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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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58 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

November 2018? That got pretty wild.

That  commute was awful

It took me 2 hours to get home  from work

Usually takes me 25 mins

I got 5 inches from that storm

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12 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

That  commute was awful

It took me 2 hours to get home  from work

Usually takes me 25 mins

I got 5 inches from that storm

That's probably the last really exciting storm we've had 

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Daughter's boss is from Utah. Wanted to know why it was so slow tonight. She said it was because of the snow. He said you've gotta be kidding....as putrid as the last few winters were for snow IMBY, NJ's "harsh" winters are cited as one of the big reasons people want out of here ( the taxes, congestion, foul air and water, and that Jersey charm, are also factors for sure )and yet a guy from Utah didn't even think this amount of snow would have an impact on mall traffic ( but its great for supermarkets ).

 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I flew down to FL today (stuck 90mins extra when the snow started at JFK), so of course this was going to do well for us. ;) 

Good to see a decent event for once this winter. 

You really didn't miss much. It was still solidly in the realm of nuisance event. Some people got to 3 inches. I topped out at about 1.5. And my snow blower malfunctioned. So I'm fine if we're done with snow for awhile.

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That was likely due to the bad forecast.  A ton of people will take off, take public transport, work from home if a snow event is forecast.  When it’s not it gets ugly because everyone goes in and then is driving in it.  12/05/03 and 1/2011 were bad too when we got those unforecast bad front ends of the storms 

Nov 2018 was 2nd worst for me, behind Jan 1987, which was the absolute worst.  Was in grad school at RU and there were literally hundreds of cars abandoned on roads all around the area, as many got stuck for 4+ hours moving just a few miles, all over CNJ.  Storm was underpredicted and hit really hard right after lunch on a Friday.  My commute home was 1/2 mile and it took 30 minutes, partly because I got out of my car a few times to help people who had spun out.  

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14 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Nov 2018 was 2nd worst for me, behind Jan 1987, which was the absolute worst.  Was in grad school at RU and there were literally hundreds of cars abandoned on roads all around the area, as many got stuck for 4+ hours moving just a few miles, all over CNJ.  Storm was underpredicted and hit really hard right after lunch on a Friday.  My commute home was 1/2 mile and it took 30 minutes, partly because I got out of my car a few times to help people who had spun out.  

Jan 87 was brutal. I don't remember the forecast being for that kind of snow. It was whiteout conditions and I drove  my Chevy Monza from the Bell Towers in Piscataway back to Colonia, by following the tail lights in front of me; I knew not to get on 287 so crawled through the back roads til I got to rt 1. My brother was stuck for hours in New Brunswick he worked in the prosecutors' office. A friend abandoned his car on the GSP after digging a trapped motorist out; he walked to a hotel and slept in the lobby. The state police towed his car. It was the worst wall of snow I've ever seen, til Boxing Day, which I watched from the comfort of my couch...

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2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Jan 87 was brutal. I don't remember the forecast being for that kind of snow. It was whiteout conditions and I drove  my Chevy Monza from the Bell Towers in Piscataway back to Colonia, by following the tail lights in front of me; I knew not to get on 287 so crawled through the back roads til I got to rt 1. My brother was stuck for hours in New Brunswick he worked in the prosecutors' office. A friend abandoned his car on the GSP after digging a trapped motorist out; he walked to a hotel and slept in the lobby. The state police towed his car. It was the worst wall of snow I've ever seen, til Boxing Day, which I watched from the comfort of my couch...

The forecast was 1-2 changing to rain in January 87 if I remember right. 

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1.8” of snow out of 0.65 LE here in SW Suffolk. Just some patches of snow left on the colder surfaces following the rain and temperature reaching 40 degrees.

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10 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

2 inches here in Butler, what'd you end up with @rgwp96

The problem with people is that they think their vehicles are snow capable, and they very well might be, but the tires they have are complete garbage.  Most people have no idea how much tires really mean.

2.6 on my picnic table ?  What time Didi u measure ?

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6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The forecast was 1-2 changing to rain in January 87 if I remember right. 

No I went to school anticipating 8-10". Got close to a foot. Fell in about 7 hours

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43 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

I ended up with a touch over 3" after the sleet and rain but it was just shy of 5" of beautiful fluff before the compaction. So sad that we can't get an all snow storm anymore :(

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45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No I went to school anticipating 8-10". Got close to a foot. Fell in about 7 hours

I was completely oblivious in those days, focused on developing my journalism career ( something that was tough even then ) and fishing and writing about it; I had a temp job in the mailroom at AT&T; before the gig economy free lancers made do by working temp jobs. Went to work unaware of what was about to happen; 1/4 tank of gas, one of the worst cars ever built ( a 79 Monza )no boots, no shovel, no salt, no winter gear. Lucky I made it home.

