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janetjanet998

MAR 9th severe weather

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instead of small  dead threads in multiple subforms....since the main focus is the mid south so I started this "event" thread here...

 

AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0658 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2019  
  
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
EASTERN ARKANSAS...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND  
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE OZARKS AND  
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.   
DAMAGING GUSTS, TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ALL ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS A PROGRESSIVE, WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, DOWNSTREAM FROM AN  
AMPLIFYING, POSITIVELY TILTED SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CA AND PACIFIC WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST.   
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL  
IMAGERY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO  
WEST-CENTRAL TX -- WILL BE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE THIS  
PERIOD.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY 00Z TO  
NEAR AN AXIS FROM JMS-CID-STL-JBR.  BY 12Z, A CLOSED 500-MB LOW  
SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE NORTHWEST LIMB OF THE TROUGH, OVER  
CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MI, NEARLY STACKED WITH AN OCCLUDED SURFACE  
CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI.  
  
AT THE SURFACE, 11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER  
WEST-CENTRAL KS, WITH OCCLUDED FRONT DIFFUSELY SOUTHEASTWARD TO  
NORTH-CENTRAL OK, AND COLD FRONT ARCHING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH  
CENTRAL OK AND WEST-CENTRAL TX, OVERTAKING A PRE-EXISTING DRYLINE.   
A WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OK, SOUTH-CENTRAL AR, TO  
EXTREME NORTHERN MS NEAR THE TN BORDER.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN IA IN OCCLUDED FORM AROUND 00Z, THEN  
PROCEED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z TO NORTHERN  
LOWER MI.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARC FROM  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN ACROSS EASTERN TN TO THE MID/UPPER TX COASTAL  
PLAIN BY 00Z.  BY 12Z, THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS, CENTRAL MS, TO NEAR THE MID/UPPER TX COAST.  THE TX  
SEGMENT SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY BY THEN.  MEANWHILE THE WARM  
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO  
RIVER VALLEYS, WITH POOR DEFINITION IN AND NEAR AREAS OF CONVECTION.  
  
   
..NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO OZARKS AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS  
  
A BELT OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM THE WESTERN/CENTRAL OZARKS  
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OK TO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/  
NORTHEAST TX.  FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY, REFER TO SPC WATCHES AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE  
DISCUSSIONS FROM THERE EASTWARD.  
  
THE INITIAL BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA  
TODAY, WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF LA/MS, AHEAD  
OF THE COLD FRONT.  MESSY, MIXED MODES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  
ACTIVITY -- MAINLY LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW FORMATIONS AND  
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  THIS CONVECTION WILL OFFER A THREAT FOR  
DAMAGING WIND AND SPORADIC HAIL, AS WELL AS TORNADO POTENTIAL.  THE  
CAPE-SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE IN ITS INFLOW REGION, WHILE MARGINAL ON  
THE BUOYANCY SIDE, WILL EXHIBIT STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR.  
  
A FEW SHORTER-TERM/CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE TEMPORARY  
WEAKENING WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE MID-SOUTH NEAR THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN EARLY AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH A TEMPORARY  
DECREASE IN INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY, BEFORE AGAIN STRENGTHENING DUE TO  
A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND REMAINING SURFACE  
DIABATIC HEATING.  HOWEVER, THIS SIGNAL IS NEITHER STRONG NOR LARGE  
ENOUGH TO DELINEATE ANY DIFFERENCES IN BROADER-SCALE AREAL SEVERE  
PROBABILITIES.  FARTHER EAST, AS BUOYANCY INCREASES SOMEWHAT,  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY BENEATH A 60-80-KT LLJ,  
ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH-END SRH FOR NON-TROPICAL  
SYSTEMS (E.G., EFFECTIVE SRH 500-900 J/KG AND 0-1-KM LAYER SRH  
VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 500 J/KG) -- AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE  
FROM THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD.  THIS IS A FAVORABLE PARAMETER  
SPACE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES, THOUGH CONCERNS OVER STORM MODE  
CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE THREAT BEYOND LEVELS CURRENTLY  
DEPICTED.  
  
