Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

[ChescoWx]

8 minutes ago, chubbs said:

As usual your post is BS with no raw data provided.  Per table below, the only stations in the county with long-term data are West Chester, Coatesville and Phoenixville. The main source of bias in these three stations are the station moves at Coatesville and West Chester. Remove the station moves and the three stations provide the only low-bias raw data that spans the entire period. Funny that you don't like raw data when it shows warming.

We've only had one set of weather in Chester County. Any stations without biasing station changes will be in close agreement. No chance of a different non-biased dataset erasing the warming seen at West Chester, Coatesville and Phoenixville. Certainly not the small amount of pre-2010 data outside the big 3.

Unlike the big 3, The other stations in the table have short records, don't span the entire period when combined, and are inconsistent: The earliest stations were coops in towns, while the most recent stations are mainly non-coops in parks. The only thing you are getting from the added stations is bias. You are averaging warm stations early and cooler stations more recently. No wonder you can't find the local warming.

 

If not for the ghost data there is no warming to be found...52 of 53 years of fake chill applied to the raw/actual readings that is the only way you can find signs of local warming in Chester County.

[CAPE]

On 5/29/2025 at 5:30 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

there is no altered data..  stop it.  

Why do y'all bother to engage this anti-science MAGAt? Futile. These people are unfixable. Ignore and move on.

[ChescoWx]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Why do y'all bother to engage this anti-science MAGAt? Futile. These people are unfixable. Ignore and move on.

you sound.....nice. Facts over feelings that is all I present.

[rcostell]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

The extremists and climate myth believers are no doubt...displeased with the rising tide of folks who now have come to realization that climate change is of course a nothing burger.

So what is your position on Climate change- is it "Cyclical" or "a nothing burger"?   Does it change? Is the larger trend warmer? No? Is there life beyond Chester County?  I just got back from Valais Canton in Switzerland. I can assure you that the people who used to live in the village of Blatten, after the glacier collapse do not think that a warming climate is a "nothing burger".   ...and thats a fact.    

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, rcostell said:

So what is your position on Climate change- is it "Cyclical" or "a nothing burger"? a cyclical nothing burger   Does it change? climate is always changing Is the larger trend warmer? we are in a current warmer cycle No? Is there life beyond Chester County? Is there a climate wall around Chester County?  I just got back from Valais Canton in Switzerland. I can assure you that the people who used to live in the village of Blatten, after the glacier collapse do not think that a warming climate is a "nothing burger".   ...and thats a fact.  This has happened before and will happen again the reason as is usually the case in Alpine glacier collapses is the destabilized mountain rock.....

See answers above

[ChescoWx]

The "man made" adjusted chilled data is in red.....the actual raw data is in blue. The below is documented proof that man does impact our climate.

[rcostell]

19 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

See answers above

Here's the thoughts on the causal mechanism.   The Swiss live in concert with glaciers, rockfall and permafrost. I too, have seen these landscapes rapidly changing in places I've visited such as the Central and Northern Rockies, Austrian and Swiss Alps, Norwegian Alps, Dolomites and Iceland. The changes there are accelerating as one can readily see and in talking with the locals- you don't need a lot of data to understand what is going on.  They are huge and macro in nature.  I'd ask that Dyou do a little reading on glaciology and get familiar with this science before you readily use the words "nothing burger".   Maybe in a small county in Pa.  according to your rightly disputed charts- but to throw that opinion around conflicts with observed real life.  I hope you can realize that.  

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-causes-glaciers-to-collapse-like-the-event-that-buried-a-swiss-village/#:~:text=The glacier's collapse and the,the past couple of weeks.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, rcostell said:

Here's the thoughts on the causal mechanism.   The Swiss live in concert with glaciers, rockfall and permafrost. I too, have seen these landscapes rapidly changing in places I've visited such as the Central and Northern Rockies, Austrian and Swiss Alps, Norwegian Alps, Dolomites and Iceland. The changes there are accelerating as one can readily see and in talking with the locals- you don't need a lot of data to understand what is going on.  They are huge and macro in nature.  I'd ask that Dyou do a little reading on glaciology and get familiar with this science before you readily use the words "nothing burger".   Maybe in a small county in Pa.  according to your rightly disputed charts- but to throw that opinion around conflicts with observed real life.  I hope you can realize that.  

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-causes-glaciers-to-collapse-like-the-event-that-buried-a-swiss-village/#:~:text=The glacier's collapse and the,the past couple of weeks.

They're going to have a big problem with fresh water supplies if they aren't already.  And throughout Europe.

