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COVID-19 Talk

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3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Sorry for the undated article.  Here’s a few from the other day.

https://www.newsweek.com/anthony-fauci-coronavirus-reactivation-get-it-twice-immunity-1497246

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/10/top-coronavirus-expert-skeptical-claims-people-reinfected-12536333/

Fauci also said the same thing at the briefing just a few days ago.

Not doubting Fauci one bit. But he has also said as have many others that this virus is one of the most interesting that they have ever studied but none have gone into detail about what exactly is so "interesting" and fascinating about it. What arent we hearing?

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43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not doubting Fauci one bit. But he has also said as have many others that this virus is one of the most interesting that they have ever studied but none have gone into detail about what exactly is so "interesting" and fascinating about it. What arent we hearing?

I don’t know for sure but he could be referring to the number of asymptomatic carriers and the long incubation period.  

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I guess one good thing about the pandemic is that open container laws have gone to the waste side... lots of folks in fells point yesterday enjoying beers and crushes with their carryout on the sidewalks outside of #Kooperstavern and other pubs... it was a neat site to see.. kids playing in the square.. people drinking and enjoying themselves.. there was even a guy with an acoustic guitar :) singing.  Of course every one was social distancing themselves properly.  

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15 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I guess one good thing about the pandemic is that open container laws have gone to the waste side... lots of folks in fells point yesterday enjoying beers and crushes with their carryout on the sidewalks outside of #Kooperstavern and other pubs... it was a neat site to see.. kids playing in the square.. people drinking and enjoying themselves.. there was even a guy with an acoustic guitar :) singing.  Of course every one was social distancing themselves properly.  

Or Baltimore City police can’t enforce crap cuz the leaders at the top are so incompetent lol. But yeah, the carry out booze has been a nice touch. Lots of restaurants offering amazing deals on some damn good beer too

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Disney furloughing 40k+ employees

Smithfield is closing its largest plant for 2 weeks bc so many people were infected. Over 3k employees. The plant handles 5% of the countries meat supply.

Other meat factories in PA and CO temporarily closed.

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Just found out yesterday that there is a good chance my 49 year old brother in VA Beach has the virus as well as some if not all of his immediate family. Little pissed that we had to find out about it on Facebook from a post my wife caught, but that is another story. He has been tested twice (first was a throat swab that from what I understand are very unreliable)(2nd one took 11 days to get back from the labs) and both have come back negative. But the doctors/specialists he has seen are pretty confident that he does in fact have covid despite these negative results.

At this point it looks as if he may have caught it at a work conference in late January from an individual that attended that lives/flew out of NY. This individual later tested positive for covid. He first started showing symptoms while on an early March skiing trip up in the Poconos with his wife. Symptoms became so severe so quickly that they cut the trip 3 days short so they could come back to VA just in case. By the time they did get back to VA he was so bad his wife rushed him to the ER where they tested him for covid and took an x-ray to find that he has pneumonia.  Since then his symptoms have been severe but not severe enough as of yet to warrant hospitalization despite a second recent visit to the ER. The way he tells it, is that there has been a waxing and waning of the severity of these symptoms. There are some days he is able to move around the house somewhat without major issues but then there are other days that just a simple trip to the kitchen/bathroom drops his oxygen levels so low that he is on the verge of passing out.

Now I am no expert when it comes to this but after dealing with the health issues and eventual passings of my Mother, Mother in Law and Father in Law these last 5 years I do have an idea what oxygen levels are acceptable, severe and critical. And the numbers he has thrown out for his down periods are at least border line if not in fact severe. These numbers would probably get someone admitted for treatment and observation and not sent home to convalesce on their own. This makes me wonder if we may see an unintended consequence of this fear of hospitals getting over run. Are we going to see that many are turned away when they should have probably been admitted where there was a much better ability to treat them? Only to have these same individuals come back later farther into the progression of the virus where it is much harder to treat and the probability of death increases greatly? 

Anyway, talking to him yesterday he was in one of his up periods as he tells it. And yet you could tell he was exhausted, short of breath and a little out of it. He has the ability to telework from home and has made several attempts to do so without much success. Considering we are now talking 6+ weeks without any resolution to this he is talking with his employers and they are trying to determine whether short/long term disability should be considered. He also tells me that his wife has had/continues to have the same symptoms as well though a good deal less severe. Both sons experienced symptoms as well but they were of a very minor nature and were gone within a couple of days.

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7 hours ago, H2O said:

If they can’t keep making bacon I’m going to riot

yikes!  Thats actually fairly significant if 5% of the nations meet supply gets impacted.  Naturally we will see an increase in prices, perhaps a significant increase.  

