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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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26 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

My issue is with all of the alarmists. If someone has to go to an extreme to get my attention, (IE Miami will be gone in a few years,) you're probably full of shit and you're doing nothing to help your cause. Thunberg's rise to fame is just another form of sensationalism to me. On the other hand I cringe just as badly when I hear non-believers of climate change. However I'm not constantly exposed to that as an overreaching sales pitch, the worst of which I probably hear from time to time from Trump. (IE recently denounced the emissions tech in new cars)

16 years ago in college it wasn't as bad as it is now but still bad. So I wrote a paper on climate change and I ultimately landed on a few main points that I still believe after all this time.

Humans are contributing to climate change.

Slowing down is possible but not reversal.

All of the money being spent on subsidizing green energy would better be spent on preparing for higher water levels and temperatures(seawalls, cooling, relocation).

In 100 years we will have figured out fusion. In the mean time build more nuclear.

 

The one thing I now believe that i didn't 16 years ago is that electric cars will become the dominate mode within the next 10 years. Not because people want to be green but because they simply out perform their gasoline counterparts. That's the same way all of this will pan out as long as capitalism does what is does. Eventually fossil fuels will simply be too expensive, the market will be what ultimately makes everyone more "green."

I think the problem with all of it is who the public figures are in the climate change activism world. Al Gore, Bill Nye, Leonardo Dicaprio, this 16 year old girl. We need an expert with a PHD in climate science who is world renowned to be the activist. Al Gore made millions off of climate change with his books with no scientific background. 

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43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That's a change within range. If GFS is correct that would bring first flakes to higher elevations next Friday. 

gfs_T850a_us_41.png

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

I've been monitoring since the late runs this morning, if verified next week's highs would be upper 50's lower elevations Friday and Saturday next weekend. 

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I've been monitoring since the late runs this morning, if verified next week's highs would be upper 50's lower elevations Friday and Saturday next weekend. 

Yeah mid 50s highs, lows in lower 40s. The average high/low for Oct 4th is 63/46. 

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Forecasted temps on weather.com emulate the GFS for later next week...55 on Friday in buffalo and 56 Saturday...according to that autocast it does not warm up much above the low 60's or pretty much climo avg after that. Looks like if your a warm weather lover this is about it for any extended period save for the 2 or 3 day special. 

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12 hours ago, tim123 said:

Blizzard expected in Montana. 3 feet or more expected. Nws in Montana saying could set a new benchmark for wind cold and snow in September. Wind chills to minus 15. 

The really impressive winter storm looks limited to the northern Rocky Mountain Front, and the 2 foot + amounts will be driven by orographic lift, but I imagine the livestock loss and power outages will be severe. Fortunately, most of the relatively populated locations won't be getting the worst of it.

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This really gives you a feel for the orography of western Montana. Looks like a foot for Butte, a half foot for Missoula, and 0.0 for the residents of the Flathead Valley/Kalispell.

Not a great weekend to plan a drive on the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier.

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2019092512_108_473_215.png

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Pouring out right now ... Nearing average for the month with about 4.5" of liquid..

BGM_loop.gif.e3d9308bf6c1fd3ed182506e7f609280 (1).gif

That line came through around 7am and it was a deluge for a good 15 minutes. Now for the post before this one...the cold shot late next week has good agreement on all ensembles and even after when temps recover they recover to normal which is low 60's. Of potentially greater significance is the the first forecasted (GFS so take with one grain of salt) minor PV disruption the second week of October. We know it can take 10 to 14 days to see the impacts in our area and to enhance it all the MJO towards the end of the month will be entering the 8, 1, 2 phases. This *could* set us up for our first true cold shot at the end od October...if not, it's at least becoming intersting again! 

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34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Updated 8-14 Day

 

814temp.new (11).gif

Some "Abnormally Dry" conditions popping up in NY state..

Screenshot_20190926-214421.png

That's an awfully strong signal to much more seasonable temps for the foreseeable timeframe after the 3rd of next month.

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The operational GFS 6z (again grain of salt) is now showing in the long range a couple of shortwaves rolling out of Canada that *could* make the cool down were about to get late next week look mild in comparison. This type of cooler weather looks to have support amongst the ensembles into the middle of October.

