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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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41 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Needs a lot of improvements for sure cause if the 12 looks anything like this then we're in trouble!

ecmwf_T850_neus_1.png

Thats a great LP placement...oh and it's been consistent...remember that's a low that transfers to the coast...has shown that since yesterday. Th primary takes over and we are left with an inverted trough and plenty of cold air on the backside. If that low was up near WNY or Southern Ontario alarm bells would be going off.

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I don't know about anybody else in the area but I know my area is in the midst of a nice ice storm! Has to be at least a quarter inch accretion already and it looks like it's just going to continue as the National Weather Service is now saying we might not get above freezing so that doesn't bode well for this evenings commute in the Syracuse area

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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The long range is full of cutter...suppressed system...cutter....suppressed opportunities.
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the long range as the models are having enough of a hard time with the short range, lol!

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6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the long range as the models are having enough of a hard time with the short range, lol!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Very good point!

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For those in the Lake Erie belts, photos from atop the RF2 Coaster at work here just west of Erie from this afternoon. Pretty much ice free, as far as i could see either direction. Little cloudy, but i think it shows the open water. Was pretty much locked up as late as Sat. 2/2/19 of this past weekend. LES in the cards again if any cold air appears.

20190206_145220_resized.thumb.jpg.1c0a3a99edbb47a68424fd6302d6038b.jpg20190206_145230_resized.thumb.jpg.53a749214f0b74a786e537bc47dee0e9.jpg

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Looking pretty rainy for the next few weeks. I was also looking at some spring outlooks and the consensus seems to be that we flip from winter to spring in early-mid march. Theres going to be a tiny window at the end of February for some winter weather. 

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5 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Don’t get too excited, it’s still a week out. 

The only thing I'm tracking is the status of my flight out to Arizona next Friday.  A few days of golf to get far away this miserable weather. Bring the Blowtorches!

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

This looks good for you Matt..

GFS also shows a West wind for about 12hours, so we'll see ..

 

snku_acc.us_ne (11).png

snku_acc.us_ne (12).png

Looks much better. Great for me with upsloping doing its job. Now can we hold it for a day and a half?!!?

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1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

Looking pretty rainy for the next few weeks. I was also looking at some spring outlooks and the consensus seems to be that we flip from winter to spring in early-mid march. Theres going to be a tiny window at the end of February for some winter weather. 

It has been Spring. Like a late March pattern.

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1 hour ago, MAIDEsNow.2 said:

For those in the Lake Erie belts, photos from atop the RF2 Coaster at work here just west of Erie from this afternoon. Pretty much ice free, as far as i could see either direction. Little cloudy, but i think it shows the open water. Was pretty much locked up as late as Sat. 2/2/19 of this past weekend. LES in the cards again if any cold air appears.

20190206_145220_resized.thumb.jpg.1c0a3a99edbb47a68424fd6302d6038b.jpg20190206_145230_resized.thumb.jpg.53a749214f0b74a786e537bc47dee0e9.jpg

great pics, I would of thought there would be some ice by the shore 

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Those winds tomorrow night are gonna shift the lake ice all around... maybe open up a few spots for some activity off Erie as well once the front passes and temps crash?

caf5909b686345090cae41aea1847ba5.gif

I’m also curious about this spot on the north shore. Clouds have blocked the MODIS view since Monday but that last shot showed a nice area of thin slush ice or possibly no ice? Considering we’ve stayed on the warmer side since this shot one would assume it could still be in play even though the charts are showing a solid ice pack?

9ae94ce7693a97d1c1e3d80de0df8e64.jpg


.

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NAM thinks there is some open water in play as well. Trying to setup a band over the city for a couple hours. Not spitting out more than an inch or two but still interesting to see the lake still putting up a fight!

865008905b9fb50b00c4118b44504fc7.jpg


.

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I can see it taking shape already via models. Northern Tug gets hit, quickly swings through the Southern Tug, and settles south of here.

This winter has literally been the same song and dance with every event. No need to watch any of the news outlets.

My wife went and sat on our enclosed back porch during our warm day yesterday and had a mosquito attacking her. With that sign of spring approaching, I am getting closer to calling it...this winter has burned me out.

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Looking forward to tracking this cold front passage. Looks like it will be pretty wild with strong winds for a couple hours and flash freezing. Though the strong winds tend to dry things off quickly.

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24 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Euro caved to the GFS, lol! No transfer and we rain from beginning to end, I'm done, see everyone next season!

I don’t know the details of what the Euro is showing but the GFS gives us a 3-6 inch front end thump before changing to rain and the FV3 keeps enough of a coastal development to keep it mostly snow over us. GFS then follows up with a snow event the following weekend. What about the lake effect potential for tomorrow night?  It looks like southern Oswego County will finally get into this one.   Do we need a 2 foot forecast to get excited?  Freak, I love your penchant for hyperbole but you and I both know you’re not going anywhere. 

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