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John1122

January 23-27th 2019 Short Term Winter Threats.

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There are several threats of snow/ice/rain coming over the Wednesday afternoon-Sunday period per most all modeling and area forecast offices. After the cold front passes on Wednesday there is potentially a change over and also a wave of low pressure riding up the front that may cause accumulating ice and snow on the back side. After that system passes a series of Northern stream disturbances ride down into the Valley region behind the system. These clippers have the potential to bring further accumulating snow and very cold temps to the entire forum area. 

From Wednesday-Sunday the GFS/Euro/FV3 gives most of the forum various amounts of accumulating frozen precip during the events. There are several to come after this potentially, so this will hopefully allow the main pattern thread to discuss the threats further down the road and the overall look through the rest of the month into February while allowing the short term threats room for disco.

The latest GFS has the ice threat and it puts down 1-6+ inches of snow forum wide for the next three events, the final one has the potential to be the biggest threat of the 3 as it swings down into the GOM and may warrant a thread of it's own.

zr_acc.us_ov.png

snku_acc.us_ov.png

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FV3 is a day later with event #3. It is a major deep south snow storm, but the snow shield shifted well NW of 18z at 0z.  This one, as I said, may be thread worthy on it's own at some point a few days from now. 

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18z FV3 vs 0z showing a shift more NW with the low track. The day prior it swings down and there's a brief return flow from the GOM into our area as the low forms in the Gulf. 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

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The Euro dumped snow over Alabama and Middle Tennessee in the later period here, the precip dies out with the LP in the Gulf, the storm then runs up the coast and gets Western NC. It basically does everything in it's power to not snow very much over far western or far eastern Valley areas. But Mobile Alabama and the Florida beaches near the Alabama line get 5-8 inches of snow. 3-5 in most of Alabama and Middle Tennessee. 1-2 in the eastern valley and western valley areas.  The low is in the 990s in Northern Florida and there's not much more than a flurry near Johnson County as it turns up the coast.

The Euro has nothing to speak of in the mid-week event. Maybe 30 minutes of frozen on the very back edge for some areas.

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z JAN21
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
MON 00Z 21-JAN  -4.3   -11.1     125       0    34005           0.00            
MON 06Z 21-JAN  -5.7   -11.1     125       0    04006           0.01            
MON 12Z 21-JAN  -7.4    -8.0     125       0    05005           0.00            
MON 18Z 21-JAN  -0.8    -4.3     127       0    08005           0.00            
TUE 00Z 22-JAN  -1.6    -0.6     129    3403    09004           0.00            
TUE 06Z 22-JAN  -2.8     3.3     131    7569    15006           0.00            
TUE 12Z 22-JAN  -0.5     3.2     131    8477    17009           0.00            
TUE 18Z 22-JAN   7.4     2.1     131   10648    17012           0.00            
WED 00Z 23-JAN   7.9     4.3     133   10535    16011           0.00            
WED 06Z 23-JAN   8.9     7.1     134    9343    17014           0.00            
WED 12Z 23-JAN  10.3     6.9     134    9772    18015           0.02            
WED 18Z 23-JAN  12.9     7.3     135    8939    19010           0.09            
THU 00Z 24-JAN   4.0     4.6     133    8398    34007           0.92            
THU 06Z 24-JAN  -0.8     0.1     129    2850    32008           0.37            
THU 12Z 24-JAN  -3.9    -4.1     127       0    32008           0.00            
THU 18Z 24-JAN   2.9    -4.0     129     506    29005           0.00            
FRI 00Z 25-JAN   1.6    -5.9     130    1659    29005           0.00            
FRI 06Z 25-JAN  -1.6    -9.3     127       0    32009           0.00            
FRI 12Z 25-JAN -10.0   -10.9     124       0    32006           0.00            
FRI 18Z 25-JAN  -3.0    -7.8     126       0    31002           0.00            
SAT 00Z 26-JAN  -3.8    -3.4     128       0    16005           0.00            
SAT 06Z 26-JAN  -1.8     0.1     129    3485    19007           0.00            
SAT 12Z 26-JAN  -1.2    -3.7     129       0    18006           0.00            
SAT 18Z 26-JAN   1.9    -5.0     129     510    21004           0.03            
SUN 00Z 27-JAN   0.1    -6.9     128      97    34005           0.18            
SUN 06Z 27-JAN  -4.5    -8.0     127       0    34008           0.11            
SUN 12Z 27-JAN  -7.4    -8.3     126       0    36008           0.04            
SUN 18Z 27-JAN  -2.0    -7.3     127       0    35007           0.00            
MON 00Z 28-JAN  -4.6    -5.5     128       0    35006           0.00            
MON 06Z 28-JAN  -9.5    -4.1     128       0    35005           0.00            
MON 12Z 28-JAN  -7.9    -3.0     128       0    33002           0.00            
MON 18Z 28-JAN   2.3    -0.6     130    1030    24002           0.00            
TUE 00Z 29-JAN  -0.7     1.9     131    5897    18005           0.00            
TUE 06Z 29-JAN  -4.2     0.9     131    5779    21006           0.00            
TUE 12Z 29-JAN  -2.7    -1.3     130    3957    19003           0.00            
TUE 18Z 29-JAN   4.8     0.0     131    4061    16002           0.00            
WED 00Z 30-JAN   2.1    -0.6     131    3544    05004           0.00            
WED 06Z 30-JAN   0.7     1.0     131    4975    34003           0.01            
WED 12Z 30-JAN   0.1     1.0     131    5544    35004           0.11            
WED 18Z 30-JAN   2.4     2.1     131    5918    00003           0.12            
THU 00Z 31-JAN   1.0     1.6     131    6304    03005           0.31            

 

 

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The GFS has Plateau and Middle Tennessee snow, as well as Southern Kentucky. The FV3 is still a major winter storm. It's crazy how long it's held onto that solution. 

