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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change


donsutherland1
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2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

So great to see young professional Meteorologists getting time on major networks to help start to turn the tide on the old climate alarmist fake narratives on simple cyclical weather events!!image.thumb.jpeg.30bf481bad0dcad9da5a3834e94f1a89.jpeg

 

 Hey Chesco,

 Maybe so. That was a disaster waiting to happen even without CC. We’ll never know for sure about the possible influence of CC on this terrible incident as well as on many other specific incidents. But CC/GW has meant ~ a 7% increase in moisture held in the air per degree C increase. So, CC does make these incidents of very heavy rains within a fairly short period more frequent overall worldwide than before.

 Tropical systems, themselves, have on average gotten slightly wetter. Another thing CC has apparently caused is a slight slowdown of average steering winds due to a lowered contrast of the temperature gradient between the tropics and Arctic. Thus, the slightly slower avg movement of slightly wetter tropical systems means more frequent extreme rainfall events from tropical systems.

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6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Hey Chesco,

 Maybe so. That was a disaster waiting to happen even without CC. We’ll never know for sure about the possible influence of CC on this terrible incident as well as on many other specific incidents. But CC/GW has meant ~ a 7% increase in moisture held in the air per degree C increase. So, CC does make these incidents of very heavy rains within a fairly short period more frequent overall worldwide than before.

 Tropical systems, themselves, have on average gotten slightly wetter. Another thing CC has apparently caused is a slight slowdown of average steering winds due to a lowered contrast of the temperature gradient between the tropics and Arctic. Thus, the slightly slower avg movement of slightly wetter tropical systems means more frequent extreme rainfall events from tropical systems.

Yes, climate science predicted decades ago that the increase in precipitation due to climate change would be focused in the heaviest events and that is exactly what we are seeing. Extreme rain events are increasing much faster than precipitation as a whole. Climate change doesn't cause any one single event; but it makes individual cases worse and extreme events much more likely.

https://iacweb.ethz.ch/staff/fischer/download/etc/fischer_knutti_16.pdf

https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/update-on-texas-flooding

 

Heavy_Rain.jpg

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8 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

So great to see young professional Meteorologists getting time on major networks to help start to turn the tide on the old climate alarmist fake narratives on simple cyclical weather events!!image.thumb.jpeg.30bf481bad0dcad9da5a3834e94f1a89.jpeg

 

Paid. END. OF. STORY. This is dangerous, and the exact reason people die needlessly. It’s simple physics….

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More extreme heavy rainfall leading to record flooding is the result of the record increasing atmospheric moisture content as the world continues to warm.

 

https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-copernicus-climate-change-service-tracks-record-atmospheric-moisture-and-sea

Water vapour: the invisible amplifier of global warming 

In 2024 the atmosphere held more moisture than previously recorded by a large margin. Total column water vapour—the total amount of moisture in a vertical column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere—reached 4.9% above the 1991–2020 average, far surpassing previous highs in 2016 (3.4%) and 2023 (3.3%). 

Water vapour is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas, responsible for about half of the planet’s natural greenhouse effect. Unlike other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH4), the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere is not directly influenced by human activities. However, water vapour concentration rises as the atmosphere warms: for every 1°C increase in atmospheric temperature, air can hold 7% more moisture. This creates a vicious cycle—warmer air absorbs more vapour, which traps more heat, further accelerating warming.   

 

 

A bar chart with brown and blue bars representing annual anomalies in total column water vapor from 1992 to 2024. Negative anomalies (brown) dominate the early years, while positive anomalies (blue) increase in frequency and intensity after 2000. The highest anomaly appears in 2024 with a dark blue bar. Logos of the European Union, Copernicus, and ECMWF are at the bottom.Annual anomalies in the average amount of total column water vapour over the 60°S–60°N domain relative to the average for the 1992–2020 reference period. The anomalies are expressed as a percentage of the 1992–2020 average. Data: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. 

 

 

“Water vapour is both a consequence and a driver of climate change,” explains C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “In 2024, we saw this feedback loop in ‘overdrive’. Higher sea surface temperatures intensified evaporation, whilst warmer atmosphere allowed more water to be held there as vapour, adding ‘fuel’ to several extreme weather events.”   

The consequences are potentially disastrous. Increased atmospheric moisture can intensify storms and increase the intensity of the most extreme rainfall. The atmosphere knows no borders, so the potential effects are global.

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6 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Below is precipitable water anomaly for this summer and the 1991-2020 normal. Here in  PA the atmosphere has had roughly 15% more moisture than normal this summer. 

moisture.gif

normalmoisture.gif

Good post. Warmer air holds more moisture. Doesn't mean it will fall as rain but certainly supercharges any storm that can tap into that moisture.  Just anecdotally, total precipitation locally hasn't been super crazy. But there have been a number of flash flood events around the region with some of these heavy, slow-moving thunderstorms.

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9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Hey Chesco,

 Maybe so. That was a disaster waiting to happen even without CC. We’ll never know for sure about the possible influence of CC on this terrible incident as well as on many other specific incidents. But CC/GW has meant ~ a 7% increase in moisture held in the air per degree C increase. So, CC does make these incidents of very heavy rains within a fairly short period more frequent overall worldwide than before.

 Tropical systems, themselves, have on average gotten slightly wetter. Another thing CC has apparently caused is a slight slowdown of average steering winds due to a lowered contrast of the temperature gradient between the tropics and Arctic. Thus, the slightly slower avg movement of slightly wetter tropical systems means more frequent extreme rainfall events from tropical systems.

Zero evidence that any small impacts of our current warming climate change cycle has led to any disasters anywhere in the world!

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