up.  We are going to need something to counter the upcoming MJO convection in warm phase regions(hoping it is low amplitude and fast if it goes into warm phases).  Definitely a possibility this pattern(shown below) retrogrades/trends into the West as the EPO slips a bit westward off the coast of western NA.  Scandinavian Ridge connecting ever so slightly with the EPO.  That should open up the gates for cold air to head into the Lower 48.  Huge caveat...this is basically what was shown during November that headed into the West - occurred twice.  The MJO is a thorn here, but there are times when we do overcome the unfavorable MJO phases with a pattern similar to this if memory serves me correctly.  Maybe the winter of 14-15?  One of those went through the warm tour and it stayed cold.  Anyway, just worth a look.  Everyone knows the rules about taking LR ensemble stuff as gospel.

836860726_ScreenShot2020-11-30at1_29_28PM.png.fbc807a7381fa5f6c594afc5137104ce.png

If we can get an EPO ridge where that one is depicted we tend to mute then MJO to a large extent. The EPO can he epic or stink though. It it's west based at all we get the SE Ridge. 

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Just now, John1122 said:

If we can get an EPO ridge where that one is depicted we tend to mute then MJO to a large extent. The EPO can he epic or stink though. It it's west based at all we get the SE Ridge. 

Thanks, I thought I remembered that the EPO "could" mute the MJO.  Definitely both scenarios(epic or spin) in play at this range IMO...Have seen some LR modeling that retrogrades the ridge a bit too far and the SER pops.  Past 24 hours worth of model runs have looked better.  

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12z GEPS follows suit with the GEFS d10+....still a true threat the trough could retrograde back West.  But two seasonable to cold model runs for much of the lower 48 east of the Rockies.   Been a while since I have seen a full latitude trough verify during winter...so I am always suspect.  That said, better than staring at what we did during much of this month(November).

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thanks, I thought I remembered that the EPO "could" mute the MJO.  Definitely both scenarios(epic or spin) in play at this range IMO...Have seen some LR modeling that retrogrades the ridge a bit too far and the SER pops.  Past 24 hours worth of model runs have looked better.  

I think it was February 2015 when the EPO drove us into Polar Vortex land and it just blasted MJO, +NAO and all that into near meaninglessness. 

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Took last week off and totally checked out. I'm so far behind in this thread that it's hopeless. However I guess that's a good thing if the pattern is worth discussing.

ECMWF weeklies followed the CFS with now a third cold week, counting this week, week 2 and week 3. Now we are in -ABNA with some +PNA which is cold. 

MJO is in a decent phase. While we have a week TC attempt near Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, the vast majority of convection is in colder phases of the West Pac.

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15 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Took last week off and totally checked out. I'm so far behind in this thread that it's hopeless. However I guess that's a good thing if the pattern is worth discussing.

ECMWF weeklies followed the CFS with now a third cold week, counting this week, week 2 and week 3. Now we are in -ABNA with some +PNA which is cold. 

MJO is in a decent phase. While we have a week TC attempt near Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, the vast majority of convection is in colder phases of the West Pac.

Thanks for the update and welcome back!   Hope you had some great time off.  We are busy switching our running gear from summer to winter.  LOL.  

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Out in fantasy land the Euro looked interesting days 8 - 10:

giphy.gif

Not a lot of cold air around, so we would probably be waiting on a the N. stream to catch up to the southern one, even though the s. stream energy takes a sweet track.

0z EPS 24 hour snow plots look like scattershot, so not much agreement there for anything (though there is a little support for less than an inch around Memphis with the storm later this week). 

Long range EPS still liking the time near mid month for an even colder pattern, after a brief warm up:

giphy.gif

Like Cravers has said, this looks very very similar to what models showed at range, this time of the year, only to turn into a trough in the SW that only slowly and inconsistently pushes east.

GEPS looks similar for a while, but in a change from some previous runs, it gets rid of EPO ridge over AK and plops a trough:

giphy.gif

That would produce the old Pac Puke

GEFS looks like a split between the two, but leaning a little towards the GEPS:

giphy.gif 

In terms of MJO/ tropical convection, not much to add to what Jeff said yesterday.  So it seems a little weird that the GEFS and GEPS seem to have bit on a look that seems more MC convection based.

The EPS does see a little more suppression/ confusion for how the MJO will evolve and Ventrice's plots seem to favor more western Pac convection towards week 3 (EPS, GEFS, and Ventrice's OLR plots, in that order):

giphy.gif

 

 

Actual convection doesn't really seem to reflect a big MC MJO event to me, but admittedly I have no clue what the MJO looks like on satellite, other than a mass of convection. Sure there is some convection there, but I have seen much worse. I've been watching it for a while this year and it just seems anemic each time it gets to the MC so far. Hopefully I haven't jinxed it now, lol. And there's convection out near the dateline,. Maybe the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is messing with the ensembles depictions of how tropical convection will evolve to impact the N Hemisphere pattern? 

 

Hz7aelD.png

 

Apologies if I have misrepresented anything others have said. 100% not my goal. 

 

 

 

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Don't sleep on the 0z GEM for this weekend....was close to a decent storm for the eastern valley.  Euro was just an open wave that amounted to nothing.  6z GFS was close.  More of an outside shot, but the Canadian gets a bit more weight than usual as it did decently with this last system.  I mean the 0z GFS as @TellicoWx mentioned, was decent for middle TN.  Last year, we kind of didn't have enough cold with the HB block.  This year, we have barely enough, but as last night shows...the cold doesn't have to be overwhelming to get snow.  Right now, only the Euro(and that is an important piece) is without a snow solution for someone in the TN Valley forum area.

In the LR, definitely a pattern breakdown on the 0z GEPS and 6z GEFS at 500.  The 0z EPS is pretty solid.  Basically modeling is calling for that really deep trough mid-month to lift into Alaska.  Plenty of option on the table which also include and EPO in that area.  Right now, I would lean towards that trough lifting out for the last third of the month, but am not confident in that at all.  I do think there is potential for cold/snow to return in January(if it indeed leaves).  The Cansips this AM has flipped to a cold SE for DEC.  It pulls the cold back in January, but based on its 500 look...seems like their is room for cold to move out of the Rockies into the SE...

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For us strat junkies, despite the wxtwitterverse occasionally seeing something to get excited about, I'm not seeing much yet, but there are some perturbations (as they say in the old country) toward 50mb. But up at the top, the SPV looks pretty stout (gif shows heights at 50 mb, but ends on heights at 10 mb):

giphy.gif

 

Lawrence's 3D vortex reflects that:

giphy.gif 

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah, this made me decide to go look at the UKMET.....and......:

giphy.gif 

not an awful look at all

Just watching the 12z GFS out to 90, very similar set-up to the UKMET from this AM.

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Basically seeing the 12z ICON and 12z GFS develop a low on the front and bring a system NNE from the Panhandle of Florida.  Has the potential to be a really big interior NE snowstorm(northeast of here), but will be interesting if someone can get enough marginal, cold air to wrap into the storm to get some snow early in its development.

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12z GEM takes a fairly organized SLP from the panhandle.  Snow is middle TN at 102.  Even though that has marginal cold, that track will work - especially if that system is that organized.  Trending towards something that needs to be watched closely.

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