Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 This won’t be a popular take here, but I think articles like this do more harm than good as regards believability regarding the affects of CC in general. It has a sensationalist, “Day After Tomorrow” tone to it imho. This isn’t the way to convince nonbelievers.

 Some of the words/phrases used in the article were these:

catastrophic, catastrophic ripples, devastating consequences, alarming, catastrophic global consequences, catastrophic outcome for all humanity

  I think that articles like this do more harm than good. And I’m saying this as one who’s extra concerned about sea level rise and stronger hurricanes being that I’m not far from the coast.

Not sure I agree here...  We ARE in a catastrophe, a slow moving one.  Too slow to be seen in what we call "real time", or human perception, but that slowness only beguiles us into a false sense of lessening urgency.

Don and I ( and any others et al) have been discussing about the limitations in the biology of all Terran life ( for that matter -): for all species, urgency is aroused by what their senses are telling them.  Human beings, as far as can be empirically tested, are the only life forms on this planet capable of prognosticating doom or boon based upon projection.  But we still procrastinate, if not outright disregard those forecasts when the evidences are not directly appealing as such. You know ... what can be seen, heard, smell, tasted., or touched.   The tree does fall in the woods whether anyone is around to see it happen or not, and in this case... it's particularly bad because the proverbial tree is falling right in front of us, yet is unseen.

But it's still falling 

 

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow the EU is even worse than the US, what's going on there?

 

 

[ChescoWx]

On 10/12/2025 at 1:40 PM, Cobalt said:

Since the start of this supposed cyclical cooling cycle the CONUS has seen its 3rd warmest March-August period in 131 years. September data isn't in yet but I'd assume that it will bump that ranking even higher.

LOL! wonder why he chose to include only March to August?? plus it is of course altered adjusted data which we dismiss!

[ChescoWx]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure I agree here...  We ARE in a catastrophe, a slow moving one.  Too slow to be seen in what we call "real time", or human perception, but that slowness only beguiles us into a false sense of lessening urgency.

Don and I ( and any others et al) have been discussing about the limitations in the biology of all Terran life ( for that matter -): for all species, urgency is aroused by what their senses are telling them.  Human beings, as far as can be empirically tested, are the only life forms on this planet capable of prognosticating doom or boon based upon projection.  But we still procrastinate, if not outright disregard those forecasts when the evidences are not directly appealing as such. You know ... what can be seen, heard, smell, tasted., or touched.   The tree does fall in the woods whether anyone is around to see it happen or not, and in this case... it's particularly bad because the proverbial tree is falling right in front of us, yet is unseen.

But it's still falling 

 

Sky is falling sky is falling.....no one believes our cyclical climate change is an issue anymore. But a lot of folks on here sure do!! Fortunately the younger generation has caught on to the grift and is finally starting to see the "science" for what it has become.

[ChescoWx]

Below is the slow moving catastrophe here in Chester County....can you smell the fear in the air.....temperature? At this rate we might be burning up with an average temperature of 56.3 degrees in another 100 years!!

[Cobalt]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

LOL! wonder why he chose to include only March to August??

Because you claimed the "cooling period" started in January and February, so I wanted to roll forward that "cooling period" to the months afterwards, but I couldn't find it. 

 

To answer your question from February (where you chose to only include a map from January through February 21st)

On 2/22/2025 at 10:43 AM, ChescoWx said:

Is this the start of our next cyclical climate change cycle of a turn to colder?

 

No, it is not.

[ChescoWx]

44 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Because you claimed the "cooling period" started in January and February, so I wanted to roll forward that "cooling period" to the months afterwards, but I couldn't find it. 

 

To answer your question from February (where you chose to only include a map from January through February 21st)

 

No, it is not.

 

Check the above slow moving catastrophic warming here in Chester County PA during our current warming cycle.....so scary!!

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Below is the slow moving catastrophe here in Chester County....can you smell the fear in the air.....temperature? At this rate we might be burning up with an average temperature of 56.3 degrees in another 100 years!!

By the way - for more of this kind of actual real non-adjusted climate data for Chester County come visit the #1 website for all things Chester County climate with updated content still in progress over at https://chescowx.com/

Hopefully it will help allay the climate fear running rampant on this site.   Enjoy!

[Cobalt]

45 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Check the above slow moving catastrophic warming here in Chester County PA during our current warming cycle.....so scary!!

This is entirely unrelated to the discussion we were having above.

 

I’ll ask the question again. Why did you call me out for “only including” a timespan from March to August when it was in response to you posting a map that only included January and February data?
 

Why are you redirecting the conversation from national data to just specifically Chester County in the first place? 

[chubbs]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Below is the slow moving catastrophe here in Chester County....can you smell the fear in the air.....temperature? At this rate we might be burning up with an average temperature of 56.3 degrees in another 100 years!!

Not even close to being right. You are cherry-picking the data you like, the temperature values,  and ignoring the rest of the information associated with the raw data: the station locations, the station moves, and the relative temperature between stations. Easy to spot the station moves and other major changes by tracking changes in the relative warmth of the Chesco stations. Its well proven science.

That's why NOAA's results are different than yours. I get very similar results to NOAA by using the raw data at West Chester (before move) and Coatesville (after move) and avoiding the station moves. We saw in the other thread that  the individual station data agrees with NOAA. Why wouldn't it? NOAA uses all the information and well proven science.

