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Indystorm

July 20-21 Severe Wx

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Looks like another active two day period with the front slowly progressing southward and multiple MCS's coming through the area,  Enhanced risk this Sat and tor warning already out this a.m. north of LaCrosse.

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10 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Looks like another active two day period with the front slowly progressing southward and multiple MCs's coming through the area,  Enhanced risk this Sat and tor warning already out this a.m. north of LaCrosse.

Things look pretty primed this afternoon for much of Southern Wisconsin for mainly a wind damage threat.

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I always find it amazing that svr t storms can occur once again over territory previously worked over twelve hours earlier.  But MCS's can especially be like that.  Per SPC meso discussion the activity should gradually begin to move farther south in WI later today.

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The MCS along the IA/MN, if it maintains, will be the story for today...and a likely derecho, which would take aim for S WI/N IL.

 

It developed 9-10PM last night near the MT/WY/SD border area. It has had widespread reports, some of which have been sig.

 

 

.

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
1122 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  WESTERN BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...  
  OUTAGAMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...  
  
* UNTIL NOON CDT.  
      
* AT 1121 AM CDT, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES  
  SOUTHWEST OF BLACK CREEK, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF APPLETON, MOVING  
  EAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  APPLETON AND BLACK CREEK AROUND 1130 AM CDT.  
  KAUKAUNA AND LITTLE CHUTE AROUND 1135 AM CDT.  
  GREEN BAY AROUND 1155 AM CDT.  
  BELLEVUE TOWN AROUND 1200 PM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
MACKVILLE, LITTLE RAPIDS, WAYSIDE, MORRISON, DE PERE, FREEDOM,  
LAMBEAU FIELD, LEDGEVIEW, HOBART AND LEO FRIGO BRIDGE.  
  
PEOPLE AT DOWNTOWN GREEN BAY SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI  
1138 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
  
WIC009-087-201700-  
/O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190720T1700Z/  
BROWN WI-OUTAGAMIE WI-  
1138 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR WESTERN  
BROWN AND OUTAGAMIE COUNTIES...  
          
AT 1134 AM CDT, A RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES   
SOUTHEAST OF BLACK CREEK OR NEAR FREEDPM, OR ABOUT 10 MILES   
NORTHEAST OF APPLETON, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.    
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  GREEN BAY AND BELLEVUE TOWN BY 1150 AM CDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
MACKVILLE, LITTLE RAPIDS, WAYSIDE, MORRISON, DE PERE, FREEDOM,  
LAMBEAU FIELD, LEDGEVIEW, HOBART AND LEO FRIGO BRIDGE.  
  
PEOPLE AT DOWNTOWN GREEN BAY SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
TO REPEAT, A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A  
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN  
A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
  
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW LONDON              44.38N 88.75W
07/20/2019                   WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN WITHIN THE
            TOWN. MAJOR DAMAGE REPORTED. MANY STREETS COVERED WITH
            DOWNED TREES AND LIMBS. POWER IS OUT.
 

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5 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

That tornado is about 15 miles north of the airshow.

I would expect the air show to get strong straight line winds but haven't heard anything yet.

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Looks like central to ne IA into southern WI is becoming the prime area to watch for possible derecho development later today per SPC multiple parameters and radars.

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Looks like central to ne IA into southern WI is becoming the prime area to watch for possible derecho development later today per SPC multiple parameters and radars.

It’s gonna be hard for any development to occur until post frontal passage, due to the strong capping...as evident by ~16C at 700mb.


.

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With 2 rounds of severe storms within the last 15 hours, radar-estimated rainfall is 7-10" west of Cadillac MI, to Lake Michigan.

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Round 1 underway, thinking Round 2 will weaken after this first batch hits, but who knows?  It's been a pretty active few days after going 10 days with just a trace of rain.

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Starting to hear from people back home in central WI that the damage from the first round this morning was pretty nuts.  Winds of an intensity seen only once in a generation.

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 Mesoscale Discussion 1546
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Illinois and Chicagoland Area

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201859Z - 202100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...As thunderstorms/outflow near northern Illinois, intense
   convection is possible given the extreme buoyancy in the area.
   Uncertainty remains as to how far south ongoing/newly developing
   convection will push into northern Illinois. A WW is possible should
   convective trends become more clear.

