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Chicago Storm

Late July Heat Wave

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High amount of support for a shorter duration heat wave to impact the region once again, in the Fri-Mon timeframe.
 
Unlike this current mid-month period that has generally favored the Ohio River region for sustained hot temps, due to a more zonal flow and elongated ridge...This upcoming period will feature a nicely -PNA, which will aide in developing a quality/strong ridge...nearly 597DM on some guidance.
 
 
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49 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Not this time.


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For his lakeside locale it probably will be.  You thought the last one would be a more legitimate heatwave so we'll see.

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22 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:
For his lakeside locale it probably will be.  You thought the last one would be a more legitimate heatwave so we'll see.


This current period was more that I was just jonesing for it, along with the week+ out phantom death heat wave on guidance.

In this case, we are just a few days out now and the overall idea is supported very well by a nicely -PNA. Plus, there’s a significant difference as you can see below, from this current period to compared to the weekend.

c5d340c3a446f47d77bd4ed766577e8c.jpg
e1cdae65e5c55b260ca97b3d6abd2bb1.jpg


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Temps aloft would support some pretty warm highs.  

The GFS looks fairly convectivey during the period, but upon closer inspection, it appears it is more of a diurnal thing that the model is suggesting.  There is obviously a difference between pop up type diurnal storms and large convective complexes which overturn the airmass in a large area.  So my thought is that this round of heat will likely have hotter temps farther north than the last round. 

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If we can get a tropical system this week in the Gulf that could help pump the ridge northward as well, and slow the pattern down. I will buy in for a dollar on this heat wave coming in.

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4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


Not this time.


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he's go IMBY syndrome

 

Supposed to go camping this weekend.  Bringing the Jackery with the fans for sure then.  

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17 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

another 1 day heatwave

this is looking like the right call again

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this is looking like the right call again

Must be losing your eye sight at your old age.


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0z euro looked like 1 day of 90+ IMBY, and even that will probably be lowered with convective debris

you're really forcing these heat wave threads 

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:
0z euro looked like 1 day of 90+ IMBY, and even that will probably be lowered with convective debris you're really forcing these heat wave threads  

 

Euro is solid 90’s Sat/Sun, with wildcard days on Fri/Mon. Convective debris isn’t an issue until Mon, given ridge orientation. GFS is solid 90’s that 4 day stretch. 

I’m not forcing anything, the overall pattern with a quality -PNA supports the stronger ridge development into our area. Mid month worked out as expected in the Ohio Valley. Outside of for the push this past weekend, guidance had jumped ship for our area for the mid-month period several days out.

if anything is being forced, it’s your overestimation of how cool it’s been iyby.

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


Must be losing your eye sight at your old age.


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It’s definitely still in play for Alek’s hood and north of the Cheddar Curtain.  ORD probably will be at least a two, probably three, day wave of 90s.

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It’s definitely still in play for Alek’s hood and north of the Cheddar Curtain.  ORD probably will be at least a two, probably three, day wave of 90s.

Pretty much, overall.

He just has the imby blinders on.


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Side note...There should be decent t’storm chances (we’ll see about severe) in the region Sun-Wed, as the ridge breaks down and shifts west.


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Fwiw, when I looked earlier, the low level flow seemed like it would be strong enough to hold back a lake breeze for Alek's area, at least on Sat/Sun.

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Would be nice to see some 100+ temps in these heatwaves, but instead it's cooler with sky high dews.  I definitely think that increased precip and this frankencorn that is pretty resistant to all but the worst droughts explains the increasing difficulty in reaching 100.

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11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

climo has changed, we're too wet for that 100+ nonsense now

Thought we were getting STL climo? That's still good for some 100's.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Would be nice to see some 100+ temps in these heatwaves, but instead it's cooler with sky high dews.  I definitely think that increased precip and this frankencorn that is pretty resistant to all but the worst droughts explains the increasing difficulty in reaching 100.

Pretty much. Even though this mid-month period coming to an end has produced hot temps and quite a string of 90+ days in the OV, there hasn't been anything hotter than the mid 90's in this region. 

Speaking of streaks, today is the 19th consecutive 90+ day at PAH.

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19 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

he's go IMBY syndrome

 

Supposed to go camping this weekend.  Bringing the Jackery with the fans for sure then.  

I'm headed out west to the usual destination of White Pines State Park for camping this weekend as well.

I don't think there has ever been one time I've gone where it wasn't hot, humid and stormy...and this time around looks no different.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Pretty much. Even though this mid-month period coming to an end has produced hot temps and quite a string of 90+ days in the OV, there hasn't been anything hotter than the mid 90's in this region. 

Speaking of streaks, today is the 19th consecutive 90+ day at PAH.

Not in this subforum, but Roanoke, VA has had 90+ every day this month so far, and it looks likely to continue for at least the next week.  I had no idea they had a climate supportive of that kind of streak.  Richmond I thought would have a higher likelihood.  Pretty humid heat this week too.

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'm headed out west to the usual destination of White Pines State Park for camping this weekend as well.

I don't think there has ever been one time I've gone where it wasn't hot, humid and stormy...and this time around looks no different.

yeah this weekend usually delivers

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2 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

Not in this subforum, but Roanoke, VA has had 90+ every day this month so far, and it looks likely to continue for at least the next week.  I had no idea they had a climate supportive of that kind of streak.  Richmond I thought would have a higher likelihood.  Pretty humid heat this week too.

Good catch there.

Looks like record most 90+ days in July there is 26 days (1930), so definitely within reach. Also, the longest 90+ streak on record is 22 days (6/23-7/14/1966), which is likely to be tied or broken.

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11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

lol

Capture.JPG

Classic miss just south look for t'storms with the front on Monday.

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I pulled up the 100 degree stats for Chicago.  Only went back to the 1940s since the official ob site moved inland in the early 1940s, so it makes for a better comparison through the decades.

Number of 100+ days by decade:

1940s:  10

1950s:  8

1960s:  1

1970s:  3

1980s:  12

1990s:  5

2000s:  1

2010s:  4

 

Now here are the number of years in each decade that had 100 degree days.  I think this is useful to look at as well since it gives an idea if one year is responsible for all of the days.  Chicago had 4 100+ degree days in the 2010s, but as you can see, all 4 happened in one year (2012).

 

1940s:  6

1950s:  5

1960s:  1

1970s:  2

1980s:  4

1990s:  3

2000s:  1

2010s:  1

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Classic miss just south look for t'storms with the front on Monday.

yeah, trash run

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This is actually looking more like continuation of the warm/humid period we have been in for several weeks with a uptick in dews over the weekend. 80's with humidity and the potential for a storm now and than isn't terrible July weather. 

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