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Severe threat Jan 10-11

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread across the Mid South and
   central Gulf States today. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
   possible. Localized damaging-wind threat will be noted with
   convection across the Ohio Valley and Middle Atlantic.

   ...Discussion...

   Intense 500mb speed max is translating through the base of a strong
   short-wave trough over the southern Plains late this evening. This
   feature should become negatively tilted during the day as flow
   increases to near 120kt at 500mb over the OH Valley by early
   evening. In response to this feature, primary surface low will track
   along a polar front along the OH River into southeast IN. This
   should allow modified warm sector to surge ahead of the front into
   portions of the OH Valley. Even so, forecast soundings north of the
   TN Valley do not exhibit much instability, and convection that
   evolves ahead of the strongly-forced short wave should struggle to
   produce lightning. Will maintain low severe probs for locally
   damaging winds ahead of the intense speed max.

   Of more concern will be convection that is ongoing at the start of
   the period along a strong front near the MS River. Late this
   evening, a well-organized squall line was advancing east across
   AR/east TX toward LA. This activity is handled well by 00z model
   guidance which surges a squall line into western MS by the start of
   the day1 period. Earlier thoughts regarding this convective scenario
   remain. Strongly sheared linear MCS is expected to advance across
   the central Gulf States during the first half of the period.
   Environmental shear strongly favors supercells but the primary
   convective mode should be linear along a strongly forced boundary.
   Damaging winds are the primary threat with this activity, though
   embedded circulations could pose some tornado threat. It's not
   entirely clear how much pre-frontal discrete convection will develop
   due to limited heating. Even so, surface dew points rising into the
   upper 60s should be adequate for surface-based supercells. Given the
   forecast shear, tornadoes are certainly possible, especially if
   discrete convection can develop ahead of the squall line.

   Downstream across the Middle Atlantic, increasing southerly flow
   will allow boundary-layer moisture to advance north across the
   Carolinas into VA where 60s surface dew points are expected during
   the overnight hours. While warm advection will undoubtedly encourage
   showers across this region, the primary large-scale forcing will
   spread across the OH Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic.
   Forecast soundings suggest modest lapse rates which do not allow for
   meaningful instability to materialize across this region. Despite
   the strengthening wind fields, will opt to maintain 5% severe probs
   due to weaker forcing and meager buoyancy.

   ..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/11/2020

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So far today in Ooltewah it's been breezy and warm. Current temp at our house is showing 74*. Clouds are getting a little darker. We had maybe a 5 minute light rain shower early this morning. I took the opportunity to wash my wife's car and organize the garage. All outdoor cushions and umbrella have been put away so now we just sit back and wait. Having a cold Modelo and waiting for football and the storms. Good luck to everyone if it does get severe in your area. Be safe.

 

 

Edit to add: Temp has now dropped to 71* at our house. Not that it means anything but it was 3* drop in 30 minutes

 

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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Lots of trees down in my neighborhood.  Power is out reportedly to 8,000 in this area including mine.  I suspect we clocked in over 95-100mph.  Started filming the event and had to run in the house and get everyone downstairs when it became apparent this was not your average severe line.  House across the way has a tree on it.  Heard there were multiple accidents on the interstate.  Total mess in my area. 

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What is weird is the footage I have has the wind howling behind the tree but the tree barely moving.  That tree was downwind of some old stuff that sheltered it.  The winds were cutting between two houses and blowing behind it.  Pretty wild to look at.

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Lots of trees down in my neighborhood.  Power is out reportedly to 8,000 in this area including mine.  I suspect we clocked in over 95-100mph.  Started filming the event and had to run in the house and get everyone downstairs when it became apparent this was not your average severe line.  House across the way has a tree on it.  Heard there were multiple accidents on the interstate.  Total mess in my area. 


I had to stop off side of road on 11W between Bristol and Kingsport. Intense but quick burst of wind.
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57 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

I had to stop off side of road on 11W between Bristol and Kingsport. Intense but quick burst of wind.

 

Wow!  Lots of people without power.  Not epic proportions, but it was almost instantaneous.  The wind hit and it went down immediately.  Kudos to MRX for advertising this in advance.  I will try to get some pics up tomorrow.  We have house with a tree that landed on it, and some trees on the golf course that have gone down.  

585925288_ScreenShot2020-01-11at11_29_42PM.png.8fc10c25a70a6a428819c450f556f8ac.png

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Here in Mosheim we got hit hard and fast, winds were ferocious for about ten minutes then just heavy rain.  Was without power for about a hour and half 

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On 1/11/2020 at 10:26 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Going to head out and see if the power trucks are working our neighborhood.

Late posting, but yes we lost power last night for about four hours here in the Kingsport area. Pretty nasty storm!

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Porch chase Saturday, January 11, 2020: East Brainerd, Chattanooga, Tenn.

Friday evening I noticed actual and forecast soundings still lacked low-level CAPE. The skinny mid-level CAPE would have been plenty with more low level push. Frontal lift is just forced, and gives that squall line. More low-level CAPE would have given convective push for a broken line. Then I saw videos from Texas of the lowest contrast Dixie slop one can imagine. Decided not to chase Saturday.

Saturday morning I awoke to a chase partner discussing an outing to North Alabama. I encouraged him like I believe is the right thing to do, but reiterated my plan to stay home and watch sports on TV all day. He had one other; so, I felt OK encouraging him not solo. He started to reel in his target to Lookout Mtn. I reminded him if he's going out, he might as well go all the way to Sand Mountain. The latter is flatter, bigger, and has lots of agriculture - which means fewer trees up top. Indeed tornado warnings were issued from Cullman Co. northeast.

Meanwhile back in Chattanooga Kansas hoops was laying an egg at home so I switched to Weather Nation via Roku TV. Sling has zero weather. Then when it got real locally over-the-air TV for coverage was appropriate. Goodness I felt like I'm back in Wichita waiting to get slammed!

I was tempted to drive 10-15 minutes to either US Express or Costco because either place has excellent visibility. Tornado warning went up for Soddy Daisy; so, maybe I could see that at at distance from US Express. Another area of weak rotation was approaching Ringgold; and, one can see a little bit at one of the I-75 exits. Costco was removed from the list, sitting between areas of interest.

NFL Playoff started so I stayed home. Usually indecision is not rewarded well. In this case, the porch chase was a gem!

High winds to 60 mph buffet the house. A few minutes prior I am pleasantly surprised at how much one can see through trees in the winter. I know that from watching sunsets, but had to remember for severe. No real shelfie, so I was glad I did not go to another spot for nothing. However the clouds are ominous and exciting. It gets dark and one can see the flat rain look behind the leading edge of angry rolling clouds. Occasional CG flashes bright with booming thunder.

As low clouds race from south to north the wind picks up markedly. Sheets of rain about two blocks away rush from my left to right, looking west. Lightning thunder flash boom! The curtain of wind blown rain approaches quickly, but I can discern it enveloping each house and group of trees. Some sheets of rain are separated while the wall rapidly advances at me. Rain is horizontal as it sweeps over my home and locations. It slams against south-facing windows. 

I get to a north-facing window. Yeah center of the house is what we preach. Wind whips between the houses like TWC hurricane videos. Probably 60 mph this case but only for a couple minutes. A couple more CG strokes are vivid with sharp cracks of loud thunder. Trees sway but not like they would with leaves. Torrential rain continues along with 40-50 mph winds another 5 minutes. Wind dies down but occasional CG and thunder continue.

About 2 hours later moderate rain ends with an orange sunset and rainbow. That my friends, is so Great Plains!

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