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mappy

COVID-19 Talk

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58 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Smart and what I've been saying this entire time. Exactly what we need to do. Get PPE, get testing, get contact tracing.

Everyone has been saying this, even federal officials like Fauci and Birx.  

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Everyone has been saying this, even federal officials like Fauci and Birx.  

Get real bro. It's never going to happen en-masse and it's not going to happen in the third-world. Next best thing ... vaccines and herd immunity.

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

It's hard for sure. Honestly my heart hurts that my son is missing time from his friends.

Same. Understand the heart ache 

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ive heard that whatever grade you child had at the end of the 3rd marking period will be the final but that's just a rumor at this point.

Distance learning has been a bit difficult so far. Mainly with just websites not working ,etc.

I saw your post. Teacher friends I have haven’t heard anything 

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3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ive heard that whatever grade you child had at the end of the 3rd marking period will be the final but that's just a rumor at this point.

Distance learning has been a bit difficult so far. Mainly with just websites not working ,etc.

That’s how we are doing it in VA.  

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Printing money can’t solve a supply shortage. We don’t have a supply shortage.  Not all economic situations are the same. 

Seems like a bold statement. Supply shortages in some cases are here already (could be mostly due to hoarding right now), and others are right around the corner.

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

See my post to Yeoman. We can offset the imbalance later. During this crises you won’t see rapid inflation because of offsetting negative economic pressures. Supply shortages could become a bigger issue but most essential products will continue to be produced and the supply chain is operating for now. A disruption in that would be devastating but that’s a different issue. Other products won’t run out because there is a drop in demand with everyone on lockdown. The “print money = inflation” analogy is 100 level Econ. I’m talking advanced “real” policy here. 

Hyperinflation has definitely occurred in the real world and it destroyed entire nations... it's not a theoretical idea and hitting the pause button on over half of the global economy overnight is unprecedented. Uncharted waters.

In order to offset the imbalance, we would need to cut spending later which never, ever happens in this country any more. We are almost entirely dependent on consumption right now...

 

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12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ive heard that whatever grade you child had at the end of the 3rd marking period will be the final but that's just a rumor at this point.

Distance learning has been a bit difficult so far. Mainly with just websites not working ,etc.

That's one way to do it, but that will be deeply unfair to some students. Probably unavoidable.

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9 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’m expecting schools to stay closed. Everyone gets punted to the next grade level, seniors graduate and so on. It will suck but they can’t hold kids back and they can’t restart. So unless they expect kids to go to school during the summer...there are no other options. 
so the biggest issue for my house, and I assume many others, is we have a kid at home who isn’t old enough to stay home alone, with two parents whose offices are now open and we are expected to show up. Without a childcare plan in place, it means one of us has to stay home, until school starts again. It’s not feasible. Our offices are understanding now, because everything is shut down...but how understanding will they be if things open up and we still stay home? I’d hope understanding but who the hell knows what these corporate minds think. 
 

im just rambling now about my own concerns moving forward. I want things to be as close to normal as everyone else does, but I understand the risk. I’m glad Hogan is already putting a plan in motion on how to reopen. It’s reassuring, but man sooo many variables to consider.

I hear you and feel for you the situation you're in (having been there myself not that many years ago!).  It is a concern in terms of whether daycare places open at the same time anyone's office does; I'd guess probably not at the same time.  One would *hope*, really, that coming out of this at some point, work places that are allowing remote/teleworking would extend that to those who must still be at home to care for a child whose daycare or school is not yet open.  That would be reasonable, I'd think.  I mean, if they have no problem with you remote working now, why would they have a problem even if the office is "open"?  But you're right...how understanding will some of these corporate entities be?  I know as a gov't employee, I'm extremely fortunate that they've become far more flexible in the past decade concerning teleworking.  Heck, some people TW a few days a week regularly, even if they're right here in town (DC area).

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That's one way to do it, but that will be deeply unfair to some students. Probably unavoidable.