[rcostell]

22 hours ago, rcostell said:

Here's the thoughts on the causal mechanism.   The Swiss live in concert with glaciers, rockfall and permafrost. I too, have seen these landscapes rapidly changing in places I've visited such as the Central and Northern Rockies, Austrian and Swiss Alps, Norwegian Alps, Dolomites and Iceland. The changes there are accelerating as one can readily see and in talking with the locals- you don't need a lot of data to understand what is going on.  They are huge and macro in nature.  I'd ask that Dyou do a little reading on glaciology and get familiar with this science before you readily use the words "nothing burger".   Maybe in a small county in Pa.  according to your rightly disputed charts- but to throw that opinion around conflicts with observed real life.  I hope you can realize that.  

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-causes-glaciers-to-collapse-like-the-event-that-buried-a-swiss-village/#:~:text=The glacier's collapse and the,the past couple of weeks.

To amplify further- coincidentally, this mutinational (10 nations, many scientists)  study just released details the rapidly declining glacial trend and causal mechanisms. Effects of this trend alone will be significant to the human populace near or dependant on glaciers or the bodies of water they drain into- including the Oceans.

https://www.uaf.edu/news/study-finds-alaska-rest-of-earth-to-lose-most-of-glacier-mass.php

[ChescoWx]

Funny how even the entire USA needed to be chilled back in the 1930's thru 1950's. There appears to have been no warming at all during the month of May during the last 100 years....welp unless we you know chill the past data. See the below altered May data vs the raw.....same story not just in Chester County PA

[ChescoWx]

Just now, ChescoWx said:

Funny how even the entire USA needed to be chilled back in the 1930's thru 1950's. There appears to have been no warming at all during the month of May during the last 100 years....welp unless we you know chill the past data. See the below altered May data vs the raw.....same story not just in Chester County PA

 

 

And now voila we have the altered data....now there is that warming post chilling alterations!!

[ChescoWx]

From Meteorologist Mark Margavage "FYI, it reliably hit 100° at least once in a summer every 10-15 years at KAVP for the entire 20th Century up until July 1995, which is the last time the 100° mark was observed in NEPA. It has not hit 100° here in almost 30 years. How does that fit within the catastrophic Global Warming Narrative? It doesn’t."  "Let the countdown begin!  We are 1 month and 10 days away from from the 30-year anniversary of the last time the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Area (KAVP) saw a 100°F air temperature. If we make it to July 15th without seeing 100°, we will have to face the reality that 100° temperatures in NEPA might just be a thing of the past…. At the very least, their frequency has not increased over the last 30 years."

[chubbs]

On 6/3/2025 at 4:49 PM, ChescoWx said:

Funny how even the entire USA needed to be chilled back in the 1930's thru 1950's. There appears to have been no warming at all during the month of May during the last 100 years....welp unless we you know chill the past data. See the below altered May data vs the raw.....same story not just in Chester County PA

Shewchuk is telling us something we already know: raw COOP data in the US is biased. We've known this for decades. Deniers have been making the same complaint for decades; but they haven't provided a single document in a scientific forum to back up their claims. As we have found out in Chester County, NOAA's adjustments are completely justified. Stations moved, sensors/shelters ran warm, etc. Every time we checked, the raw data at nearby stations verified the adjustment. At this point you might as well complain that the sky is blue or the world is round.

[chubbs]

A reminder that adjustments to temperatures in the US, 6% of the world, don't matter. 

https://x.com/RARohde/status/1779044943501152416

[GaWx]

Yesterday from Joe D’Aleo at WxBell:
 

“Ocean(s) in transition?

The SSTA last 30 days (-15 to +15C)

Comparing 2025 to 2024:

January to May 2024 vs 2025:

Is this the start of a transition back to a negative AMO? The ocean changes modes on a multi-decadal cycle - 30 years of a positive this cycle followed a cold of 30 years, which followed 40 years of warm, which followed what appears 25 years of cold.

The cold AMO/NAO/AO favors colder (US) regardless of ENSO.”

[chubbs]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yesterday from Joe D’Aleo at WxBell:
 

“Ocean(s) in transition?

The SSTA last 30 days (-15 to +15C)

Comparing 2025 to 2024:

January to May 2024 vs 2025:

Is this the start of a transition back to a negative AMO? The ocean changes modes on a multi-decadal cycle - 30 years of a positive this cycle followed a cold of 30 years, which followed 40 years of warm, which followed what appears 25 years of cold.

The cold AMO/NAO/AO favors colder (US) regardless of ENSO.”