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13 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

 

Some "Abnormally Dry" conditions popping up in NY state..

Screenshot_20190926-214421.png

KBUF is running way above normal on rainfall this month, but at least at my house, almost all the precipitation has come in three brief but extremely heavy downpours. Our garden and lawn actually looks pretty well baked because most of the water turned into run off and didn't soak the soil.

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Glad the site is back up but not sure I’m a fan of the new look, maybe will just take some time to get used to. Looking at the medium to long range it looks like a good cool down Friday into this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s which is a bit below normal but nothing crazy, then the last several runs have reverted right back to around average temperatures with highs from 60-70 degrees depending on the day. Honestly to me this would be perfect as it’s only the beginning of October and that weather is perfect for doing outdoor activities/festivals now that we have 2 kids. Winter will be here before you know it and as BuffaloWeather has said on here many times until you get to early November it’s really tough to get any kind of snow anyways so why waste all the lakes energy on below average days with 40s and 50s and rain. 

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Just got back from the Adirondacks. Got down to 37 degrees as we hammock camped on a private island we kayaked to. Have never done that before. The sunrise over the lake with the steam from the cold temps and warm water was pretty incredible. Got some great pics.

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Was going to ask you this very question over the weekend the the system went down and I just forgot. So tomorrow a new thread? Looking forward to it...the incredible part is we could very well be chasing fantasy lake events in about 6 weeks time!!!

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41 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Was going to ask you this very question over the weekend the the system went down and I just forgot. So tomorrow a new thread? Looking forward to it...the incredible part is we could very well be chasing fantasy lake events in about 6 weeks time!!!

We usually get a big one once every 5 years. We're going to be getting neutral Enso conditions which is prime for a solid winter. The first LES event last year was Nov 9th so around 5 weeks out for the start of LES season. 

Lake Effect Summary - Nov 10 2018 to Nov 11 2018 - Storm Total Snow Maphttps://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=A

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We usually get a big one once every 5 years. We're going to be getting neutral Enso conditions which is prime for a solid winter. 

Last big one was Nov 2014 so are we due this year lol? 

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2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Last big one was Nov 2014 so are we due this year lol? 

Last year Buffalo had 2 20"+ events. What would you consider big? 

Springville and the ski country get 3' events every year. I would consider a big one 3' or more for someone between Eden and the Northtowns. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last year Buffalo had 2 20"+ events. What would you consider big? 

Springville and the ski country get 3' events every year. I would consider a big one 3' or more for someone between Eden and the Northtowns. 

I consider a big one the same way 3’ or more within 20 miles of the city of Buffalo itself or a super anomalous event such as October 2006. The big ones for me in the last 20 years are December 2001 (82” in 5 days) , October 2006 (24” in the second week of October is certainly anomalous), December 2010 (40” in just over 24 hours around Depew/SB/WS), November 2014 (70-90+” in 4 days)  Sure the 20”+ events last year were impressive especially considering the frequency of them with how close they hit and the brutal cold that hit with the one but to me they’re not the blockbusters like the other ones I named above. Just my opinion but I’m still waiting for that big one for my 4th winter in West Seneca.

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32 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I consider a big one the same way 3’ or more within 20 miles of the city of Buffalo itself or a super anomalous event such as October 2006. The big ones for me in the last 20 years are December 2001 (82” in 5 days) , October 2006 (24” in the second week of October is certainly anomalous), December 2010 (40” in just over 24 hours around Depew/SB/WS), November 2014 (70-90+” in 4 days)  Sure the 20”+ events last year were impressive especially considering the frequency of them with how close they hit and the brutal cold that hit with the one but to me they’re not the blockbusters like the other ones I named above. Just my opinion but I’m still waiting for that big one for my 4th winter in West Seneca.

I will say having almost 60" in the last 2 week's was impressive!!! I'd like to think we see more solid chances of another good lake effect event for the metro/Northtowns again this year.

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27 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I will say having almost 60" in the last 2 week's was impressive!!! I'd like to think we see more solid chances of another good lake effect event for the metro/Northtowns again this year.

Yeah that's pretty tough to get in Metro Buffalo. I would say that was our once every 5 year event. 

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