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This article sort of scratches the surface on why I give no legitimacy to any research/info that is coming out of China. Spent roughly a month initially pouring over the numbers/reports/studies and it became evident very quickly that the numbers made absolutely no sense. In fact two studies that I did see that actually were believable quietly disappeared a few days later. The CCP is firmly in control of all this information. So though I might sound like a hypocritical A-Hole for not accepting China data in any of our discussions on here this is for good reason in my mind. After all, how do you debate numbers that more then likely have been drawn out of a hat?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-coronavirus-research-block-narrative-documents

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Questions.. why does the flu oscillate with the weather.. is the "we spend more time outdoors" theory, the only reason or are there other factors at play?  And to tie this in to COVID-19, will we see this fluctuate with the warm weather? If COVID-19 does fluctuate with the seasons (which remains to be seen), how does this winter's warmth play in to the onset and spread of COVID-19 in the US and other regions that had an abnormally warm winter?

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4 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Questions.. why does the flu oscillate with the weather.. is the "we spend more time outdoors" theory, the only reason or are there other factors at play?  And to tie this in to COVID-19, will we see this fluctuate with the warm weather? If COVID-19 does fluctuate with the seasons (which remains to be seen), how does this winter's warmth play in to the onset and spread of COVID-19 in the US and other regions that had an abnormally warm winter?

You are talking the seasonal type of flu that waxes and wanes over the different seasons. We see breakouts of it during the colder/drier months and it dies out with an increase in temps and humidity. These virus do not like the higher humidities. 

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

This article sort of scratches the surface on why I give no legitimacy to any research/info that is coming out of China. Spent roughly a month initially pouring over the numbers/reports/studies and it became evident very quickly that the numbers made absolutely no sense. In fact two studies that I did see that actually were believable quietly disappeared a few days later. The CCP is firmly in control of all this information. So though I might sound like a hypocritical A-Hole for not accepting China data in any of our discussions on here this is for good reason in my mind. After all, how do you debate numbers that more then likely have been drawn out of a hat?

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-coronavirus-research-block-narrative-documents

100% agree.. CCP is in control of what goes out.. and they direct the narrative.  One of my biggest questions that I have had all along was "How did China more or less eradicate the virus"?  If you look at the daily numbers, they literally fell off the map in mid February:

image.thumb.png.ddd4189a0041ba9ad2259401776b8560.png

 

However, if you look at the timeline of what happened and how this all played out, there is actually a much more plausible and realistic explanation of what is going on there.  China began its tight lockdown measures in early February, and they didn't fully close all of the schools until a week or two later.  If you look at the graph above, the number of daily cases peaked in mid January.  I think we can all agree the one day 15K number is simply a cluster in reporting (probably a lag somewhere in the system).   

Therefore, it is fairly safe to assume that China's historic quarantine was enacted after the virus ran its course.  If this is true.. what can be learned from this?

 

 

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7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Meanwhile the vegans are quietly laughing with glee...lol

Think I would be more concerned with possibly contracting corona from fresh foods such vegies and fruits. These don't get cooked liked the meats do where the virus gets killed from the heat.

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12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You are talking the seasonal type of flu that waxes and wanes over the different seasons. We see breakouts of it during the colder/drier months and it dies out with an increase in temps and humidity. These virus do not like the higher humidities. 

yes.. I have seen various studies that talk about humidity.. so that would be a direct environmental action against the virus verses what is more or less a "social distancing" argument in that when people spend more times outdoors, viruses do not spread as much.  I think this should be looked at in greater detail.. which one is it? Maybe a mix of both.. our forum and our collective minds offer a great platform to discuss and shed light on questions like this.. 

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25 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

100% agree.. CCP is in control of what goes out.. and they direct the narrative.  One of my biggest questions that I have had all along was "How did China more or less eradicate the virus"?  If you look at the daily numbers, they literally fell off the map in mid February:

 

 

However, if you look at the timeline of what happened and how this all played out, there is actually a much more plausible and realistic explanation of what is going on there.  China began its tight lockdown measures in early February, and they didn't fully close all of the schools until a week or two later.  If you look at the graph above, the number of daily cases peaked in mid January.  I think we can all agree the one day 15K number is simply a cluster in reporting (probably a lag somewhere in the system).   

Therefore, it is fairly safe to assume that China's historic quarantine was enacted after the virus ran its course.  If this is true.. what can be learned from this?

 

 

That has been the problem since day 1. The numbers/graphs made no sense to me with what you would see as far as how a virus evolves. None. Even considering the draconian measures (far too many reports of them welding people into their homes to discount this possibility) that were put into place. Their numbers suggest that they were well into the curve on infections/deaths from virtually day one and that they dropped from the peak to the tail end of the breakout in far to short a period of time. All the numbers in between are for the most part nonsense as well and don't fit a viruses growth and dissipation (though as you said there could have been a clustering of reporting that they didn't differentiate when these cases in fact occurred). The numbers involved on the life cycle of a virus just don't lie. And nothing they threw up came even close to what I would have expected to see.