What I would expect coming out of a nino. The ocean is cooling overall and the warm anomalies are migrating away from the tropics.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

Shewchuk is telling us something we already know: raw COOP data in the US is biased. We've known this for decades. Deniers have been making the same complaint for decades; but they haven't provided a single document in a scientific forum to back up their claims. As we have found out in Chester County, NOAA's adjustments are completely justified. Stations moved, sensors/shelters ran warm, etc. Every time we checked, the raw data at nearby stations verified the adjustment. At this point you might as well complain that the sky is blue or the world is round.

No thats not all of it, climate change doesn't mean higher highs here in the northeast, at least in the areas where we live.  It's not about *sensors running warmer* I lived through the 1991, 1993, 1999, 2002 great summers when we had 100 degree days.  I measured the heat myself and it was more excessive than what we see now.   Cities like PHL, NYC, JFK are on record lack of 100 day streaks now.  It's because *climate change* does not mean *global warming* not every place is experiencing higher temperatures, especially higher maxima.  In the winter sure, it's getting warmer, but the summer-- not so much.  The averages are getting somewhat higher yes, but that is driven by higher minima, extreme heat is being blunted by more rainfall.  You can see this with how heatwaves are much shorter than they were back in the period I referenced, with drier hotter summers in the 90s up to 2002 we had much longer heatwaves.  2002 was our last summer with two 7+ day heatwaves and we have not seen 100 degrees here since 2013, and this record applies to all three cities.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No thats not all of it, climate change doesn't mean higher highs here in the northeast, at least in the areas where we live.  It's not about *sensors running warmer* I lived through the 1991, 1993, 1999, 2002 great summers when we had 100 degree days.  I measured the heat myself and it was more excessive than what we see now.   Cities like PHL, NYC, JFK are on record lack of 100 day streaks now.  It's because *climate change* does not mean *global warming* not every place is experiencing higher temperatures, especially higher maxima.  In the winter sure, it's getting warmer, but the summer-- not so much.  The averages are getting somewhat higher yes, but that is driven by higher minima, extreme heat is being blunted by more rainfall.  You can see this with how heatwaves are much shorter than they were back in the period I referenced, with drier hotter summers in the 90s up to 2002 we had much longer heatwaves.  2002 was our last summer with two 7+ day heatwaves and we have not seen 100 degrees here since 2013, and this record applies to all three cities.

 

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

 

Longest Heat Waves - 90 degrees + in a row (through March 10)
Days	Dates	Temperatures
12	August 24 - Sept 4, 1953	91,91,91,94,98,99,98,100,97,102,94,90
11	July 23 - August 2, 1999	92,97,97,93,96,97,93,92,90,98,90
10	July 7 - 16, 1993 August 4 - 13, 1896	98,100,101,102,97,94,94,91,90,90 90,94,92,97,95,98,94,96,93,90
9	August 11 - 19, 2002 July 13 - 21, 1977 July 6 - 14, 1966 July 5 - 13, 1944	92,96,98,95,92,93,94,94,94 93,92,96,98,97,100, 102,92,104 91,93,91,91,91,94,99,101,95 93,94,91,94,92,91,93,93,91
8	July 29 - August 5, 2002 August 2 - 9, 1980 August 28 - Sept 4, 1973 August 10 - 17, 1944 June 26 - July 3, 1901	96, 95, 95, 96, 97, 90, 92, 91 91, 92, 91, 94, 93, 94, 96, 95 98, 95, 98, 94, 95, 94, 96, 93 97, 102, 97, 96, 95, 95, 96, 95 91,91,93,95,95,100,100,94
7	July 29 - August 4, 1995 August 9 - 15, 1998 July 15 - 21, 1991 July 12 - 18, 1983 July 7 - 13, 1981 August 1 - 7, 1955 July 15 - 21, 1953	93, 93, 91, 94, 96, 90,96 93, 93, 95, 94, 96, 99, 97 90, 93, 96, 99, 96, 100, 102 94, 93, 94, 98, 96, 93, 97 94, 95, 96, 93, 94, 94, 93 98, 100, 90, 95, 100, 97, 93 92, 97, 100, 101, 91, 90, 90

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/07/new-yorks-lengthiest-heat-waves.html

A heat wave, at least in the Northeast, is defined by the National Weather Service as three days in a row with high temperatures of 90° or hotter.  They occur, on average, about twice each summer.  However, this post is interested in "big boy" heat waves, i.e., those lasting seven days or longer.  Since records began in 1872 there have been just twenty-two, with one occurring about every seven years.  The seven-day heat wave of July 2013 broke a ten-year streak without one (and there hasn't been one of this length since).

[LibertyBell]

Note this doesn't mean ACC is not occurring, of course it is, it's just that it's nuanced in terms of how in the summer it's much more driven by higher minima.  In winter it's driven by both.