What is the true purpose of education if the higher education system is shut down? Shouldn't we be re-tooling our kids with different skill sets?

I know it's early but I would rather have my child capable of growing a garden and knowing medicinal herbs and the various other survival skills.

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Gonna be another very bad death total today, CT  197, MI 151, MA 153, NJ 351, IL 80.  All at or near their highest.  

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Would be a great time to attempt a coup and/or request "emergency powers."

Okay Jar Jar ;)

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40 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Hyperinflation has definitely occurred in the real world and it destroyed entire nations... it's not a theoretical idea and hitting the pause button on over half of the global economy overnight is unprecedented. Uncharted waters.

In order to offset the imbalance, we would need to cut spending later which never, ever happens in this country any more. We are almost entirely dependent on consumption right now...

 

I didn’t say inflation isn’t real or that infusing too much currency into a market is always a good idea. In general it’s a bad idea. But not all infusions imbalance the economy equally.  And there are ways to deal with the imbalance without drastic cuts.  When the economy grows you can offset some of the imbalance simply by keeping expenditures level.  There are also monetary tools to mitigate without fiscal measures. We could reduce the excess currency in circulation by selling securities. We can control inflation by raising the discount rate or reserve requirement.

Ideally we want to avoid creating a currency excess but at times it can be managed and the lesser evil. 

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24 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Gonna be another very bad death total today, CT  197, MI 151, MA 153, NJ 351, IL 80.  All at or near their highest.  

Death is a lagging indicator. Those dying now were infected at least 14-20 days ago or more, on average (there are outliers). We need to stick to the plan through the death counts.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Death is a lagging indicator. Those dying now were infected at least 14-20 days ago or more, on average (there are outliers). We need to stick to the plan through the death counts.

25,000 new cases in the US and those deaths are 14-20 days away. Not sure I accept that line of reasoning. We need to lock-down for 6 months and we need door to door vaccines. A massive mobilization effort. Hospitals are death traps.

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5 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

25,000 new cases in the US and those deaths are 14-20 days away. Not sure I accept that line of reasoning. We need to lock-down for 6 months and we need door to door vaccines. A massive mobilization effort. Hospitals are death traps.

Yeah, I'm sure the CFR on those 25,000 people will jump to 100% and they were all infected the day of the test. Good post.

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Re: grading

End of year grades as of Q3 will be implemented. Schools are going to see a lot of kids....maybe even an overwhelming number....not completing their tasks for a number of reasons. Teachers, kids, and parents are all in a shitty position.

I already recommended to my daughters teachers that they load the weeks worth of assignments at the beginning of the week as opposed to day by day. For starters, seeing the weekly workload on sunday night or monday morning helps with simple planning for the week in the house.

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

not something i would openly advertise. 

Well recently I moved to a health care company and we develop software for Health Record interoperability.. I really though I was gonna be doing stuff that was gonna have a direct impact on helping people.. but it is pretty far removed from helping people.. so I guess I will take what I can take and be grateful for having a job!   

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25 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Death is a lagging indicator. Those dying now were infected at least 14-20 days ago or more, on average (there are outliers). We need to stick to the plan through the death counts.

It might be less than that.. I have heard reports that it goes from 0-60 really fast for the vulnerable population.  but yeah.. we are definitely seeing a lag.. hopefully we are over the hump and we are in the peak for deaths.. fingers crossed.

 

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What Alexandria City P.S. is doing for grading in the 4th quarter is that it is pass/no record for secondary students (grades 6-12). So as long as a student earns a 60% or higher, 4th quarter counts as a pass at a flat 100%, with the 4 quarters being 25% each in weight (e.g. (72+68+75+100)/4)). If the student doesn't hit 60%, then 4th quarter does not exist grade-wise, which means the three previous quarters factor in 1/3 each for determining the final percent. 