THE WARM SECTOR WILL NARROW AND BECOME MORE PRECIP-CONTAMINATED WITH  
NORTHWARD EXTENT FROM THE MID-SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND  
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, BUT STILL SHOULD RETAIN ENOUGH CAPE (MLCAPE  
500-1000 J/KG IN POCKETS) TO SUPPORT SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND TORNADO  
POTENTIAL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS THERE.  FROM LATE AFTERNOON  
INTO EVENING, ACTIVITY WILL START TO OUTPACE THE WARM SECTOR OVER  
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA, WHILE DEEP-LAYER  
LIFT DIMINISHES IN THE SOUTH WITH THE EJECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH  
AWAY FROM THE REGION.  MEANWHILE, DIABATIC SURFACE COOLING WILL  
REDUCE BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY GRADUALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
STATES, EVEN AMIDST CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  AS SUCH, THE  
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECLINE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD.  
  
..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/09/2019  

 

 

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The HRRR almost looks like it wants to break the main line up into cells later.....

also the storms n AR may hold  the Warm front (or secondary warm front) up and keep winds backed over TN

 

plus any cells that develop ahead of line..(IE the ones near Memphis)

 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0945 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI  
NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 091545Z - 091815Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH  
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND  
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
  
DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN AR  
AND NOW INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND WESTERN KY, WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING  
SHEAR PROFILES. WHILE INSTABILITY IS WEAK, A LINE OF STORMS ALONG A  
COLD FRONT OVER AR, AND ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF  
THE UPPER VORTICITY MAX, MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES  
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR,  
BUT EXCESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE LIFT MAY  
MITIGATE THIS.  
  
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE LINE WILL MOVE SLOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN AR INTO  
MS, BUT HERE INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER, AND HODOGRAPHS WILL  
CLEARLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS.  
  

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Little Rock 

 

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
954 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTH CENTRAL FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...  
  
* UNTIL 1030 AM CST.  
      
* AT 954 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER WEST LITTLE ROCK, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  

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cells rotating in the  ARLATX REGION NOW

 

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1014 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 1100 AM CST.  
      
* AT 1013 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ATLANTA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  

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STORMS BREAKING UP INTO DISCRETE CELLS IN CENTRAL AR

ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1014 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...  
  NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 1100 AM CST.  
      
* AT 1013 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ATLANTA, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  

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@NWSShreveport
Follow Follow @NWSShreveport
More
Tornado reported on Mira Myrtis Road west of Interstate 49. Moving east at 45 mph. Take care now!
 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1059 AM CST SAT MAR 09 2019  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12...  
  
VALID 091659Z - 091900Z  
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 12  
CONTINUES.  
  
SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHERN  
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, AND PARTS OF THE SEVERE WATCH WILL  
BE UPGRADED TO TORNADO.  
  
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AR INTO  
NORTHWEST LA ALONG A COLD FRONT. WHILE MIXED STORM MODES HAVE BEEN  
OBSERVED, ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH PERIODIC STRONG  
ROTATION. GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SRH OVER 500 M2/S2 AND AREAS OF  
HEATING, THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON  
PRIOR TO WINDS VEERING WITH A TORNADO, HAIL, OR SEVERE WIND GUST  
THREAT.  

 

 

-----

 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1105 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  EXTREME SOUTHERN ARKANSAS  
  EXTREME NORTHERN LOUISIANA  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1105 AM  
  UNTIL 300 PM CST.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE EMERGED WITHIN THE BAND OF  
CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING THROUGH THE MORNING.  FOR THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS, THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC  
SUPERCELLS NEAR THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER, WITH SOME POTENTIAL  
FOR ANY ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO.  

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AFAYETTE AR-BOSSIER LA-  
1111 AM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CST FOR SOUTH  
CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL  
BOSSIER PARISHES...  
      