 

Record 95+ streak for NYC, the last one was in 2002 =\

I miss my extreme heat summers....

 

 

 

[chubbs]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No thats not all of it, climate change doesn't mean higher highs here in the northeast, at least in the areas where we live.  It's not about *sensors running warmer* I lived through the 1991, 1993, 1999, 2002 great summers when we had 100 degree days.  I measured the heat myself and it was more excessive than what we see now.   Cities like PHL, NYC, JFK are on record lack of 100 day streaks now.  It's because *climate change* does not mean *global warming* not every place is experiencing higher temperatures, especially higher maxima.  In the winter sure, it's getting warmer, but the summer-- not so much.  The averages are getting somewhat higher yes, but that is driven by higher minima, extreme heat is being blunted by more rainfall.  You can see this with how heatwaves are much shorter than they were back in the period I referenced, with drier hotter summers in the 90s up to 2002 we had much longer heatwaves.  2002 was our last summer with two 7+ day heatwaves and we have not seen 100 degrees here since 2013, and this record applies to all three cities.

 

Agree that 100+ days are not increasing locally, but average summer temperatures are. Below are monthly temperature trends for the Philadelphia airport (PHL) and for Coatesville, Chester County in the far N+W burbs from 1970 to 2024. As you say the winters are warming the fastest, but all months are warming.  Added a chart for philadelphia airport average summer high temperature. Summer highs are increasing, although nights are warming the fastest as expected with GHG. 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Agree that 100+ days are not increasing locally, but average summer temperatures are. Below are monthly temperature trends for the Philadelphia airport (PHL) and for Coatesville, Chester County in the far N+W burbs from 1970 to 2024. As you say the winters are warming the fastest, but all months are warming.  Added a chart for philadelphia airport average summer high temperature. Summer highs are increasing, although nights are warming the fastest as expected with GHG. 

Yes and sadly enough this more humid and warmer climate with less 95 and 100 degree days is actually much worse.  I've noticed it makes breathing more difficult for me.  I looked up July 9, 1993 which was a very hot day where I live (south shore of Long Island), at JFK it was 100 degrees with a dew point of 58 and humidity of 25%.  I had no problems being outside gardening, mowing my lawn, etc that day.  I noticed I find it much more difficulty on a day like today, temperatures in the 70s with 100% humidity.

I noticed that although 90 and 95 degree days have flatlined here (not going higher) 85 degree days are increasing.  So we're getting more days with a high of 85-89 and lows of 70-75+..... I think this is going to cause many more health issues than our *old climate* when we had highs of 90-95+ and lows in the 50s and 60s.

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, chubbs said:

What I would expect coming out of a nino. The ocean is cooling overall and the warm anomalies are migrating away from the tropics.

I agree 100% in the Pacific. But why the drastic cooling in a large part of the Atlantic, which is what he’s addressing? Maybe this is the start of a transition to -AMO?

[ChescoWx]

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

Shewchuk is telling us something we already know: raw COOP data in the US is biased. We've known this for decades. Deniers have been making the same complaint for decades; but they haven't provided a single document in a scientific forum to back up their claims. As we have found out in Chester County, NOAA's adjustments are completely justified. Stations moved, sensors/shelters ran warm, etc. Every time we checked, the raw data at nearby stations verified the adjustment. At this point you might as well complain that the sky is blue or the world is round.

We will all keep up the good fight by using actual scientific facts and data against what is the true source of perceived warming - man made climate data alterations being made to the factual raw data.

[ChescoWx]

4 hours ago, chubbs said:

Shewchuk is telling us something we already know: raw COOP data in the US is biased. We've known this for decades. Deniers have been making the same complaint for decades; but they haven't provided a single document in a scientific forum to back up their claims. As we have found out in Chester County, NOAA's adjustments are completely justified. Stations moved, sensors/shelters ran warm, etc. Every time we checked, the raw data at nearby stations verified the adjustment. At this point you might as well complain that the sky is blue or the world is round.

And climate alarmists like Charlie have so far presented not one shred of evidence to support the broad changes made each and every year to every single station in the USA to chill our past records.

[ChescoWx]

Our climate change to less and less 90 degree days continues in the Philly burbs of Chester County PA....however over at our old UHI problem spot the PHL Airport we continue to see more and more 90 plus days each summer season! Out here in Chester County we are averaging only 6 such days each summer over the past 2 decades.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

I agree 100% in the Pacific. But why the drastic cooling in a large part of the Atlantic, which is what he’s addressing? Maybe this is the start of a transition to -AMO?

It’s possible it’s the beginnings of. But even if it is we are likely to see a muted version in comparison to the last one.