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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

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To say it's been rare to see GOM development this late in October would be an understatement. The last purely GOM system to become a TC this late in the calender year was Juan in 1985:

 

 

The reasons meteorologically-speaking are fairly straight forward. Early October is very different than late October. Strong frontal boundaries and the jet stream have typically overtaken and suppressed favorable atmospheric dynamics for cyclogenesis by this point.

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Since we now have a TC showing up within modeling, the moisture stream is shifting east into the Tennessee Valley. There will still be significant moisture stream up into the Mississippi Valley in combo with the frontal boundary, so the flood threat is still possible there. However, with a well-developed surface low such as TC, the flooding threat may shift east into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. This is a late development that needs to be watched. Of course many areas in the Southeast still need the rain.

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2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Up to 60% on the 2pm NHC outlook.


.

Yeah... but the TWO makes it seem it only has like 24 hours left or so

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located over the Bay of
Campeche.  However, recent satellite data indicate that the
circulation is elongated and not well defined.  This system
could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with
a cold front by late Friday.  Regardless of development, gale-force
winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and Saturday.  For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Latest (8 am) on this disturbance, and it is expected to get caught up in the front that will be moving across the central U.S. -

Quote
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of the low
pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico is becoming
better defined, and that the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of organization.  It appears likely
that a short-lived tropical cyclone will form later today.  However,
the system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become
post-tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the
cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico today and Saturday. For
more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Shower activity has increased this morning near the center of a
large non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of
the western Azores.  Some additional development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it moves generally
east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Beven

 

 

 

Quick Lin

With all that convection, it'll certainly be a wet system.  The temps in the GOM are still pretty warm.

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Advisories forthcoming

Tropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf
of Mexico and southwest of the Azores.

1. Updated: Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate
that a tropical cyclone is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico,
and advisories will be initiated on this system later this morning.
The system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post-
tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force
winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of
Mexico today and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.


.

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In addition... looks like there could also be another short-lived TC out by the Azores as well per the updated TWO:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf
of Mexico and southwest of the Azores.

2. Updated: Recent satellite derived winds indicate that the small
non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the
western Azores is producing tropical-storm-force winds near the
center. The thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized and
if this trend continues a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form
later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast
for the next day or so and interests in the Azores should monitor
the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Avila

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TD-17 is born -

Quote
000
WTNT32 KNHC 251431
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in
effect.

Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings
associated with this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 94.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A
motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is
expected this afternoon through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast
tonight or Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected today, and the depression could
become a tropical storm this afternoon.  The cyclone is then
expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low
with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf
coast.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the depression this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread
over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday
morning.

RAINFALL: The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and
north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is
expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into
the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning.  These rains
may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal
flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast.
Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast
offices for additional information.

TORNADOES:  A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across
southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest
Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quote
000
WTNT42 KNHC 251432
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system in the
western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation.
In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to
the northeast of the low-level center.  Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Seventeen.  The initial intensity
is set at 30 kt, and it is possible based on last night's
scatterometer data that this is conservative.

A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states
should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in
forward speed during the next couple of days, with the center
crossing the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning.  The
track guidance is in good agreement, and the forecast track lies
close to the various consensus models.

A surface cold front associated with the baroclinic trough is
quickly approaching the center of the depression, and the tropical
cyclone is expected to merge with the front during the next 12 h.
Based on this, the cyclone is expected to become a gale-force
post-tropical low before it reaches the northern Gulf coast.  The
low should weaken after landfall, with dissipation expected just
after 48 h.  There is a chance that the system could briefly become
a tropical storm this afternoon before it merges with the cold
front.  However, even if this occurs it will make little difference
to the impacts on the northern Gulf coast.

Key messages:

1. Since depression is expected to merge with a cold front and
become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall
and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local
National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 25.6N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 28.2N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1200Z 32.6N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0000Z 38.1N  89.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/1200Z 43.2N  85.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

You can see a bit of the naked swirl in the SW part of the blob of convection.

143243_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

COD-GOES-East-subregional-W_Gulf_Coast.truecolor.20191025.145133-1104am-truecolor-10252019.gif

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Looks like another funky tropical/subtropical named storm in the Atlantic is upcoming. The system in the far Northern Atlantic certainly seems to be producing storms around the center and has at least a subtropical appearance now. NHC upgraded it to 50% this morning. Given the recent increase in convection and the fact it's already sporting 45 kt wind I'd expect an upgrade to another named system this evening, as long as recent trends continue.

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4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks like another funky tropical/subtropical named storm in the Atlantic is upcoming. The system in the far Northern Atlantic certainly seems to be producing storms around the center and has at least a subtropical appearance now. NHC upgraded it to 50% this morning. Given the recent increase in convection and the fact it's already sporting 45 kt wind I'd expect an upgrade to another named system this evening, as long as recent trends continue.

You are correct.  NHC will begin advisories on STS Rebekah at 5pm

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On 11/2/2019 at 9:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

It was a good run with a lot of tracking. See y’all next season.

Hold on!!!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better organized
and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has been
developing closer to the center since yesterday. If this trend
continues, then a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could
form in the next day or so while the system moves northwestward and
then northward over the open Atlantic. The low is forecast to
interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development is
unlikely after that time. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

image.png.33e984aa88c47abe3e30d93be761422c.png

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Woo!

Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
1100 AM AST Tue Nov 19 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern of the
disturbance has improved since yesterday, and that the low has
become well-defined. In addition, a late-arriving ASCAT-B
scatterometer pass showed 35-38 kt winds extending 90 n mi from the
center in the northeastern quadrant. This pass also revealed that
the low was nearly closed at the surface, and since the
scatterometer may not have resolved the small scale of the low-level
center it is likely that the surface low is indeed closed. Based on
these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm
Sebastian with an initial advisory intensity of 40 kt.

The depression will not be in an ideal environment for significant
intensification, as it will be battling dry air to its west and
about 20 kt of northwesterly shear for the next couple of days.
However, due to the presence of an upper trough to the west of the
system, a diffluent environment aloft may aid in some slight
strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, the
depression will begin to interact with an approaching cold front,
and some additional intensification may occur due to baroclinic
processes. The cyclone is then expected to become absorbed by the
front in about 48 hours. The various intensity guidance solutions
are in decent agreement, and the official forecast is near the mean
of these forecasts. There are some timing variations among the
models on when the cyclone will become absorbed by the front, and it
is possible that the depression could be absorbed sooner than
indicated.

The initial motion is 330/07 kt. The depression will be steered to
the northwest in the near term around a deep-layer ridge over the
central Atlantic. By Wednesday, the cyclone should turn north, and
then should accelerate northeastward by Wednesday night as the
cyclone gets caught up in the flow between the retreating ridge and
ahead of the approaching cold front. The model guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and on the official forecast track the
cyclone will remain over open waters for the duration of its
existence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 20.1N  58.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 21.0N  59.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 22.2N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 23.5N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 25.5N  58.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

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