[ChescoWx]

40 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

This is entirely unrelated to the discussion we were having above.

 

I’ll ask the question again. Why did you call me out for “only including” a timespan from March to August when it was in response to you posting a map that only included January and February data?
 

Why are you redirecting the conversation from national data to just specifically Chester County in the first place? 

That climate fence around Chester County PA must be really strong......LOL!

[ChescoWx]

21 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Not even close to being right. You are cherry-picking the data you like, the temperature values,  and ignoring the rest of the information associated with the raw data: the station locations, the station moves, and the relative temperature between stations. Easy to spot the station moves and other major changes by tracking changes in the relative warmth of the Chesco stations. Its well proven science.

That's why NOAA's results are different than yours. I get very similar results to NOAA by using the raw data at West Chester (before move) and Coatesville (after move) and avoiding the station moves. We saw in the other thread that  the individual station data agrees with NOAA. Why wouldn't it? NOAA uses all the information and well proven science.

As always zero support for the post hoc cooling adjustments for 89 straight years....and now overall warming adjustment to recent years.

[Cobalt]

15 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

That climate fence around Chester County PA must be really strong......LOL!

It’s not a difficult question to answer

58 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Why did you call me out for “only including” a timespan from March to August when it was in response to you posting a map that only included January and February data?

 

[ChescoWx]

6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

It’s not a difficult question to answer

 

What's your question? Is the next cooling cycle beginning??? We don't have complete data for this year or decade yet so let's see!!

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

As always zero support for the post hoc cooling adjustments for 89 straight years....and now overall warming adjustment to recent years.

The only adjustment to the West Chester and Coatesville raw data is to take out the temperature difference between the two stations by setting 1950 to zero. The year-to-year change in temperature is exactly what the raw data shows at Coatesville and West Chester. A little over 4F warming between 1894 and present, the same as NOAA. Like I said above you are not even close to what the raw data is showing. 

Below is a comparison of individual stations to NOAA, excluding station moves of course. The agreement is very good both recently and before the major station moves.. If anything NOAA is underestimating the recent warming in Chester County. Why don't you provide the equivalent trend values for your Chesco average so we can see how you stack up.

 

 

[Hazey]

 I see we have reached the old "well i ain't doing shit because/until all these other places start doing shit' excuse. I don't know about you all but i don't let my property go to crap because my neighbor lets his get unsightly. Usually you double down and keep your place extra tidy to hopefully shame/embarrass the neighbor into doing the same. That's what needs to happen on global scale. Probably won't matter at this point anyway but at least we say we went down swinging.

For those who dismiss CC or are not convinced of it, I might have good news. Depending on how oceanic currents break down and where one resides on the planet, your climate might actually get better....for a while.  Maybe you dislike winter cold or you live in a rainy area that might dry out or a dry area might become more moist. A rare case where you get the lemonade and then you get the lemons.  

[ChescoWx]

14 minutes ago, chubbs said:

The only adjustment to the West Chester and Coatesville raw data is to take out the temperature difference between the two stations by setting 1950 to zero. The year-to-year change in temperature is exactly what the raw data shows. A little over 4F warming exactly the same as NOAA. Like I said above you are not even close to what the raw data is showing. 

Below is a comparison of individual stations to NOAA, excluding station moves of course. The agreement is very good. If anything NOAA is underestimating the recent warming in Chester County. Why don't you provide the equivalent trend values for your Chesco average so we can see how you stack up.

 

 

Now how about we show the real pattern of the NOAA adjustments....wonder why we chill the past and warm the present???

[ChescoWx]

8 minutes ago, Hazey said:

 I see we have reached the old "well i ain't doing shit because/until all these other places start doing shit' excuse. I don't know about you all but i don't let my property go to crap because my neighbor lets his get unsightly. Usually you double down and keep your place extra tidy to hopefully shame/embarrass the neighbor into doing the same. That's what needs to happen on global scale. Probably won't matter at this point anyway but at least we say we went down swinging.

For those who dismiss CC or are not convinced of it, I might have good news. Depending on how oceanic currents break down and where one resides on the planet, your climate might actually get better....for a while.  Maybe you dislike winter cold or you live in a rainy area that might dry out or a dry area might become more moist. A rare case where you get the lemonade and then you get the lemons.  

We should do all we can to protect our planet....but we should not encourage delusions and altered realities that somehow man is going to change the future cyclical climate we have always experienced since the dawn of time. We should not encourage or feed such fantasies!

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

What's your question? Is the next cooling cycle beginning??? We don't have complete data for this year or decade yet so let's see!!

this is the question

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Why did you call me out for “only including” a timespan from March to August when it was in response to you posting a map that only included January and February data?

 

[chubbs]

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Now how about we show the real pattern of the NOAA adjustments....wonder why we chill the past and warm the present???

Those aren't NOAA's adjustments. Looks like the difference between your results and NOAA's. The table below, which you are ignoring, shows that NOAA agrees very well with the raw data when station moves are excluded.  So they are your adjustments not NOAA's.

Adjustments are needed in Chester County because of all the station moves and other station changes. Every time we've looked at a station move, NOAA has been spot on in adjusting the station data. You haven't identified a single station adjustment that isn't warranted.