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Finished 3.75" here.

 

Other than north shore LI doing a bit better than expected, generally feel good about how the event unfolded relative to expectations.

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On 1/18/2020 at 8:55 AM, Allsnow said:

Final call 

KNYC 2

KEWR 3

KLGA 1.5

KJFK .9

KBDR 4 

Actual.

Knyc 2.1

Kewr 1.8

Klga 1.9

kjfk  1.6

Kbdr 2.5

 

Not a bad forecast for this storm. I was too high at ewr (lull hurt) and too low for Long Island (no lull) I wish they could all go this well lol 

 

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2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

10:30pm, when I got home from work.

Ok could have been whi as we went to sleet and zr around 7

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Good Sunday evening everyone,  The NOHRSC snowfall map for yesterdays 7 hour south-southwest surface flow event is appended.  It suggests ensembles are useful...  with what I think are the usual mesoscale enhancements-suppressions that for me are impossible to be sure about more than a couple of hours in advance. 

You can compare this to the ensemble predictions for 3 and 4" as posted on prior days.  

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-19 at 4.43.14 PM.png

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On 1/18/2020 at 8:10 PM, HVSnowLover said:

No matter WHAT the setup is LI always seems to do better than the city, its pretty crazy especially for a storm like this with SE winds.

It doesn't always do better.  However, the north shore of Suffolk County is anywhere from 8 to 25 miles farther north than central park and a SE surface flow is coming over land for up to 25 miles.  That and a lot less UHI, I'd expect average annual snowfall to be higher here.    But there's always going to be the March 1914's and December 2005's (among others) to break our hearts.  I haven't gotten over 1914 yet :oldman:

 

Orient Point isn't a good example because it is very much maritime, but as the farthest north part of LI, it is farther north than West Milford (NJ), New City (Rockland), Armonk (Westchester) and New Canaan (CT).  In some setups, that matters more.

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On 1/21/2020 at 6:24 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

It doesn't always do better.  However, the north shore of Suffolk County is anywhere from 8 to 25 miles farther north than central park and a SE surface flow is coming over land for up to 25 miles.  That and a lot less UHI, I'd expect average annual snowfall to be higher here.    But there's always going to be the March 1914's and December 2005's (among others) to break our hearts.  I haven't gotten over 1914 yet :oldman:

 

Orient Point isn't a good example because it is very much maritime, but as the farthest north part of LI, it is farther north than West Milford (NJ), New City (Rockland), Armonk (Westchester) and New Canaan (CT).  In some setups, that matters more.

One also needs to consider the semirural nature of eastern Suffolk County.  It's why you guys do better in March than we do out here in western Nassau.

 

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On 1/21/2020 at 6:24 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

It doesn't always do better.  However, the north shore of Suffolk County is anywhere from 8 to 25 miles farther north than central park and a SE surface flow is coming over land for up to 25 miles.  That and a lot less UHI, I'd expect average annual snowfall to be higher here.    But there's always going to be the March 1914's and December 2005's (among others) to break our hearts.  I haven't gotten over 1914 yet :oldman:

 

Orient Point isn't a good example because it is very much maritime, but as the farthest north part of LI, it is farther north than West Milford (NJ), New City (Rockland), Armonk (Westchester) and New Canaan (CT).  In some setups, that matters more.

What happened in March 1914?  Did SW Nassau get snowholed that time too? LMAO

 

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On 1/21/2020 at 6:24 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

It doesn't always do better.  However, the north shore of Suffolk County is anywhere from 8 to 25 miles farther north than central park and a SE surface flow is coming over land for up to 25 miles.  That and a lot less UHI, I'd expect average annual snowfall to be higher here.    But there's always going to be the March 1914's and December 2005's (among others) to break our hearts.  I haven't gotten over 1914 yet :oldman:

 

Orient Point isn't a good example because it is very much maritime, but as the farthest north part of LI, it is farther north than West Milford (NJ), New City (Rockland), Armonk (Westchester) and New Canaan (CT).  In some setups, that matters more.

Orient observer reported 30" in the Jan 2015 storm!  I got that in the Jan 2016 storm :-P

 

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