Northern stream energy of various strength will rotate through from Thursday - Sunday with Sunday into Monday perhaps being a bigger system, or perhaps it gets buried OTS.

My point forecast from MRX has them with pretty high pops for a change over to snow/sleet then snow Wednesday night with chances of snow all the way through Sunday.

Wednesday Night

Rain before midnight, then rain, snow, and sleet between midnight and 1am, then snow likely after 1am. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Thursday

A 30 percent chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31.

Thursday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Friday

A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 26.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Saturday

A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

Saturday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Sunday

A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30.

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The FV3 stuck to it's guns on post frontal snow again Wednesday.  At this point I'm curious to see when/if it's going to give in before the event. This time it gives everyone from 40 north, Nash, Cookeville, Knox, Morristown to Tri a burst of heavy snow. I can't believe it's true, but if it's not, it's crazy that the upgrade to the GFS is performing this poorly, this close to the event. 

snku_acc.us_ov.png

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The FV3 stuck to it's guns on post frontal snow again Wednesday.  At this point I'm curious to see when/if it's going to give in before the event. This time it gives everyone from 40 north, Nash, Cookeville, Knox, Morristown to Tri a burst of heavy snow. I can't believe it's true, but if it's not, it's crazy that the upgrade to the GFS is performing this poorly, this close to the event. 

snku_acc.us_ov.png

The fv3 was so awesome on the december storm that i remember thinking wow this is great.  Anecdotally speaking, seems to be erratic since then.  

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GFS continues to show heavy back side snow, for Thursday-Friday

Recent history tells me, I should remain skeptical at best. 

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47 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

GFS continues to show heavy back side snow, for Thursday-Friday

Recent history tells me, I should remain skeptical at best. 

If a wave develops on the front, there's a chance, if the front just breezes on through the SE, not much will happen.

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MRX says light accumulation here Wednesday into Thursday. That's usually their wording for 1-3 inches. Up to a 50 percent chance of snow Saturday night. The short waves rotating from the NW over the next few days change their timing with almost every run.

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2 hours ago, Kasper said:

I’m going to start my Southern Valley snow dance Lol

 

I hope its got the extra special sauce...the 0z gfs just cut totals to a non-event

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9 hours ago, John1122 said:

MRX says light accumulation here Wednesday into Thursday. That's usually their wording for 1-3 inches. Up to a 50 percent chance of snow Saturday night. The short waves rotating from the NW over the next few days change their timing with almost every run.

MRX not impressed in am disco. Higher elevations may get an inch of snow after we all get our 2 inches of rain.

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NAM kinda opening the door again for the midweek system. Looks like maybe, as Carver's suggested, models even this near the event struggling with what to do with a wave riding up the front out of the Gulf. 

Euro looked similar.

giphy.gif 

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NAM kinda opening the door again for the midweek system. Looks like maybe, as Carver's suggested, models even this near the event struggling with what to do with a wave riding up the front out of the Gulf. 

Euro looked similar.

giphy.gif 

Saw that too,  it’s nice to still have dice on the table honestly.  Just wish there was more models on board with that solution.  We will see though, T-24 hours!

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The FV3 backed off somewhat but still has 1-3+ inch totals with the system. Still some areas of .25+ freezing rain as well.

  She’s or he’s a stubborn model that’s for sure.  It has certainly stuck with this solution for an alarmingly long amount of time.  

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Most modeling is now showing a heavy burst of snow on the backside, whether that actually happens or not is still to be determined. The ground is cold and will be wet, I once ready that wet ground actually wasn't as bad as warmer dry ground for sticking.  I'm sure above 2500 here will do okay but not sure how the rest of us will fare. Southern Kentucky looks pretty good for getting an inch or two for this one too, at least on models. 

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Most modeling is now showing a heavy burst of snow on the backside, whether that actually happens or not is still to be determined. The ground is cold and will be wet, I once ready that wet ground actually wasn't as bad as warmer dry ground for sticking.  I'm sure above 2500 here will do okay but not sure how the rest of us will fare. Southern Kentucky looks pretty good for getting an inch or two for this one too, at least on models. 

I’m more interested in mid week next week, but a quick burst of snow from this would be a nice surprise 

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Just now, Reb said:

I’m more interested in mid week next week, but a quick burst of snow from this would be a nice surprise 

The models are so terrible right now that I'm looking for one in the hand instead of two in the bush! Two days ago the models had 3 threats in this 5 day stretch. Now they maybe have a small threat tomorrow night and maybe snow showers this weekend. MRX has taken 3 different 50+ percent chances out of my forecast for this time period.

That said, I'm holding out hope for next week but have no expectations anything actually happens.

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The 0Z NAM is back to being a significant winter storm for the middle valley areas. LP develops on the front and tracks up the Apps. Nash and Northern Middle gets some heavy icing, and 2-4 inches of snowfall on the eastern Highland Rim, Northern Middle, Southern Kentucky. North of Nashville the snow and ice overlap. 

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