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22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

That has been the problem since day 1. The numbers/graphs make no sense with what you would see as far as how a virus evolves. None. Even considering the draconian measures (far too many reports of them welding people into their homes to discount this possibility) that were put into place. Their numbers suggest that they were well into the curve on infections/deaths from virtually day one and that they dropped from the peak to the end of the breakout in a matter of days where they were claiming no new infections. All the numbers in between are for the most part nonsense as well and don't fit a viruses growth and dissipation. The numbers involved on the life cycle of a virus just don't lie. And nothing they threw up came even close to what we should have seen.

Maybe the China numbers are real (or at least indicative of ground truth).. this is comes from a scientific article and shows how pandemics more or less "eradicate themselves" over a period of 45-90 days.  

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340325643_The_first_three_months_of_the_COVID-19_epidemic_Epidemiological_evidence_for_two_separate_strains_of_SARS-CoV-2_viruses_spreading_and_implications_for_prevention_strategies

 

image.thumb.png.920a8ca056ce9bfbb99c63bf8e41e3ed.png

Give the graph above, and the associated article, it appears that pandemic respiratory illness will more or less "disappear"  after roughly 80% of the population becomes immune and that the natural curve will not (but more importantly should not) be flattened. 

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2 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Maybe the China numbers are real (or at least indicative of ground truth).. this is comes from an article from scientific article and shows how pandemics more or less "eradicate themselves" over a period of 45-90 days.  

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340325643_The_first_three_months_of_the_COVID-19_epidemic_Epidemiological_evidence_for_two_separate_strains_of_SARS-CoV-2_viruses_spreading_and_implications_for_prevention_strategies

 

 

Give the graph above, and the associated article, it appears that pandemic respiratory illness will more or less "disappear"  after roughly 80% of the population becomes immune and that the natural curve will not (but more importantly should not) be flattened. 

You are referring to the herd immunity approach to dealing with a virus. Allowing the virus to play out naturally without any outside interference. You could do that but then you have to deal with the casualties in the wake. And when you have a virus with a fairly high mortality rate that is an awful lot of bodies to bury if we are talking 80% of a population. About the only time I can see this approach being reasonable is if we are dealing with a virus that has an extremely low mortality rate. 

As far as the ground truth with China's numbers and their accuracy? The way I am seeing it through crunching some numbers they are substantially under playing what we in fact saw. And consensus is growing that this is in fact the case. We could very well be talking 5x, 6x maybe even 10x is the actual ground truth. There is really no way to truly know when they are controlling all the information. All we can do is try to glean an idea from secondary sources.

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44 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

yes.. I have seen various studies that talk about humidity.. so that would be a direct environmental action against the virus verses what is more or less a "social distancing" argument in that when people spend more times outdoors, viruses do not spread as much.  I think this should be looked at in greater detail.. which one is it? Maybe a mix of both.. our forum and our collective minds offer a great platform to discuss and shed light on questions like this.. 

Look at what is going on in Ecuador; humidity does not appear to be a factor w Covid 19.

 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You are referring to the herd immunity approach to dealing with a virus. Allowing the virus to play out naturally without any outside interference. You could do that but then you have to deal with the casualties in the wake. And when you have a virus with a fairly high mortality rate that is an awful lot of bodies to bury if we are talking 80% of a population. About the only time I can see this approach being reasonable is if we are dealing with a virus that has an extremely low mortality rate. 

As far as the ground truth with China's numbers and their accuracy? The way I am seeing it through crunching some numbers they are substantially under playing what we in fact saw. And consensus is growing that this is in fact the case. We could very well be talking 5x, 6x maybe even 10x is the actual ground truth. There is really no way to truly know when they are controlling all the information. All we can do is try to glean an idea from secondary sources.

Agree.. the number are not accurate... there is probably some multiplier.. but when you multiple that number by zero new case.. you still get zero. 

That being said, can we agree that the Pandemic more or less ended in China in mid to late February (the same time that they closed schools)?

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45 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Agree.. the number are not accurate... there is probably some multiplier.. but when you multiple that number by zero new case.. you still get zero. 

That being said, can we agree that the Pandemic more or less ended in China in mid to late February (the same time that they closed schools)?

I am not so sure that may be the case.

They locked down Jia County (600,000 people) roughly 2 weeks ago and just shut down this past Wed. Suifenhe City, Heilongjang (100,000 residents).

China is such a massive country with many remote regions. It is to be expected that maybe some of these regions will be several weeks if not longer beyond the curve we were seeing in the more populous regions. So when they were claiming victory several weeks ago I had to laugh. There was really no way in Hell that I could see that they had achieved it just for the more populous ares let alone for the more remote regions.

eta: Also wanted to add at roughly the same time they were claiming victory there were reports that they were actually refusing to test for the virus. There were far too many reports of this just to ignore this possibility.