AT 1055 AM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED WITH THIS STORM NEAR   
HOSSTON.  A SECOND AREA OF ROTATION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHEAST OF   
PLAIN DEALING, OR 17 MILES WEST OF SPRINGHILL, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

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Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Lots of junk storms in front of main threat, wondering what that will cause or possible effects.

yeah...there are interesting storms moving onto NE AR but that old line to the south is interfering with instability and inflow

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Noon central time: Differential heating boundary is evident in North Mississippi, northwest Alabama, noted by 70s temps and 60s dews south and thicker clouds north. This is south of the synoptic WF which is in Kentucky.

The Miss/Bama boundary should lift to the Tennessee border, perhaps into West Tenn. As the Arkansas front/dry line approaches, it should create intersecting boundaries, Low level convergence is forecast to increase in MS/AL/TN when the Arkansas front approaches. Conceptual and some numerical models have slightly higher storm relative helicity near the lifting MS/AL boundary. SPC and some CAMs have started to highlight this more southern boundary intersection. Compared to the Kentucky triple point, storms should move slower in the Mid South, esp down in Mississippi. Upper winds are strong both areas, but not quite as nuts strong South.

Storms are a mess in the Delta right now. We'll see if the line breaks up a bit into Mississippi and Alabama later this afternoon. We can do without human impacts either way.

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5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Those N. Ark storms really have look if close to being first to produce, will see what happens.

2 confirmed earlier..one in AR and one in LA.. 

those cells you refer too are lacking instability..LLJ increasing though to 80-90 KTS! by 21z near them

 

 

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Just joining the discussion after attending a business meeting earlier today.  Thank you Janet for starting this thread in the Tennessee Valley subforum.   SPC was thinking of a possible lull early this afternoon once the first wave of storms moves ne and that differential heating boundary can serve to become a focus.

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Keep an eye on east central MO as well as northern MS.  Clearing has happened behind the initial line of storms and the area is closer to the surface low pressure.

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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Keep an eye on east central MO as well as northern MS.  Clearing has happened behind the initial line of storms and the area is closer to the surface low pressure.

Indeed, just as I posted messy storm modes N. Mississippi started looking interesting.

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RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
155 PM CST SAT MAR 9 2019  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS  
  NORTHEAST LOUISIANA  
  MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL  
  900 PM CST.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE  
  
SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS, SOME WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES,  
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST  
ARKANSAS INTO MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  OTHER  
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST IN THE  
WARM SECTOR.  THE STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.  THE  
STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.  
  

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Couple discreet cells west of ST Louis riding the warm front intensifying.  Getting my first thunder of the year here at 36 degrees lol.  Damn inversion!

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AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0158 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2019  
  
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING, FROM THE  
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF  
STRONG TORNADOES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI  
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA, IN ADDITION TO THE  
RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  
   
..20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE  
  
CONSIDERABLE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE, LARGELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE  
CONTINUING PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC AND SUB-SYNOPTIC FEATURES.    
  
THE BASE OF THE RAPIDLY MOVING NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH,  
NOW APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PIVOTING  
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/ALLEGHENY PLATEAU REGION  
THROUGH THIS EVENING.  AS IT DOES, STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED  
FROM THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE CYCLONE'S WARM SECTOR, NOW  
GENERALLY CONFINED TO A PLUME OF MOIST RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY.  
  
AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATES FROM NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI  
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION, THERE REMAINS SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS AND  
NORTH OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER BY THIS EVENING, IN THE WAKE OF THE  
EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER, THE EXTENT TO  
WHICH THIS WILL BECOME SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE  
PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR REMAINS UNCERTAIN, PARTICULARLY WITH  
NORTHWARD EXTENT TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  
  
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NOW SEEMS INCREASINGLY FOCUSED  
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  THIS  
IS ON THE SOUTHERN-MOST PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING,  
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN  
THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WHICH ARE BECOMING VERY LARGE  
AND CLOCKWISE CURVED.  THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF  
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS WHICH MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
FEW TORNADOES, A COUPLE PERHAPS STRONG.  FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS  
REGION, PLEASE REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 172.  

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This is supposedly the Arkansas tornado from earlier. Doesn't "look" super violent bt fairly nice wedge.

 

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