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11 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

It might be less than that.. I have heard reports that it goes from 0-60 really fast for the vulnerable population.  but yeah.. we are definitely seeing a lag.. hopefully we are over the hump and we are in the peak for deaths.. fingers crossed.

 

There was a chart somewhere I saw that showed ICU timelines for very ill patients. They spent between 8-10 days in the ICU, as I recall. And that was on top of 8-10 days before they showed up very ill.

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Another study out of Boston just released that shows how widely this disease spreads under the radar.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1

It was a homeless population, the kind of people who don't have good social distancing practices and don't show up to the ER with the sniffles to get tested: classic hidden spreaders.

Quote

The circumstances of homelessness create the potential for rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in this vulnerable population. Upon observing a cluster of COVID-19 cases from a single large homeless shelter in Boston, Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program conducted symptom assessments and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 among all guests residing at the shelter over a 2-day period. Of 408 participants, 147 (36.0%) were PCR-positive for SARS-CoV-2. COVID-positive individuals were more likely to be male (p<0.001) but did not differ significantly from COVID-negative individuals with respect to other demographic and clinical characteristics. Cough (7.5%), shortness of breath (1.4%), and fever (0.7%) were all uncommon among COVID-positive individuals. Our findings illustrate the rapidity with which COVID-19 can be widely transmitted in a homeless shelter setting and suggest that universal PCR testing, rather than a symptom triggered approach, may be a better strategy for identifying and mitigating COVID-19 among people experiencing homelessness.

The very low rate of symptoms at time of testing is pretty crazy, even crazier than 36% of them being infected. Obviously you can't extrapolate to the whole country, but this is another log on the fire that this disease has already infected far, far more people than the official numbers and it presents mild or no symptoms for a lot of people. Keep driving that IFR down...

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Another study out of Boston just released that shows how widely this disease spreads under the radar.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1

It was a homeless population, the kind of people who don't have good social distancing practices and don't show up to the ER with the sniffles to get tested: classic hidden spreaders.

The very low rate of symptoms at time of testing is pretty crazy, even crazier than 36% of them being infected. Obviously you can't extrapolate to the whole country, but this is another log on the fire that this disease has already infected far, far more people than the official numbers and it presents mild or no symptoms for a lot of people. Keep driving that IFR down...

Can I ask you a question.. what if we get a good antibody test and it shows ~60% immunity in the population (I personally think that is a conservative number.. but what do I know?)... what does that mean for the the current policy?  Does that mean that we need to selectively let people out of quarantine if they have immunity?  Or would that mean something bigger? Perhaps that we have had the hospital capacity all along and we should simply cancel the quarantine? 

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52 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Re: grading

End of year grades as of Q3 will be implemented. Schools are going to see a lot of kids....maybe even an overwhelming number....not completing their tasks for a number of reasons. Teachers, kids, and parents are all in a shitty position.

I already recommended to my daughters teachers that they load the weeks worth of assignments at the beginning of the week as opposed to day by day. For starters, seeing the weekly workload on sunday night or monday morning helps with simple planning for the week in the house.

Baltimore county hasn’t been great. We were supposed to get two weeks worth of stuff, last week. Still nothing. It’s online, but at first grade most of it needs to be done on paper. We’ve printed things as we’ve needed them. She gets one hour a week of face time with her class and teacher. Not enough, IMO. But I know it’s tough for everyone 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Baltimore county hasn’t been great. We were supposed to get two weeks worth of stuff, last week. Still nothing. It’s online, but at first grade most of it needs to be done on paper. We’ve printed things as we’ve needed them. She gets one hour a week of face time with her class and teacher. Not enough, IMO. But I know it’s tough for everyone 

My daughters class hasnt had a live video chat in 2 weeks. The kids are asking for it, but......

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Any of the parents hear from their respective daycare facilities? I reached out to the before n after care my daughter attends, and they're at the mercy of the state reopening things. Just hoping these places can survive this, so I dont have to scramble to find a new one.

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