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15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am not so sure that may be the case.

They locked down Jia County (600,000 people) roughly 2 weeks ago and just shut down this past Wed. Suifenhe City, Heilongjang (100,000 residents).

China is such a massive country with many remote regions. It is to be expected that maybe some of these regions will be several weeks if not longer beyond the curve we were seeing in the more populous regions. So when they were claiming victory several weeks ago I had to laugh. There was really no way in Hell that I could see that they had achieved it just for the more populous ares let alone for the more remote regions.

eta: Also wanted to add at roughly the same time they were claiming victory there were reports that they were actually refusing to test for the virus. There were far too many reports of this just to ignore this possibility.

Didn't china employ an antibody test early in the game?

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Just now, 40westwx said:

Didn't china employ an antibody test early in the game?

Yeah. pretty sure they had testing though I would have to go back and check. Doesn't do you any good though if China decides they are no longer going to do the testing. They have also been destroying records as well. We may never truly know exactly when/where this virus originated and our patient zero. Far too many secondary sources have come out that claim that the CCP have for the most part destroyed the records concerning these earlier cases. Really, everything that we are seeing is indicative of a massive cover-up. The question is, will the world allow it and move on its merry way. Sadly, this is research that is vitally important on understanding virus spread at onset and yet none of the research that they have thrown out should realistically be used. If it is used in future studies we are potentially talking a virus model/response that is fatally flawed and could cost us lives, potentially a substantial number on any future outbreak.

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

New cases popping up in Asia. There's only two choices in my mind. Get as many people tested and traced or be ok with it coming back in a real way

Yep, and if history is any guide all levels of government will move too slow and this will take longer than it should to come back online. 

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16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah. pretty sure they had testing though I would have to go back and check. Doesn't do you any good though if China decides they are no longer going to do the testing. They have also been destroying records as well. We may never truly know exactly when/where this virus originated and our patient zero. Far too many secondary sources have come out that claim that the CCP have for the most part destroyed the records concerning these earlier cases. Really, everything that we are seeing is indicative of a massive cover-up. The question is, will the world allow it and move on its merry way. Sadly, this is research that is vitally important on understanding virus spread at onset and yet none of the research that they have thrown out should realistically be used. If it is used in future studies we are potentially talking a virus model/response that is fatally flawed and could cost us lives, potentially a substantial number on any future outbreak.

once you have a reliable antibody test it doesnt take much of cross section to figure how many people in the population are immune.. you have to remember the entire argument for social distancing is the "lessen the blow".  If you test 1% of the population randomly and find 80% of has already reached immunity.. then social distancing no longer applies.. we already won. 

The funny thing is that having the anitbody test would probably lead to lifting lockdown measures in places like NYC first because the clearly have already spread the virus around its population sufficiently to produce the immune response.

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10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

New cases popping up in Asia. There's only two choices in my mind. Get as many people tested and traced or be ok with it coming back in a real way

Not really sure a massive testing and tracing is even feasible. Might have to rely on testing and tracing for future cases to try to contain with a healthy dose of Social Distancing thrown in as well. Depending on how many actually were infected in the first round will play a big part as you do start seeing a somewhat significant impact on the limiting of spread with the larger number of those that have already contracted it.

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8 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

once you have a reliable antibody test it doesnt take much of cross section to figure how many people in the population are immune.. you have to remember the entire argument for social distancing is the "lessen the blow".  If you test 1% of the population randomly and find 80% of has already reached immunity.. then social distancing no longer applies.. we already won. 

The funny thing is that having the anitbody test would probably lead to lifting lockdown measures in places like NYC first because the clearly have already spread the virus around its population sufficiently to produce the immune response.

There is no evidence that we have even gotten close to herd immunity and this is just speculation. Right now the CDC site estimates about 25% of cases are asymptomatic. Studies (believe them or don’t) show 15-25% asymptomatic). Even if 50% are asymptomatic (I do not believe this but just for sake of argument), then NYC is still less than 1% infected. Herd immunity isn’t happening anytime soon.

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23 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

New cases popping up in Asia. There's only two choices in my mind. Get as many people tested and traced or be ok with it coming back in a real way

A number of countries have gotten this under control with testing and tracing. We waited too long with lockdowns (or really, we didn’t adequately test/trace early) so it’s going to take us a while until we can use test and trace as our mechanism of control.

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not really sure a massive testing and tracing is even feasible. Might have to rely on testing and tracing for future cases to try to contain with a healthy dose of Social Distancing thrown in as well. Depending on how many actually were infected in the first round will play a big part as you do start seeing a somewhat significant impact on the limiting of spread with the larger number of those that have already contracted it.

Define massive because aren't we still under 1% of the population? Feels like a ball dropped to me.

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