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The Iceman

2/10-2/12 Winter Storm Threat

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

HDRRP better. GfS coming in colder and wetter.

GFS is 10 degrees colder than 6z along 95 Tuesday evening.

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Just now, Newman said:

Remember that the GFS sucks with thermals, especially in CAD situations. My call right now would be a general 3-5" before icing. I think this is also a situation where there could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere which limits snowfall but raises sleet potential. 

I agree with this call 3-5" seems very reasonable.

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest Wxsim with 6z data - not too much wintry once past Tuesday AM... rush not bad at all

 

Paul, does wxsim use 3km nam data or just 12km nam? 

 

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

HDERPS does same dry line never makes it to Mason dixon Southern pa no separation between waves fwiw

HRDPS is very nice for Sunday night

hrdps_asnow_neus_48.png

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8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Starting to believe this is that "one storm" even if it's only a SECS and not all that big

 

We still have ~5 weeks of potential winter weather, I'll keep my fingers crossed. Plus, dont most stronger coastal system occur in Feb/March? 

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35 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

We still have ~5 weeks of potential winter weather, I'll keep my fingers crossed. Plus, dont most stronger coastal system occur in Feb/March? 

Just saying it's possible considering the difficult winter it's been and the generally not conducive environment that follows this storm the following week to ten days

 

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Wxsim with 12z data obviously trended colder and icier based on the latest models. 

It now has snow arriving by 830pm tomorrow night with moderate snow at midnight with 1" of snow by 1am Monday. Light snow and flurries continue till 6am with 1.5" of snow. Light snow and sleet arrive again by 530pm with moderate IP by midnight - IP over to ZR by 930am with a total of 3" of IP and then another 0.60" of ZR before rising above freezing by noon - Heavy rain all PM with 2.50" of rain before ending late at night with temps rising to 37 degrees 

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Looks like slop, then thunderstorms.. Wait a little while and the weather

changes. A winter that was hyped from the beginning and failed to deliver!!

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All the pieces falling into place for Sun thru early Tues. @The Iceman needs to start all the threat threads from here on out.

That's what we said last year isn't it? He has some good karma. 

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I would mortgage the farm for this one, got to get the taste of what feels like 100" rain to 1" snow out of my mouth

So much time for the wheels to come flying off

 

 

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Wxsim with 12z data obviously trended colder and icier based on the latest models. 

It now has snow arriving by 830pm tomorrow night with moderate snow at midnight with 1" of snow by 1am Monday. Light snow and flurries continue till 6am with 1.5" of snow. Light snow and sleet arrive again by 530pm with moderate IP by midnight - IP over to ZR by 930am with a total of 3" of IP and then another 0.60" of ZR before rising above freezing by noon - Heavy rain all PM with 2.50" of rain before ending late at night with temps rising to 37 degrees 

Paul you mentioned before that IP is counted as seasonal snowfall. How would we add that here? As a liquid equivalent with a 10:1 ratio?? Do we just take a standard snow board measurement? Anyone else feel free to chime in please.

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56 minutes ago, wkd said:

That's what we said last year isn't it? He has some good karma. 

I lost mine somewhere. Last one at range (5 days+) I started was the January 2016 Blizzard. Since then I've had several failed threads even at 3 days range. Yes, let Iceman handle it from here out.

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45 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Cut back a little in PA for wave two. 4-6" event for this entire region. 

 

So 2-3" with wave 1 and another 2-3" with wave 2? Is that correct Red?

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paul you mentioned before that IP is counted as seasonal snowfall. How would we add that here? As a liquid equivalent with a 10:1 ratio?? Do we just take a standard snow board measurement? Anyone else feel free to chime in please.

Straight 1:1 measurement, no conversion. Maybe clear your snowboard pre-sleet if you want to measure what has fallen vs. snow depth.

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