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MattPetrulli

March 3, 2019 Severe Threat

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SPC issued an enhanced risk for tornadoes (which includes a 10% hatched) and for wind. 

As the shortwave trough moves across the lower Mississippi Valley on
   Sunday, a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet will move across the Tennessee
   Valley. The southeastern edge of this feature will enhance ascent
   and aid strong deep-layer shear profiles. Due to this, a wind damage
   threat should develop within the squall-line by midday.  At
   low-levels, a 40 to 60 kt jet is forecast to move eastward across
   south-central Alabama during the afternoon. Discrete supercells that
   form over the warm sector near and to the southwest of the low-level
   jet max will have favorable shear profiles for tornadoes.  The
   number of tornadoes that develop will be dependent upon how many
   discrete cells form out ahead of the cold front. If a cluster of
   discrete cells can become scattered across the area with stronger
   instability, then there could be a small cluster of tornadoes. The
   greatest potential for tornadoes is currently forecast from just
   north of Mobile east-northeastward to the east of Columbus, Georgia.
    An enhanced has been added along this corridor where a potential
   for strong tornadoes will exist. In addition to tornadoes, wind
   damage and isolated large hail will also be possible with
   supercells. A wind damage threat should also be concentrated along
   the squall-line to the west.  The squall-line should progress
   eastward across the southern Gulf Coast States and into Georgia
   during the late afternoon and early evening.
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Enhanced has grown significantly since the first issuance.  Now covers large portions of Alabama and Georgia.

Could be an active day.

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There's an isolated supercell in Walton County, Florida moving northeast in South Alabama headed towards Enterprise and Ozark

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The isolated storms as well as the line are both moving into areas of higher helicity as they approach Alabama.  They must be watched carefully, even if lapse rates are not all that high.

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2 isolated cells in the Panhandle and SE AL exhibiting broad rotation, along with defined superceullular structures.
 

Edit: As I was posting, tornado warning issued for cell heading into Dothan, AL nice signature too. 

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4 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

2 isolated cells in the Panhandle and SE AL exhibiting broad rotation, along with defined superceullular structures.
 

Edit: As I was posting, tornado warning issued for cell heading into Dothan, AL nice signature too. 

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The supercell over Columbus is going through the northside of the city along the JR Allen Parkway.  It has broad rotation 

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Funnel cloud has been reported by local citizens in North Columbus associated with the supercell in Muscogee County, GA

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Are spotters out on these?  I see Michael phelps on the Dothan storm but he is not broadcasting unfortunately.

Lot of firing east of the boundary now.

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Dothan cell fell apart as it entered Dothan thankfully.

Confirmed tornado with debris sig on Clarke and Washington Counties, AL tornado warning 

A lot of discrete structures firing across GA and AL

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More clearing and insolation in southern Ga and on ne to S.C.. as storms move eastward.  Threat increasing in these areas. SPC focused on Montgomery AL area eastward at present meso discussion.

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