   DISCUSSION...A relatively narrow corridor of undisturbed airmass
   remains in far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
   Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s F to low 90s F with
   dewpoints holding in the upper 70s F. Two ongoing linear segments in
   southwestern and southeastern Wisconsin will likely continue to sag
   slowly southward with time. Given the extreme buoyancy -- MLCAPE of
   4000+ J/kg -- intense convection is possible with damaging winds
   being the primary threat. With the low-level shear vector oriented
   nearly parallel to the outflow, it is uncertain how much development
   will occur southward into Illinois. However, HCRs are currently
   visible on visible satellite imagery in northeastern Illinois. Even
   subtle lift from the outflow boundary may allow parcels to reach
   their LFC. A WW is possible should trends reveal convection is more
   likely.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/20/2019

 

MD 1546 graphic

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That mesoscale discussion is the one I have been waiting for.

9 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:
 Mesoscale Discussion 1546
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of northern Illinois and Chicagoland Area

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201859Z - 202100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...As thunderstorms/outflow near northern Illinois, intense
   convection is possible given the extreme buoyancy in the area.
   Uncertainty remains as to how far south ongoing/newly developing
   convection will push into northern Illinois. A WW is possible should
   convective trends become more clear.

   DISCUSSION...A relatively narrow corridor of undisturbed airmass
   remains in far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
   Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s F to low 90s F with
   dewpoints holding in the upper 70s F. Two ongoing linear segments in
   southwestern and southeastern Wisconsin will likely continue to sag
   slowly southward with time. Given the extreme buoyancy -- MLCAPE of
   4000+ J/kg -- intense convection is possible with damaging winds
   being the primary threat. With the low-level shear vector oriented
   nearly parallel to the outflow, it is uncertain how much development
   will occur southward into Illinois. However, HCRs are currently
   visible on visible satellite imagery in northeastern Illinois. Even
   subtle lift from the outflow boundary may allow parcels to reach
   their LFC. A WW is possible should trends reveal convection is more
   likely.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/20/2019

 

MD 1546 graphic

 

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2 hours ago, Chinook said:

Video of wind blowing around tents in Appleton

gnWqQnK.jpg

Here is the actual video

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North of Woodstock. That Wisconsin complex boundary just sagged south and winds turned north with a quick 5 degree drop in temps. Was hoping it would hang up.

 

Edit: Make that an 8 degree drop.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

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New meso complex developing in central IA in 14C 700 mb temps...initial svr storm diving southeast....somewhat unexpected direction to me....will have to watch to see what happens. If this continues central IL may soon be under the gun this evening.

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And here's the new meso discussion

 Mesoscale Discussion 1554
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0654 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

   Areas affected...portions of northern MO...west-central IL and
   southeast IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 202354Z - 210100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat may persist into portions of northern
   MO and west-central IL this evening as a bowing storm cluster shifts
   southeast from IA. Damaging winds will be the main concern and a
   watch will likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across south-central IA is becoming
   better organized this evening as it has begun interacting with
   outflow boundary from earlier convection. Wind gusts greater than 60
   mph have already been measured with these storms, which are
   occurring in a strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE greater
   than 3000 J/kg and 2-6 km lapse rates around 8 C/km. Effective shear
   across the region is modest, around 25-35 kt, which is sufficient to
   maintain organized updrafts. Forecast RAP soundings indicate a
   deeply mixed boundary layer with favorable conditions for strong
   downdrafts. While storms may track south of stronger deep layer
   flow, buoyancy will remain more than adequate to maintain
   convection, especially if upscale growth into a mature bowing
   segment continues. As such, a severe threat with damaging wind
   potential could persist south and east of WW 534. Current track
   guidance shows convection near the end of the watch in the next
   30-60 minutes, so a downstream watch will likely be needed soon.
 

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I have enhanced disappointment, it was meh at the airport, last night was 100x more interesting and yeah back home got hit good, while I was at work :axe:

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Had 40-45mph wind gusts here with the storms/OFB that moved through late afternoon.


.

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This Sunday afternoon at 1 p.m. EDT I would watch the cells se of the flash flood warning in northern Illinois as they slowly move eastward into Kankakee  county for torrential rains at least.

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Yesterday morning's derecho meant business.  Gusts of up to 90 mph laid waste to a corridor between Wisconsin Rapids and Appleton, leaving tens of thousands without power.  Damage is so extensive that power is expected to be out for several more days and the mayor of Wisconsin Rapids declared the city a disaster area.  Surprised that there's no mainstream coverage of this event whatsoever.  These aren't little unincorporated villages we're talking about but modestly sized population centers.  (Maybe it's because no one was live streaming the event on social media?)

https://www.wsaw.com/content/news/Wisconsin-Rapids-Mayor-Shelter--512989341.html

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