Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,514
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Raifu
    Newest Member
    Raifu
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
ApacheTrout

AT’s Weather Forecast for Rest of Year

Recommended Posts

After consulting various indices, anagrams, the Farmer's Almanac, Twitter, and every predictive animal and insect, this is what I've come up with for the remainder of the year.  The r2 value approaches 1, and the 95% CI is very small, so I’m feeling very confident in this.

D5362DE5-C98A-4604-AE4F-A661B800C9AF.jpeg

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good to see that you have "snow chances" noted for November and December.  Pretty bold call right there.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I see you're really going out on a limb with that summer forecast. Good luck!!!

Thank you.  It took a lot of hard work, and I'm proud of not giving up when things were most dire.  Here's a bit more explanation:

 

In Depth Temperature Analysis

If you look closely, you can see that the mean high temp line goes through each of the boxes differently:

The Warming Up Period (AKA Deep Summer/Too Late to Install): About Normal

Greatest Chance for HHH Period: Slightly Cooler than Normal.  We'll still experience routine calls for Epic HHH, but it ain't happening.  Lots of the last H, but very little of the first two.

The Cooling Off Period: Below Normal

Snow Chances Epoch: Well Below Normal

 

Gonna Be Wet - Get Over It

As for precipitation: Wet.  Damp.  Borderline moldy.  Maybe three consecutive days of uninterrupted sunshine in July (the 5th, 6th, and 7th) and definitely sunny and dry the  entire week of August 11.  But's that all we can expect.  Oh, and flood insurance policies should be renewed prior to September 23.  Widespread flooding.  Coastal erosion.  Permanent Mean Sea Level increase of 60 mm.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Good to see that you have "snow chances" noted for November and December.  Pretty bold call right there.

Normally, I bet in favor of AN temps, but not this fall.  The AN temps and rain start on Dec 24, too late to affect the period's overall meme.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is not covered in AT's post, but I also like the odds of our leaves changing color here in NNE in late September into mid-October.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, klw said:

It is not covered in AT's post, but I also like the odds of our leaves changing color here in NNE in late September into mid-October.

Agree.  If you have hardcore science to back it up, all the better. But gut feelings count for so much ‘round here, so that’s good, too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Agree.  If you have hardcore science to back it up, all the better. But gut feelings count for so much ‘round here, so that’s good, too.

Better than science, I have pictures.  As you can see in two of the pictures, in October the leaves have color but not in the warmer sun tanning months.

 

fall 2012 206 resize.jpg

134 resize.jpg

sunning.jpg

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hard to argue with pictures.  And you bear a remarkable and uncanny resemblance to a Soviet stud muffin, so I really wouldn't dare argue with you at all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, klw said:

Better than science, I have pictures.  As you can see in two of the pictures, in October the leaves have color but not in the warmer sun tanning months.

 

fall 2012 206 resize.jpg

134 resize.jpg

sunning.jpg

Cept suntan pic background is evergreens, hey nice pic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cept suntan pic background is evergreens, hey nice pic

I was hoping no one would pick up on that.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/13/2019 at 9:45 AM, ApacheTrout said:

After consulting various indices, anagrams, the Farmer's Almanac, Twitter, and every predictive animal and insect, this is what I've come up with for the remainder of the year.  The r2 value approaches 1, and the 95% CI is very small, so I’m feeling very confident in this.

D5362DE5-C98A-4604-AE4F-A661B800C9AF.jpeg

Much better than Cranky 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×